For all of the Texas Longhorns’ faults, do not rule them entirely out of the College Football Playoff picture just yet. If they suffer a third loss on the season to the Vanderbilt Commodores this weekend, though, then dismiss the Longhorns.
A loss would not outright end the Commodores’ Playoff hopes, but it would remove them from genuine SEC title consideration.
My Vanderbilt vs. Texas predictions and college football picks expect these stakes to inspire conservative game plans from both Clark Lea and Steve Sarkisian, plans dependent on the ground game at kickoff at 12 ET on Saturday, November 1.
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Vanderbilt vs Texas prediction
Vanderbilt vs Texas best bet: Sedrick Alexander anytime touchdown (+150)
Diego Pavia is many things, almost all of them good. But he has yet to shine on the road against a genuinely tough opponent. All due respect to both Virginia Tech and South Carolina, but those wins from earlier in the season were always seen as less impressive than some claimed, simply expecting both the Hokies and the Gamecocks to flounder this season. (Insert a laugh at Shane Beamer here.)
Pavia excelled in both those early-season moments, but to start October, he completed only 60% of his passes for a meek 5.7 yards per attempt at Alabama, turning over the ball to end multiple promising drives.
Last season, Pavia and Vanderbilt won at Auburn and at Kentucky, but neither necessarily warranted applause. His completion percentage fell drastically at Missouri and LSU.
The Commodores will be best served taking the ball out of Pavia’s hands a bit more at Texas, just to rein him in and keep him playing within himself.
In other words, Vanderbilt should lean on a running back that has scored at least once in six of its seven games against Power Four opponents. Handing off to and finding Sedric Alexander in the flat has repeatedly paid off for the Commodores. Trusting him in the most important moments may be crucial to Vanderbilt finding its fourth SEC win of the season, a mark the program has reached only three times in the last 40 years.
Vanderbilt vs Texas same-game parlay
It increasingly looks like Arch Manning will play, though that is not a certainty yet as of Thursday afternoon. Manning has rushed for six touchdowns this season, but for just one since September. Against Vanderbilt's underappreciated rushing defense, deploying Manning in the running game could be a remembered necessity.
Vanderbilt vs Texas SGP
- Sedrick Alexander Touchdown
- Arch Manning Touchdown
Our deep-ball SGP: Slow out of the gate
Look for Steve Sarkisian to be tentative in his initial attacks on Clark Lea's defense in an attempt to better understand weaknesses for the second half. And look for Lea to slow down Diego Pavia in his first road game since costing Vanderbilt at Alabama in an attempt to keep Pavia within himself rather than doing too much.
Vanderbilt vs Texas SGP
- Sedrick Alexander Touchdown
- Arch Manning Touchdown
- First Half Under 23.5
Vanderbilt vs Texas odds
- Spread: Vanderbilt +2.5 | Texas -2.5
- Moneyline: Vanderbilt +128 | Texas -154
- Over/Under: Over 46.5 | Under 46.5
Vanderbilt vs Texas trend to know
Vanderbilt has gone 5-1 against the spread on the road in SEC play during Diego Pavia’s two seasons in a Commodores’ helmet. Find more college football betting trends for Vanderbilt vs Texas.
How to watch Vanderbilt vs Texas
| Location | DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium, Austin, TX |
| Date | Saturday, November 1, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 12:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ABC |
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Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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