On a Saturday full of major conference matchups in Group of Six play, the last G6 game of the day is the one you simply cannot miss.
Closing out Saturday's G6 college football action, and my Week 8 Group of Six picks, is North Dakota State vs. New Mexico in a Mountain West matchup with major College Football Playoff implications.
My G6 college football picks also focus on a massive MAC game proceeding despite a chemical spill, and an advantageous matchup for the lone ranked Group of Six team.
Week 8 Group of 6 college football picks
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| Matchup |  Probability |
|---|---|
 Ricevs  Florida Atlantic |
-7.5 48% |
 Western Michiganvs  Toledo |
-2.5 47% |
 Louisianavs  Southern Miss |
-10.5 49% |
 Boise Statevs  Washington State |
-13.5 50% |
 North Dakota State vs  New Mexico |
-4.5 50% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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CFB Group of 6 picks this week
Rice vs Florida Atlantic: Florida Atlantic -7.5
Midway through Year 2 in Boca Raton, Zach Kittley has already won as many games this season at Florida Atlantic as he did last year (four). FAU is taking flight behind one of the top offenses in the Group of Six, and its passing attack should help it cover up to -9.5 in the battle of the Owls.
Led by QB Caden Veltkamp and arguably the best wide receiver duo in the G6, Kelby Valsin and Easton Messer, FAU's offense ranks 32nd nationally in net EPA per play and 38th in pass success rate (47.6%).
Veltkamp is top 20 in the country in TD passes (15), while Valsin and Messer have a combined 1,148 receiving yards and 10 scores. Rice's defense doesn't have anyone capable of covering them, and ranks just 121st in available yards percentage (58%).
Once FAU builds a lead, it'll be game over for a Rice offense that's 121st in the country in success rate (39.2%) and runs a pistol-triple-option offense that can't throw its way back into games. Rice is the only non-service academy in college football averaging fewer than 100 passing yards per game this season (79.7).
Western Michigan vs Toledo: Toledo -2.5
Not even a chemical spill that caused an evacuation in Toledo earlier this week can stop the best MAC Game of the Year so far... that's MACtion, baby.
Western Michigan and Toledo are a combined 10-4, but WMU is in a letdown spot after winning the Victory Cannon in its rivalry game against Central Michigan last week. Toledo just blew the doors off an Eastern Michigan team that was previously undefeated in MAC play, and the Rockets can cover up to -3.5 against the Broncos in the Glass Bowl.
New Toledo head coach Mike Jacobs has built the most well-rounded team in the MAC, ranking 46th in the country in offensive success rate (46.1%) and 16th in defensive success rate (38.6%). The Rockets' offense is 13th nationally in EPA per pass and can build a lead that Western Michigan's offense won't be able to overcome.
The Broncos have one of the worst passing games in the country and lean heavily on their rushing attack, but Toledo has one of the best run defenses in the country, ranking fourth in success rate (34.1%). It's a worst-case scenario matchup for Western Michigan.
Louisiana vs Southern Miss: Louisiana -10.5
Louisiana is coming off a statement win over Troy, and if the Ragin' Cajuns win the Sun Belt West, they could give James Madison a real scare in the conference championship. Michael Desormeaux's team is competitive in every game and is tied for the best ATS record in the G6 (6-1).
With Lunch Winfield at the helm, Louisiana can cover up to -12.5 against a Southern Miss team that's completely backsliding since Charles Huff left for Memphis. Head coach Blake Anderson is one of the worst in the business, and his Golden Eagles have rarely been competitive against FBS opponents (0-5 straight up, 1-4 ATS).
The Troy team the Ragin' Cajuns just ran all over in a 27-point win beat this Southern Miss team by 19. I'd expect a similar outcome for a Louisiana program that runs the ball and stops the run, making this a terrible matchup for the Golden Eagles.
Louisiana ranks 41st in the country in EPA per rush on offense and 20th in EPA per rush on defense. Southern Miss cannot stop the run, ranking 120th in rush success rate on defense (48.7%), or do much of anything on offense, ranking 102nd in success rate (41.2%).
Boise State vs Washington State: Boise State -13.5
More than one Group of Six team should be ranked in the AP Top 25, but if it's only going to be one, Boise State is the right one. The Broncos have two of the best non-conference wins in the G6 (Memphis, Western Michigan) and are fresh off a bye, ready to trample a Washington State program that's 1-6 and has one of the ugliest offenses in college football.
The Cougars' defense has managed to keep it in games this season, but Boise State's offense is the most efficient in the Group of Six. The Broncos' offense is top 20 nationally in success rate (49%), EPA per pass, EPA per rush, and available yards percentage (60.5%).
They have one of the best QBs in the G6 in Maddux Madsen, who's third in the country in QBR (88.4), and he's not even the team's best player; that's Dylan Riley. Riley is fourth in the country in rushing yards and should break a Washington State defense that's 96th in EPA per rush.
Don't expect Wazzu's offense to give its defense any support either. Kirby Moore's team sits outside the top 130 in pretty much every offensive statistic. I like Boise State to cover -16.5 or better.
North Dakota State vs New Mexico: New Mexico -4.5
Though you won't find it in the watchability ratings for my Top 25 predictions, this is my No. 1 must-watch game of Week 8. North Dakota State and New Mexico are two of only five G6 teams ranked top 40 by SP+, and they're a combined 11-2 this season.
The winner will be alone atop the Mountain West standings and right there with Boise State and James Madison in the G6 CFP race. But the Lobos' home-field advantage and head coach Jason "Jeff" Eck's push to sell out this game is why I'm on New Mexico at -4.5 or better.
The crowd and New Mexico's defense are going to be too much for a North Dakota State offense that scored just seven points in its last road game (13-7 loss to UNLV). The Lobos' defense ranks first nationally in havoc rate (26%), first in available yards percentage (29.2%), and second in success rate (35.3%).
There just won't be enough offense from North Dakota State to cover (the Bison's offense is No. 124 in net adjusted EPA per play), and eventually its defense will break against a New Mexico offense averaging 214.5 rushing yards per game.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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