The Washington Commanders will look to keep pace in the NFC East as they host the Chicago Bears for a Monday Night Football showdown.
This could be a great day for offensive stars on both sides of the ball, and I’m looking at Jayden Daniels, DJ Moore, and Jacory Croskey-Merritt to clear their NFL player props.
Let’s take a look at my favorite prop bets for our Bears vs. Commanders predictions as I break down my free NFL picks for Monday, October 13.
Bears vs Commanders MNF props
| Player | Pick |  |
|---|---|---|
 Jayden Daniels |
Over 1.5 passing TDS | +110 |
 DJ Moore |
Over 3.5 receptions | -120 |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt |
Over 67.5 rushing yards | -110 |
Jayden Daniels Over 1.5 passing TDs
Jayden Daniels hasn’t produced huge numbers in his first three starts this season, but I don’t think anyone in D.C. is panicking about his performance just yet. Daniels has four touchdowns without a pick and has thrown for at least 200 yards in each game, hardly numbers worth worrying about.
Looking back to last year, Daniels picked up the pace as the season went on, throwing for two or more touchdowns in each of his last five complete regular-season games. He also went on to do so in his first two playoff games.
The Chicago Bears have been allowing far too much success in the passing game, with opposing quarterbacks completing 73.7% of their throws while allowing 7.5 yards per attempt. That has inevitably led to plenty of scoring: Chicago allows 29.2 points per game, with four of their five opponents scoring at least 22.
Daniels has been safe with the ball and should convert more big plays (while completing more of his throws) against the Chicago defense. At plus money, the Over on 1.5 touchdown passes is a great bet.
DJ Moore Over 3.5 receptions
While DJ Moore may never be a regular 1,000+ yard receiver, he’s still getting plenty of targets. Moore is second in yardage and receptions to Rome Odunze and has been a consistent option for Caleb Williams as he continues to develop at the NFL level.
After a slow Week 1, Moore has gotten four or more receptions on 5+ targets in each of Chicago’s ensuing games. He’s not breaking long plays down the field, but the consistency of his usage makes him a great target for props bettors.
Like the Bears, the Washington Commanders have some holes in their pass defense. Opposing quarterbacks are averaging 7.5 yards per attempt and have an overall QB rating of 98.6 while completing an average of 20 passes per game.
But even against a better passing defense, I’d still like Moore to hit the Over here. His steady usage on short-to-medium routes means he’ll always be an important and regular option for Williams, and I don’t see that changing anytime soon.
Jacory Croskey-Merritt Over 67.5 rushing yards
I was fooled a bit when Jacory Croskey-Merritt’s numbers dipped for the Commanders last month. But Croskey-Merritt came back in a big way in the October 5 win over the Los Angeles Chargers, running the ball 14 times for 111 yards and two touchdowns.
There will always be ups and downs for rookies, so perhaps we never should have been worried about Croskey-Merritt’s reduced workload after all. It’s only natural for a team to take time to fully integrate a new weapon into its offense.
But there are a couple of reasons why Monday’s matchup looks especially good for the former Arizona Wildcats star. For one, the Commanders are dealing with a few injuries in the passing game, which likely means a greater emphasis on the running game to move the chains. The Bears have also allowed 6.1 yards per rush this year, the worst mark in the NFL.
Croskey-Merritt should be getting more touches in general in the Washington offense, and has a great matchup this week to boot. I’m taking the running back to get Over his rushing yardage total.
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