Player markets offer several intriguing angles in Saturday’s SEC clash.
My Texas vs. Tennessee prop picks focus on Faizon Brandon’s rushing upside, Hollywood Smothers’ uncertain workload, and a difficult matchup for Mike Matthews.
Check out all of my college football picks for Week 4 below.
Best Texas vs Tennessee props
Prop pick #1: Faizon Brandon Over 28.5 rushing yards
I'd be willing to trade up to 30.5 yards on Volunteers freshman QB Faizon Brandon's rushing prop because he's averaging 45.7 rushing yards per game and has gained at least 47 yards in two of his three games.
Texas' defense should provide Brandon with his toughest test yet, but that could actually help his rushing prop. If the Longhorns take away his first read or flush him from the pocket, Brandon has the athleticism to turn broken pass plays into rushing yards.
Brandon's mobility might take time for Texas' defense to adjust to, since the Longhorns haven't faced a quarterback this athletic. Tennessee's offensive line is one of the best units in the country, with four returning starters.
Prop pick #2: Hollywood Smothers Under 60.5 rushing yards
Give me Texas RB Hollywood Smothers Under 60.5 rushing yards, playable down to 57.5. Smothers isn't 100%, as he's dealing with a lower-body injury and is expected to be a game-time decision against Tennessee.
Even if Smothers suits up, I'm expecting Texas to manage his workload, especially with senior RB Raleek Brown available to split carries. Brown already has 31 rushing attempts this season compared to Smothers' 41.
Meanwhile, the Volunteers are allowing just 3.4 yards per carry against FBS opponents. A limited Smothers splitting work against a stout Tennessee run defense could struggle to get enough volume to clear this number.
Prop pick #3: Mike Matthews Under 58.5 receiving yards
There is a three-yard cushion on my Under 58.5 receiving yards prop for Volunteers junior WR Mike Matthews.
Matthews erupted for four catches, 132 receiving yards, and two touchdowns against FCS opponent Furman. Since then, however, he's finished with 16 and 41 receiving yards in his last two games. Matthews has gone Over 58.5 receiving yards in just six of his 16 career starts.
Per Pro Football Focus, Matthews has a failing receiving grade and is expected to line up across from Texas' best outside cornerback, Bo Mascoe. That could make Matthews more dependent on another explosive play to clear this number.
Lastly, QB Faizon Brandon is a freshman making his first start in a marquee game, and I'm skeptical about his ability to consistently push the ball downfield against Texas' defense.
- Prop picks: 10-11, -3.7 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
