Coming off one of the most shocking, upset-filled Saturdays in college football history, programs ranked in the AP Top 25 should find some reprieve in Week 8.
The Saturday slate features just two ranked matchups, and my Week 8 college football Top 25 predictions back both favorites to cover at home.
Despite last week being all about the underdogs, my Week 8 Top 25 college football picks are heavy on the favorites.
College football Top 25 predictions & watchability ratings: Week 8
(Confidence legend: 🟢 = high, 🟡 = medium, ⚪ = low)
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| Matchup | Watch Rating |
Pick |  Probability |
|---|---|---|---|
 Houstonvs.  Utah |
5/5 | -6.5 🟡 |
50% |
 Ole Missvs.  Texas |
5/5 | -3.5 ⚪ |
47% |
 LSUvs.  Auburn |
4/5 | -7.5 ⚪ |
47% |
 Indianavs.  Michigan |
4/5 | -7.5 🟡 |
48% |
 Tennesseevs.  South Carolina |
4/5 | +2.5 🟡 |
50% |
 Iowavs.  Minnesota |
3/5 | -6.5 🟢 |
53% |
 Texas A&Mvs.  Alabama |
3/5 | -13.5 🟡 |
52% |
 USCvs.  Wisconsin |
3/5 | -1.5 🟡 |
56% |
 Iowa Statevs.  Arizona |
3/5 | -10.5 🟢 |
48% |
 Pittvs.  Miami |
2/5 | -20.5 ⚪ |
46% |
 Texas Techvs.  Cincinnati |
2/5 | -10.5 🟢 |
50% |
 BYUvs.  UCF |
2/5 | -6.5 🟢 |
53% |
 Michigan Statevs.  UCLA |
2/5 | -14.5 🟡 |
46% |
 Vanderbiltvs.  Kentucky |
2/5 | -10.5 🟡 |
51% |
 Rutgersvs.  Northwestern |
1/5 | -16.5 🟡 |
50% |
 Calvs.  SMU |
1/5 | +20.5 ⚪ |
53% |
 Boise Statevs.  Washington State |
1/5 | -13.5 🟢 |
50% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Tier 1 watchability for Week 8 (must-watch)
Houston (14) vs Utah (10)
- Game info: Saturday, Oct. 24 | 10:15 p.m. ET | ESPN
- ATS pick: Utah -6.5 🟡
- ML pick: Utah (68%) 🟢
- Over/Under pick: Over 56.5 🟡
For the second straight week, College GameDay is in the Beehive State, and — once again — the host team is poised to win big. Last week, BYU shocked everyone by beating Notre Dame, and this week, Utah should pull off a decisive win against Houston (I like the Utes to cover up to -9.5).
While the Cougars have one of the best offenses in the country, their defense will be the death of them on the road against Utah. Houston has one of the worst defenses in the Power Four, ranking 111th nationally in net EPA per play, 115th in EPA per pass, and 107th in early-down EPA per play.
Its offense has made up for its defense, but this is a major letdown spot for Willie Fritz's program after winning a Top-25 game last week in a shootout with Oklahoma State. The Cougars allowed 499 total yards and 8.5 yards per play to the Pokes, and this Utah offense has the talent to put up similar numbers.
Led by Devon Dampier, Utah ranks 14th nationally in available yards percentage (59.4%), 17th in offensive success rate (49.3%), and 14th in points per opportunity (4.80). But Morgan Scalley's defense poses the bigger problem for Houston.
Utah's defense ranks sixth nationally in success rate allowed (36.9%) and is in the Top 20 in points per opportunity allowed (2.73). The Cougars turn games into shootouts, but a few stops by the Utes' defense should be enough to win by double digits. It would be Utah's first-ever win against Houston.
Ole Miss (7) vs Texas (19)
- Game info: Saturday, Oct. 24 | 7:30 p.m. ET | ABC
- ATS pick: Texas -3.5 ⚪
- ML pick: Texas (58%) ⚪
- Over/Under pick: Over 53.5 ⚪
This game is fun because it pits one of college football's most improbable superstar quarterbacks against the prodigal son of football's first family. While Trinidad Chambliss has played like the Heisman Trophy contender he was billed as, and Arch Manning has been the most disappointing QB in college football, Texas can win and cover up to -5.5 at home.
