Our Texas vs. Tennessee computer picks cut through a loaded SEC matchup to find the best player prop value on Saturday.
The projections point to several edges on both sides, including a favorable passing-yard spot for Faizon Brandon and a pair of Hollywood Smothers props worth watching.
Below, we break down all eight computer picks for Texas vs Tennessee. For more on Saturday’s slate, check out our free college football picks.
Texas vs Tennessee computer picks
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
 Texas |
 Tennessee |
|---|---|
| Manning u248.5 passing yards 54% |
Brandon Over 199.5 passing yards 50% |
| Smothers o59.5 rushing yards 47% |
Bishop u83.5 rushing yards 70% |
| Mosley V o39.5 receiving yards 51% |
Jackson o30.5 receiving yards 52% |
| Smothers o12.5 receiving yards 20% |
Steley o48.5 receiving yards 47% |
Percentages courtesy of ProphetX, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Texas computer picks
Arch Manning Under 248.5 passing yards
Projection: 238.72 yards
Manning has thrown for 661 yards through three games, but 305 came against Texas State. He has stayed below this number in both tougher spots since, finishing with 195 yards against Ohio State and 164 against UTSA. Tennessee is allowing just 151 passing yards per game and has 13 sacks already. Our projection lands at 238.72, giving us enough room to stay Under 248.5.
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Hollywood Smothers Over 59.5 rushing yards
Projection: 67.16 yards
Smothers has been steady even while Texas continues to rotate its backs, rushing for 70, 74, and 54 yards through three games. That puts this 59.5 line right in his normal workload range, and our model pushes him higher at 67.16. Tennessee has allowed 138 rushing yards per game, so this is less about a soft matchup and more about Smothers getting enough volume to clear a modest number.
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Emmett Mosley V Over 39.5 receiving yards
Projection: 49.43 yards
Mosley has quietly become one of Manning's most reliable secondary targets, catching 11 passes for 130 yards through three games and averaging 43.3 yards per contest. He doesn't need a huge play to beat this number, either, with eight of his catches moving the chains. Our projection of 49.43 yards sits nearly 10 yards above the line, making Over 39.5 one of the cleaner model edges on Texas.
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Hollywood Smothers Over 12.5 receiving yards
Projection: 19.44 yards
Smothers has been involved as a receiver in every game, posting 28, 15, and 11 receiving yards while totaling 54 through three weeks. That matters with a line this low. One or two designed touches can put him in range quickly, especially if Tennessee's front makes life difficult between the tackles. Our projection calls for 19.44 receiving yards, nearly seven above the 12.5-yard number.
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Tennessee computer picks
Faizon Brandon Over 199.5 passing yards
Projection: 219.98 yards
Brandon has thrown for 552 yards with six touchdowns and no interceptions through his first three college starts, despite Tennessee rarely needing to chase points. This matchup should demand more from him. Texas has allowed only 178.7 passing yards per game, but Brandon's volume should rise if the Vols can't lean on their run game all afternoon. Our projection comes in at 219.98 yards, more than 20 above this line.
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DeSean Bishop Under 83.5 rushing yards
Projection: 76.50 yards
Bishop has 286 rushing yards through three games, but the game log matters. He exploded for 147 against Georgia Tech, then fell to 42 yards on nine carries against Kennesaw State as Tennessee continued spreading work around. Texas has allowed only 109 rushing yards per game and 3.4 yards per carry. With Brandon and Daune Morris also involved, our 76.50-yard projection points to the Under 83.5.
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Radarious Jackson Over 30.5 receiving yards
Projection: 36.34 yards
Jackson has only eight catches through three games, but he has turned them into 113 yards, averaging 14.1 yards per reception and 37.7 per game. He also showed his ceiling with 64 yards against Georgia Tech, Tennessee's closest thing to a competitive test so far. With the Vols likely needing more from the passing game against Texas, our 36.34-yard projection gives Over 30.5 a workable edge.
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Braylon Staley Over 48.5 receiving yards
Projection: 51.02 yards
This is the smallest model edge of the eight, so there is less margin for error. Staley has seven catches for 87 yards and two touchdowns through three games, with four grabs for 59 yards last week against Kennesaw State. That recent usage is encouraging heading into a game where Tennessee may have to throw more than usual. Our projection is 51.02 yards, just enough to lean Over 48.5.
🔥 Trade Braylon Staley receiving yards now Not intended for use in MA.
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