College Football Predictions Week 8: Brad Powers’ CFB Best Bets

My power ratings put this total at 55, and that’s without accounting for the injury to Texas EDGE Colin Simmons.

Simmons injured his ankle last week vs. Florida and is doubtful to play Ole Miss on Saturday. Simmons is arguably the best defensive player in college football. He leads the nation in sacks (10.5) and tackles for loss (16). He is valuable enough that I downgraded Texas’ team power rating by 0.5 points. 

Texas has already allowed 27 points in each of its last two games. One came against Oklahoma’s No. 113-ranked scoring offense, and last week Florida deployed a backup QB making his first career start.

I expect Ole Miss’ No. 20-ranked scoring offense, led by QB Trinidad Chambliss, to take advantage of Simmons’ absence. The Rebels are coming off two of their better performances of the season. Last week, they finally got a healthy Kewan Lacy at RB, and Ole Miss ran for a season-high 257 yards.

On the other side, it’s officially "now or never" for Texas QB Arch Manning.

He’s always responded well to adversity in the past. Manning has had three games in the last two years where he posted a QBR below 25. The following week, he bounced back with an average QBR of 65. Last week, he posted a 20.5 QBR vs. Florida.

I would play this to 54.5.

I would play this to +15.5.

This is Northwestern's largest point-spread favorite role in Big Ten play since 2018.

Northwestern has been one of the worst teams in the country against the spread as a sizable favorite, going just 35-54 ATS (39%) since 1989 when laying seven or more points.

Last week, Northwestern easily could have lost outright as a 7-point favorite at Michigan State. The Wildcats trailed 21-13 in the fourth quarter and needed a field goal with two seconds remaining to win by three.

On the other side, the market threw Rutgers in the trash after its embarrassing loss to UMass in the opener. The Scarlet Knights have covered three of their last four games. 

That stretch includes a near-upset of USC as a 21-point underdog and last week's outright upset over Maryland as a 5.5-point underdog. The Maryland win was Rutgers' best performance of the season, and it’s clear the Scarlet Knights are still fighting for head coach Greg Schiano.

Finally, I question Northwestern’s need to win by margin. It has Oregon, Iowa, and Ohio State on deck with no bye in between. It's not going to do anything fancy with its starters.

My power ratings make Iowa State a 9-point underdog here, giving us great value across the key number of 10.

Arizona has been the much better statistical team, posting a +2.0 yards-per-play margin (No. 14 nationally). However, Iowa State has played the much tougher schedule, ranking No. 32 in Jeff Sagarin’s strength of schedule ratings, while Arizona’s ranks 75th. 

Additionally, both teams play a slow tempo, making it more difficult for either team to win by a large margin. Iowa State ranks No. 119 in plays per minute while Arizona ranks 99th.

Finally, Iowa State was a little bit banged up on defense before the bye, allowing 500-plus yards to both West Virginia and BYU. However, the Cyclones used the time off to get a little healthier, which will help them stay within double digits of the Wildcats in Week 8.

I would play this to +10.