Chambliss is coming off one of his worst games as Ole Miss' starting QB, with just a 65.7% adjusted completion percentage against Missouri. If his inaccuracy continues into Week 8, he'll struggle against a Texas defense ranked third nationally in net adjusted EPA per play.
Although the Longhorns will likely be without star pass rusher Colin Simmons, their defense should still frustrate an offense that relies so heavily on Chambliss to wear a cape. Texas ranks in the Top 25 in havoc rate (20%), success rate (38.3%), and available yards percentage (31.2%).
The Ole Miss defense is also vulnerable, ranking 65th nationally in success rate (43.5%) and allowing 390 yards per game, the most in the SEC. The Rebels have been particularly bad at stopping the run, so Texas' ground game should help take the pressure off Manning.
Ole Miss has been a high-variance team (3-3 ATS), and this is just its second true road game against a ranked opponent this season. In the last one, the Rebels lost by 28 to Florida.
Texas, meanwhile, has everything on the line, with Steve Sarkisian's seat heating up, and I expect the Longhorns to rise to the occasion.
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Tier 2 watchability for Week 8 (worth watching)
LSU (18) vs Auburn
- Game info: Saturday, Oct. 24 | noon ET | ABC
- ATS pick: LSU -7.5 ⚪
- ML pick: LSU (71%) 🟡
- Over/Under pick: Under 51.5 🟡
It's been a crazy week for Auburn after knocking off Georgia in Week 7. It marked the first time since 1990 that a No. 1-ranked team lost to unranked programs in consecutive weeks. Auburn also dismissed its best defensive player, Xavier Atkins, this week after he was suspended for the Georgia game.
Riding high from the win, Auburn will come back down to earth against Lane Kiffin and LSU. Although Auburn beat the Bulldogs, it posted the lowest net success rate of any Week 7 winner. It capitalized on turnovers and a late penalty to get into field-goal range for the win.
As long as LSU QB Sam Leavitt plays within himself, Kiffin's team can cover up to -8.5 on the road. LSU's defense ranks second in the country in sacks (27) and fifth in havoc rate (21.7%) ... it's going to be hell for an Auburn offense that's allowed the fourth-most sacks in the country (23).
Byrum Brown is one of college football's most dangerous dual-threat QBs, but his pressure-to-sack rate is through the roof (32.1%). If Blake Baker's defense keys in on stopping him as a runner, Auburn will struggle to crack 20 points.
Indiana (6) vs Michigan
- Game info: Saturday, Oct. 24 | noon ET | FOX
- ATS pick: Indiana -7.5 🟡
- ML pick: Indiana (71%) 🟢
- Over/Under pick: Under 41.5 ⚪
One team is coming off a heartbreaking loss, while the other is coming off a potentially season-shifting win. However, having Tommy Carr come off the bench to beat an underachieving Penn State team is a lot different from asking him to make his first career start against the defending national champions.
Indiana was literally an out-of-bounds foot away from upsetting Ohio State, a national championship favorite, last week. After a high-profile loss like that, I expect Curt Cignetti to be champing at the bit to have his Hoosiers reassert themselves as Big Ten contenders, and I'd take Indiana to cover up to -8.5.
Michigan's offense has failed to score more than 21 points in five of its six games, and Carr doesn't offer enough upside to change that against an Indiana defense that's in the Top 25 in havoc rate (19.3%), tackles for loss per game (7.86), and success rate allowed (37.9%).
Covering will come down to Josh Hoover, Charlie Becker, and Nick Marsh taking advantage of a Wolverines defense that ranks 41st in opponent pass success rate (41.2%) and hasn't faced an aerial attack this strong all season (seventh in EPA per pass). In the end, Michigan won't score enough to cover.
Tennessee (11) vs South Carolina
- Game info: Saturday, Oct. 24 | 3:30 p.m. ET | ESPN/Disney+
- ATS pick: Tennessee +2.5 🟡
- ML pick: Tennessee (45%) 🟡
- Over/Under pick: Under 50.5 ⚪
South Carolina is one of the hardest teams in the SEC to gauge, and its ability to compete has depended on which version of LaNorris Sellers shows up. But I don't see this being a letdown spot for a Tennessee team that just smoked victory cigars after upsetting Alabama.
