With ESPN College GameDay on campus and the president in attendance, Texas visits Rocky Top to play Tennessee at Neyland Stadium in Knoxville, Tenn., on Saturday at noon ET (ABC).
While the Longhorns are a 5.5-point favorite, my Texas vs. Tennessee parlays and college football picks focus on all the scoring both teams are poised to do in a shootout between Arch Manning and his uncle's alma mater. My Texas vs. Tennessee prediction dives deeper into the game lines, and who will win.
Best Texas vs Tennessee combos
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Texas vs Tennessee combo
Tennessee is 40-28 to the Over since Josh Heupel took over in 2021, and my Texas vs. Tennessee prediction projects a high-scoring game because of how well the Volunteers run the ball and how poorly they stop the run.
With DeSean Bishop behind a veteran offensive line, the Volunteers are fourth nationally in EPA per rush and 20th in offensive success rate (51.4%). Freshman QB Faizon Brandon has acclimated well, ranking top 30 in QBR (76.8), and his mobility will help the Vols move the ball on a Texas defense ranked 50th in success rate against the run (42%).
And with Arch Manning's slow start against Ohio State and struggles last week against UTSA (28.8 QBR), Tennessee should be in position to keep the first half close. However, the Longhorns' run game will help them pull away late against a Tennessee defense that's 91st in EPA per rush.
This is one of the must-watch matchups in my college football Top 25 predictions because of how many points I'm expecting to be scored in Knoxville.
Texas vs Tennessee player prop combo
Given Faizon Brandon's inexperience, Josh Heupel's offense will likely lean heavily on DeSean Bishop, especially with the offense ranking ninth in rushing success rate (55.4%). Bishop is Tennessee's best player, and he's found the end zone in every game this season thanks to his big-play ability - he's sixth nationally in runs of 15-plus yards (5).
But he's not the only player set to have a big day on the ground. Tennessee's run defense has been suspect this season (it allowed 135 rushing yards to a Georgia Tech team that couldn't run the ball against Colorado), and Arch Manning can take advantage.
Unlike his uncle Peyton, Manning's mobility is an X-factor. He's averaged 30.1 rushing yards per game since the start of last season and has 25 runs of 10-plus yards in those 16 games. And with running back Hollywood Smothers' status up in the air, there could be more on Manning's plate as a runner.
Smothers' potential absence will also put more on Cam Coleman, specifically in the red zone. Coleman's catch radius and body control make him a 50/50 ball savant (60.7% contested catch rate since last season). He's a mismatch and has scored four touchdowns in three games as a Longhorn.
- Combos: 3-11, -1.67 units
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