Each week, my college football power-ranking analysis breaks down the biggest adjustments from the previous week and highlights the best betting opportunities.
This week, we're keeping things simple by targeting the two biggest discrepancies between my power ratings and the market. Both still offer value in this week's college football picks.
Power Ratings Best Bets YTD: 12-9
Week 11 power rankings for the Top 10
| Rank | Team | Last week | This week | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Georgia | 92.44 | 94.44 | 2.0 |
| 2 | Notre Dame | 89.90 | 90.40 | 0.5 |
| 3 | Alabama | 87.38 |
88.38
|
1.0 |
| 4 | LSU | 89.16 | 88.16 | -1.0 |
| 5 | Texas | 86.57 | 87.07 | 0.5 |
| 6 | Indiana | 86.53 | 86.53 | 0.0 |
| 7 | Miami (FL) | 87.65 | 86.15 | -1.5 |
| 8 | Ohio State | 87.78 | 84.78 | -3.0 |
| 9 | Ole Miss | 85.77 | 83.27 | -2.5 |
| 10 | Oregon | 79.58 | 82.08 | 2.5 |
Brad Powers Week 11 top picks
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Brad Powers Week 11 power ratings
Florida +3.5 over Kentucky (Nov. 14, 6:15 p.m. ET)
My power ratings make Florida just a 0.5-point underdog, the biggest disparity of the week.
Both teams have a +0.5 yards-per-play margin on the season and have played similarly difficult schedules. Florida is slightly better in yards-per-game and scoring margins. That shouldn’t equate to a 3.5-point spread, even when factoring in home-field advantage.
I’m buying low on Florida after back-to-back double-digit losses to Georgia and Oklahoma. The last time the Gators were coming off consecutive losses this season, they upset Texas on the road as double-digit underdogs.
I also wonder what this spread would look like if Kentucky hadn’t converted those two 2-point attempts in overtime against South Carolina and LSU. If the Wildcats were 5-4 instead of 7-2, I’m guessing this line would be closer to a pick’em.
Virginia Tech -14.5 over Stanford (Nov. 14, 7:30 p.m. ET)
My power ratings make Virginia Tech a 17.5-point favorite, the second-biggest disparity of the week.
Stanford has one of the biggest home-road disparities of any team in the country. At home, the Cardinal are outscoring opponents by one point per game and outgaining them by 60 yards per contest. On the road, they're being outscored by 41 points per game and outgained by 286 yards.
The Cardinal are 0-4 ATS on the road, failing to cover by an average of 18.4 ppg. A lot of that has to do with the long flights, as this will be the fifth time this season they've traveled at least 2,000 miles.
In addition, we're expecting kickoff temperatures around 35 degrees. That would be the coldest of the college football season so far and far from ideal for players from California.
Biggest upgrades from last week
📈 Michigan State up 3.0 points
Michigan State got starting QB Alessio Milivojevic back from injury, and the Spartans proceeded to upset in-state rival Michigan 15-6 as 14.5-point underdogs.
The game was more lopsided than the final score suggests, as Michigan State settled for five field goals, while Michigan's lone touchdown drive came in the final minutes.
📈 Oregon up 2.5 points
Many, including myself, picked Oregon to win the National Championship this year. Obviously, the Ducks have been a huge disappointment with three losses.
However, Oregon played by far its best game of the season last week, upsetting Ohio State 41-28 as 8-point road underdogs.
Oregon still has some playoff hopes, and I currently have the Ducks at No. 10 in my power ratings.
📈 Tulsa up 2.5 points
Tulsa covered the spread by 47.5 points in last week's 60-10 win at Tulane. Enough said.
Biggest downgrades from last week
📉 Ohio State down 3.0 points
One of my favorite power ratings plays last week was Ohio State -7.5 against Oregon. It did not go well, as Oregon pulled off the 41-28 upset.
After taking an early 14-0 lead, Ohio State allowed 38 unanswered points, something that hadn't happened to the Buckeyes in any game since 1999.
Ohio State did hold a 413-395 edge in total yards, but 208 of those yards came in the fourth quarter after the game had already been decided.
📉 Michigan down 2.5 points
If you think the situation is bad in Columbus, it's far worse in Ann Arbor. Michigan lost outright to Michigan State 15-6 as 14.5-point home favorites on Saturday.
The Michigan offense managed just 117 yards before a garbage-time touchdown drive in the final minutes. Michigan will be an underdog in its final three games, and there's a growing possibility that head coach Kyle Whittingham could be "one and done."
📉 Tulane down 2.5 points
Tulane failed to cover the spread by 47.5 points in Saturday's 60-10 home loss to Tulsa, and there may be signs of the team waving the white flag.
The market certainly seems to think so. One of the first bets I made this week was Rice +1.5 vs. Tulane, and the Golden Hurricanes are now a 2.5-point underdog.
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