This isn't a great matchup for a Gamecocks offense that lacks playmakers at receiver and has issues with Sellers holding the ball too long. He has the 14th-longest throw time in the Power Four (2.99 seconds). Tennessee's defensive line is arguably the best in college football. It leads the sport in quick-pressure rate and ranks third in havoc rate (22.9%).
The inside-outside combo of Xavier Gilliam and Tyree Weathersby (45 combined pressures and 11.5 sacks) should wreck South Carolina's offense. Those two are the biggest reason I'd take Tennessee to win outright as a road underdog, but DeSean Bishop isn't far behind.
Bishop is the best running back in college football right now, and he should help Josh Heupel's offense expose a Gamecocks defense that's 110th in opponent rush success rate (47.6%). This could be a race to 27 points, and I like Bishop to win that race.
Tier 3 watchability for Week 8 (interesting)
Iowa (15) vs Minnesota
- Game info: Saturday, Oct. 24 | 3:30 p.m. ET | FS1
- ATS pick: Iowa -6.5 🟢
- ML pick: Iowa (69%) 🟢
- Over/Under pick: Over 40.5 ⚪
Minnesota already ended one losing streak this year by reclaiming the Little Brown Jug against Michigan. Can the Golden Gophers end another by winning the Floyd of Rosedale against Iowa? I doubt it, and I'd take the Hawkeyes to cover -8.5 or better.
Iowa has beaten Minnesota in 10 of the last 11 rivalry meetings, and Kirk Ferentz announced earlier this week he's sticking with the hot hand at QB in Jeremy Hecklinski. Before Iowa's Week 7 bye, Hecklinski put up a 90.4 QBR and helped the Hawkeyes turn in one of their best offensive performances in recent memory against Washington (41 points, 465 yards).
Before their Week 7 bye, the Golden Gophers lost by 28 to a Purdue team that just took a double-digit L against Washington.
Iowa has one of the best offensive lines in the country yet again and should neutralize Minnesota's strength, its front seven, while its defense (No. 22 in net adjusted EPA per play) shuts down a Gophers offense that's scored 20 or fewer points in three of four FBS games.
Texas A&M vs Alabama (13)
- Game info: Saturday, Oct. 24 | 3:30 p.m. ET | ABC
- ATS pick: Alabama -13.5 🟡
- ML pick: Alabama (83%) 🟢
- Over/Under pick: Over 50.5 🟡
Did Alabama lose back-to-back regular-season games for the first time since 2007? Yes. But those losses came at the hands of Georgia and Tennessee, two teams with top-notch trench play — an area where Texas A&M is sorely lacking after sending so many linemen to the NFL.
The Aggies have looked so bad against quality SEC teams that I'd take the Crimson Tide to cover as many as 16.5 points at home. Against teams ranked in the Top 50 by SP+, Texas A&M is 0-3 against the spread and has been outscored by an average of 31-11. Alabama is ranked No. 12 by SP+.
Marcel Reed has been unplayable in those games, posting an adjusted completion percentage below 60% in all three, with one TD pass to five interceptions. Alabama's defense is strong enough to take advantage, ranking 10th in net adjusted EPA per play allowed.
Keelon Russell should do enough to help Alabama, which ranks in the Top 25 in offensive success rate (50.1%), pull away by multiple touchdowns.
USC (16) vs Wisconsin
- Game info: Saturday, Oct. 24 | 7:30 p.m. ET | NBC
- ATS pick: USC -1.5 🟡
- ML pick: USC (57%) 🟡
- Over/Under pick: Over 50.5 🟡
The last time USC took the field, it won and covered on the East Coast, beating Penn State by eight points. Obviously, the Trojans have defensive issues, but they've consistently beaten offensively challenged teams. That's why I like USC to cover up to -2.5 against a Wisconsin offense that's ranked 95th in success rate (42%).
Lincoln Riley's team winning on the road will come down to his offense vs. the Badgers' defense, and I think USC has the edge. The Trojans rank in the Top 10 nationally in offensive success rate (51.6%). Coming off a bye, Jayden Maiava's top playmakers will be healthy.
