Texas and Tennessee play today in a marquee SEC clash at Neyland Stadium in Knoxville, Tenn., with College GameDay and the president's attendance adding to the prestige of Week 4's crown jewel. Kickoff will be at noon ET on ABC, with the Longhorns listed as the 5.5-point favorite and a total of 55.5 as star quarterbacks are set to shine.
My Texas vs. Tennessee prediction and college football picks expect the offenses to open up with offensive fireworks on Sept. 26.
- UPDATE: Texas running back Hollywood Smothers was upgraded to probable on the team's Friday injury report.
Who will win Texas vs Tennessee today? Pick: Tennessee +5.5
We’ll find out today whether Rocky Top will always be home sweet home to Peyton Manning when his nephew, Arch Manning, faces his alma mater in a game I ranked among the must-watch matchups in my Week 4 college football Top 25 predictions.
That's because Tennessee has the talent and offense to play Texas close (I like the Volunteers to cover -4.5 or better). Josh Heupel's offense has scored 42+ points in all three games and ranks Top 20 in success rate (51.4%) and available yards percentage (61.8%).
Another slow start from Manning, who played poorly last week against UTSA (28.8 QBR), will allow Tennessee to hang around, with its veteran offensive line and efficient run game taking pressure off freshman QB Faizon Brandon.
COVERS INTEL: Since Heupel took over at Tennessee in 2021, the Volunteers are 40-28 to the Over and have finished with an offense ranked Top 25 every single year, including three finishes inside the Top 10. This year, Tennessee's offense is ranked No. 3 by SP+.
TOP PICK
Texas vs Tennessee Over/Under pick: Over 55.5
One team has a Heisman Trophy odds contender at QB (Manning), and the other has a five-star freshman who was a Top 10 recruit in this past cycle (Brandon). The pair are poised to flash their first-round traits, but the run games are the biggest reason I like the Over at 56.5 or better.
The Volunteers always have a potent offense under Heupel, and this year's ground attack is lethal with DeSean Bishop playing behind a physical offensive line. The Vols are ranked fourth nationally in EPA per rush and 19th in early-down EPA per play.
Meanwhile, the Longhorns' run game should be just as impactful, even if Hollywood Smothers doesn't play. Manning's legs are an X-factor, and Raleek Brown is one of the best No. 2 running backs in the country. Tennessee's run defense has also been struggling, ranking 91st in EPA per rush.
Texas vs Tennessee combo
If Manning gets off to an iffy start, as he did against Ohio State, or his struggles from the UTSA game bleed into this one, Tennessee can keep this game close, especially in the first half.
Manning is an enigma. His inaccuracies and indecisiveness could allow Jim Knowles' defense to capitalize on missed throws and apply pressure when he holds the ball too long. He has the eighth-highest time to throw in the country (3.19 seconds).
And with the Volunteers' offensive consistency under Heupel, they're bound to hit a big play or two through the air while their physical run game wears down Texas' defense.
Texas vs Tennessee combo
- Over 55.5
- Tennessee team total Over 26.5
- Tennessee first half +2.5
Texas vs Tennessee prop: Tennessee team total Over 26.5
Tennessee has scored at least 27 points in 14 of its last 16 games, and Faizon Brandon has been more than solid in his first three career starts.
The 18-year-old is top 30 nationally in QBR (76.8), and the threat of his legs has opened up the rushing attack (Brandon's six runs of 10+ yards rank top 10 among P4 QBs).
He's one of the most talented QBs head coach Josh Heupel has had running his veer-and-shoot offense, and even against a top defense like Texas', the Vols are poised to score plenty (but I wouldn't take the Over on any number higher than 26.5).
- Top picks: 7-6, +0.25 units
- Combos: 3-10, -0.67 units
Texas vs Tennessee expert picks
- Texas vs Tennessee prediction
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- Texas vs Tennessee computer picks
- Texas vs Tennessee weather report
Texas vs Tennessee odds today
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Spread: Texas -5.5 | Tennessee +5.5
- Over/Under: Over 55.5 (49%) | Under 55.5 (51%)
- Moneyline: Texas 63% | Tennessee 37%
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Texas vs Tennessee weather
The forecast calls for borderline perfect football weather (cool, dry, and not much wind), so don't expect any impact on the game in Knoxville.
Check out our college football weather page for up-to-date info on every matchup.
Texas vs Tennessee trend to know
The Over is 5-0 in Texas' last five games after rushing for more than 200 yards in its previous game. Find more college football betting trends for Texas vs. Tennessee.
How to watch Texas vs Tennessee
| Location | Neyland Stadium, Knoxville, Tenn. |
| Date | Saturday, Sept. 26, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 12:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ABC |
Texas vs Tennessee latest injuries
Check out our college football injuries page for updates on every team.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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