Despite their flaws, the Texas Longhorns aren’t completely out of the College Football Playoff conversation just yet. However, a third loss — especially to the Vanderbilt Commodores this weekend — would all but seal their fate.
For Vanderbilt, a loss wouldn’t completely crush their Playoff hopes, but it would likely end any serious shot at the SEC title.
My Vanderbilt vs. Texas predictions and college football picks anticipate these high stakes leading to conservative game plans from both Clark Lea and Steve Sarkisian, with each side leaning heavily on the run game when they kick off at 12 p.m. ET on Saturday, November 1.
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Vanderbilt vs Texas prediction
Vanderbilt vs Texas best bet: Sedrick Alexander anytime touchdown (+150)
Diego Pavia is many things, almost all of them good. But he has yet to shine on the road against a genuinely tough opponent. All due respect to both Virginia Tech and South Carolina, but those wins from earlier in the season were always seen as less impressive than some claimed, simply expecting both the Hokies and the Gamecocks to flounder this season. (Insert a laugh at Shane Beamer here.)
Pavia excelled in both those early-season moments, but to start October, he completed only 60% of his passes for a meek 5.7 yards per attempt at Alabama, turning over the ball to end multiple promising drives.
Last season, Pavia and Vanderbilt won at Auburn and at Kentucky, but neither necessarily warranted applause. His completion percentage fell drastically at Missouri and LSU.
The Commodores will be best served taking the ball out of Pavia’s hands a bit more at Texas, just to rein him in and keep him playing within himself.
In other words, Vanderbilt should lean on a running back that has scored at least once in six of its seven games against Power Four opponents. Handing off to and finding Sedric Alexander in the flat has repeatedly paid off for the Commodores. Trusting him in the most important moments may be crucial to Vanderbilt finding its fourth SEC win of the season, a mark the program has reached only three times in the last 40 years.
Vanderbilt vs Texas same-game parlay
It increasingly looks like Arch Manning will play, though that is not a certainty yet as of Thursday afternoon. Manning has rushed for six touchdowns this season, but for just one since September. Against Vanderbilt's underappreciated rushing defense, deploying Manning in the running game could be a remembered necessity.
Vanderbilt vs Texas SGP
- Sedrick Alexander Touchdown
- Arch Manning Touchdown
Our deep-ball SGP: Slow out of the gate
Look for Steve Sarkisian to be tentative in his initial attacks on Clark Lea's defense in an attempt to better understand weaknesses for the second half. And look for Lea to slow down Diego Pavia in his first road game since costing Vanderbilt at Alabama in an attempt to keep Pavia within himself rather than doing too much.
Vanderbilt vs Texas SGP
- Sedrick Alexander Touchdown
- Arch Manning Touchdown
- First Half Under 23.5
Vanderbilt vs Texas game predictions
Vanderbilt vs Texas moneyline prediction
Every instinct may be to trust Vanderbilt to win its third straight game, all with spreads within a field goal. But the narrative want is not necessarily a savvy bet.
Texas has won four straight games, finding ways to victory rather than embarrassing itself out of the gates like it did at Florida. The Longhorns have the better roster, the better defense, and homefield advantage. Just because it is a more boring bet does not mean it is immediately a less profitable one. See also: Unders.
Vanderbilt vs Texas spread prediction
A spread within a field goal matters more and more as college football coaches better understand when and when not to attempt two-point conversions. Recognizing that, it can be argued to take Texas on the moneyline while still betting Vanderbilt at +2.5. That is, effectively, a bet on the Longhorns in the trenches on one particular play, and the trenches are where they should have the most edge.
Vanderbilt vs Texas Over/Under prediction
Vanderbilt’s offense has struggled against the two best defenses it has faced, Alabama’s and Missouri’s, both in the top-20 in the country in expected points added (EPA) per snap against. Those should be weighed more heavily than succeeding against LSU and South Carolina, both of which are a notch below.
A slowed Commodores’ offense will directly help an Under reality. Again, just because it is a more boring bet does not mean it is immediately a less profitable one.
Vanderbilt vs Texas odds
- Spread: Vanderbilt +2.5 | Texas -2.5
- Moneyline: Vanderbilt +128 | Texas -154
- Over/Under: Over 46.5 | Under 46.5
Vanderbilt vs Texas trend to know
Vanderbilt has gone 5-1 against the spread on the road in SEC play during Diego Pavia’s two seasons in a Commodores’ helmet. Find more college football betting trends for Vanderbilt vs Texas.
How to watch Vanderbilt vs Texas
| Location | DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium, Austin, TX |
| Date | Saturday, November 1, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 12:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ABC |
Vanderbilt vs Texas latest injuries
Vanderbilt vs Texas weather
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Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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