USC's most disruptive defender, Jahkeem Stewart, is also expected to play. He's listed as probable, and alongside Kameryn Crawford and Luke Wafle, he should be a problem for Wisconsin to block. The Badgers have one of the worst run games in the country, sitting 115th in success rate (39.2%).
Iowa State vs Arizona (25)
- Game info: Saturday, Oct. 24 | 7:30 p.m. ET | ESPN2
- ATS pick: Arizona -10.5 🟢
- ML pick: Arizona (75%) 🟢
- Over/Under pick: Over 50.5 🟡
Brent Brennan continues to be one of the most underrated coaches in the country, with Arizona off to a 5-1 start after beating its last four opponents by double digits. Iowa State, on the other hand, has failed to cover in each of its last two games against ranked opponents. The Cyclones don't have a chance... I like the Wildcats up to -12.5.
In three games against top-30 defenses by SP+ (all losses), Iowa State is averaging just 13.3 points per game. Cyclones QB Jaylen Raynor has accounted for more turnover-worthy plays (five) than TD passes (three).
Arizona's defense also ranks in the Top 30 by SP+ and has held opponents to 10.3 points per game at home. But the bigger problem for Iowa State should be the Wildcats offense led by Noah Fifita. Fifita ranks in the Top 20 nationally in QBR (81.7), TD passes (16), and has Arizona 12th in EPA per pass.
Fifita & Co. should run away with this in Tucson.
Tier 4 watchability for Week 8 (blowout brewing)
Pitt vs Miami (1)
- Game info: Saturday, Oct. 24 | noon ET | ESPN/Disney+
- ATS pick: Miami -20.5 ⚪
- ML pick: Miami (92%) 🟢
- Over/Under pick: Over 48.5 🟡
The refs bailed Miami out against Florida State last week, and if Pitt QB Mason Heintschel weren't out for the season, I'd be all in on a classic "Pat Narduzzi scares the hell out of a ranked team before losing" type of game. But without Heintschel, Pitt is 0-2 ATS in its last two games, losing both outright as a favorite.
Those games were against North Carolina and Boston College, both of which have offenses ranked outside the Top 70 by SP+. The Hurricanes offense is ranked No. 1, leads the country in pass success rate (58.8%), and has an unstoppable connection between Darian Mensah and Malachi Toney.
To make matters worse, Miami has the best run defense in the country in rush success rate allowed (28.6%), so Pitt can't lean on the ground game to help freshman QB Corey Dailey. Miami's the play at -20.5 or better.
Texas Tech (8) vs Cincinnati
- Game info: Saturday, Oct. 24 | noon ET | FS1
- ATS pick: Texas Tech -10.5 🟢
- ML pick: Texas Tech (79%) 🟢
- Over/Under pick: Under 56.5 🟡
After covering a double-digit spread for a third straight game in its thrashing of Arizona State, Texas Tech is starting to look like the team we were promised. Following a win like that and Cincinnati losing on a walk-off field goal last week to West Virginia, I think the Red Raiders will boat race the downtrodden Bearcats (I like Tech to cover up to -12.5).
Cincinnati has given up 79 points in its last two games and catches a Texas Tech offense, especially its run game, that's clicking. Will Hammond and J'Koby Williams should shred a Bearcats defense that's 106th in success rate (47%), and Cincinnati's run-first approach will struggle against a Tech defense that's allowing the fifth-fewest rushing yards per game (82).
BYU (2) vs UCF
- Game info: Saturday, Oct. 24 | 3:30 p.m. ET | FOX
- ATS pick: BYU -6.5 🟢
- ML pick: BYU (69%) 🟢
- Over/Under pick: Over 43.5 🟡
Is BYU in a letdown spot a week after pulling off one of the biggest wins in program history? Maybe if it were against another program, but UCF has had a tough last two games.
Despite covering against Houston in Week 5, the Knights blew a 17-0 second-half lead to lose 27-17. Then in Week 6, they were tied 21-21 with Oklahoma State in the second half before losing by 14.
The Knights just don't have the consistency on offense to support an underrated defense, and against a Cougars defense ranked top-25 in havoc rate (18.9%) and net adjusted EPA per play allowed, I like BYU to cover up to -9.5.
UCF is still missing starting QB Alonza Barnett III, too, and BYU QB Bear Bachemier is coming off the best game of his career (92.1 QBR vs. Notre Dame).
Michigan State vs UCLA (9)
- Game info: Saturday, Oct. 24 | 3:30 p.m. ET | CBS
- ATS pick: UCLA -14.5 🟡
- ML pick: UCLA (84%) 🟢
- Over/Under pick: Over 45.5 ⚪
Michigan State managed to only lose on a walk-off field goal last week to head coach Pat Fitzgerald's former team, Northwestern, but this week should be a lot worse. After a heartbreaking Week 7 defeat, the Spartans travel over 2,200 miles to play a UCLA program that's one of only two 6-0 ATS teams (BYU is the other).
Bob Chesney is the coach of the year at midseason, and even with backup QB Ty Dieffenbach at the helm, UCLA can cover up to -16.5. Dieffenbach was solid last week against a Wisconsin defense ranked No. 11 by SP+, and his own defense should hammer Michigan State.
The Bruins' defense ranks third nationally in opponent success rate (36.2%).
Vanderbilt vs Kentucky (12)
- Game info: Saturday, Oct. 24 | 7:30 p.m. ET | SEC Network
- ATS pick: Kentucky -10.5 🟡
- ML pick: Kentucky (79%) 🟢
- Over/Under pick: Over 51.5 🟡
Kentucky has been "the cardiac Wildcats" under Will Stein, winning the last three games by a combined 10 points. Still, the Wildcats are getting the job done and are 6-1 ATS. I'd take Kentucky to cover for a sixth straight game at -12.5 or better after how bad Vanderbilt looked last week.
The Commodores were a six-point favorite and lost by double digits to an Arkansas team that had previously been 0-4 ATS vs. Power Four opponents. Vandy's defense is just brutal against the run, ranking 110th in EPA per rush, and Kentucky's run game is one of the best, ranking ninth in success rate (50.8%).
Once Kentucky gets up, its pass rush and ground attack will lead it to an easy double-digit win.
Tier 5 watchability for Week 8 (it's still football)
Rutgers vs Northwestern (24)
- Game info: Saturday, Oct. 24 | noon ET | Peacock
- ATS pick: Northwestern -16.5 🟡
- ML pick: Northwestern (86%) 🟢
- Over/Under pick: Over 57.5 🟡
Northwestern barely beat a bad Michigan State team last week, but the Wildcats should have it much easier this week against a Rutgers defense that's 127th nationally in available yards percentage (59%).
In Chip Kelly's Wing-T-heavy offense, Aidan Chiles and Northwestern should push for 40+ points and cover up to -20.5. If Northwestern stops KJ Duff, Rutgers might not score more than 17 points.
Cal vs SMU (23)
- Game info: Saturday, Oct. 24 | noon ET | The CW
- ATS pick: Cal +20.5 ⚪
- ML pick: SMU (90%) 🟢
- Over/Under pick: Under 54.5 🟡
Cal is one of the worst-coached teams in college football, but SMU is allergic to covering. The Mustangs have covered the spread just once since Week 3, and are 0-2 ATS when favored by 20+ points against an FBS opponent.
Cal is also set to start Jaron Keawe-Sagapolutele again, who has the talent to make enough plays to cover. This is one of the hardest games to feel confident about this week, and I only like Cal +20.5 or better.
Boise State (21) vs Washington State
- Game info: Saturday, Oct. 24 | 6 p.m. ET | USA Network
- ATS pick: Boise State -13.5 🟢
- ML pick: Boise State (82%) 🟢
- Over/Under pick: Under 51.5 🟡
The new Pac-12 has been unkind to Washington State, which has lost all six of its FBS games, five by double digits. Last week, the Cougars were a 17.5-point underdog against Oregon State and lost by 18. This week, they play a Boise State team fresh off a bye.
Well-rested, I like the Broncos to cover -16.5 or better against a Wazzu offense that's one of the worst in the country, ranking 131st in success rate (36.6%). Boise State is top 30 nationally in both offensive (48.2%) and defensive success rate (39.8%), and shouldn't have much trouble in Pullman.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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