Texas vs Tennessee Picks & Props
TEX vs TENN Picks
NCAAF PicksJosh Heupel has one of the most QB-friendly offenses in the country, and it has helped freshman Faizon Brandon hit the ground running. The five-star recruit is Top 30 in QBR (76.8) and has led the Vols to 42+ points in all three games. Texas is obviously Tennessee's strongest opponent yet, but a veteran O-line and star running back (DeSean Bishop) are why I like the Vols team total Over at 26.5 or better.
Since Josh Heupel arrived in Knoxville in 2021, Tennessee is 40-28 to the Over. The Volunteers once again have a high-powered offense that's 19th in available yards percentage (61.8%) and fourth in EPA per rush. It also once again has a flawed defense. Steve Sarkisian and Arch Manning have the Longhorns' offense ranked eighth by SP+ and can take advantage of the Vols ' defense. The Over is a play at 56.5 or better.
Although Texas managed to come back against Ohio State, the Longhorns followed it up with an ugly performance against UTSA (especially from Arch Manning). It's not easy to win in Knoxville, and Tennessee once again has one of the most explosive offenses in the country. The Vols are ranked No. 3 on offense by SP+, thanks to a strong offensive line and star running back DeSean Bishop. This should be a high-scoring game that Tennessee is equipped to hang around in.
Tennessee's offense ranks 20th nationally in success rate (51.4%) and has one of the best ground games in the country. That should help it keep things close early against a Texas team that struggled against UTSA. If Arch Manning gets off to a shaky start, as he did against Ohio State (and UTSA), the Vols will be in this game.
TEX vs TENN Consensus Picks
TEX vs TENN Props
| GAME & PLAYER PROPS | PROJECTIONS | ANALYSIS | BEST ODDS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
PASSING YARDS
A. Manning
(QB)
u252.5 Passing Yards
238.72 UNDER
PROJECTION
-13.8
DIFFERENCE
22.4%
EV
|
|||||||
|
PASSING YARDS
TENN
F. Brandon
(QB)
o199.5 Passing Yards
219.98 OVER
PROJECTION
+20.5
DIFFERENCE
22.19%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
TEX
R. Brown
(RB)
u54.5 Rushing Yards
51.25 UNDER
PROJECTION
-3.3
DIFFERENCE
17.63%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
TENN
D. Bishop
(RB)
o74.5 Rushing Yards
77.33 OVER
PROJECTION
+2.8
DIFFERENCE
-30%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
TEX
E. Mosley V
(WR)
o39.5 Receiving Yards
49.16 OVER
PROJECTION
+9.7
DIFFERENCE
26.15%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
TENN
R. Jackson
(WR)
o28.5 Receiving Yards
36.53 OVER
PROJECTION
+8.0
DIFFERENCE
24.6%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
TENN
B. Staley
(WR)
o45.5 Receiving Yards
51.85 OVER
PROJECTION
+6.4
DIFFERENCE
22.26%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
TEX
R. Wingo
(WR)
o50.5 Receiving Yards
54.75 OVER
PROJECTION
+4.2
DIFFERENCE
17.59%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
C. Coleman
(WR)
u61.5 Receiving Yards
58.88 UNDER
PROJECTION
-2.6
DIFFERENCE
17.12%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS
TENN
B. Staley
(WR)
u4.5 Receptions
3.80 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.7
DIFFERENCE
14.97%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS
TENN
R. Jackson
(WR)
o2.5 Receptions
2.58 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.1
DIFFERENCE
-13.91%
EV
|
|||||||
|
CARRIES
A. Manning
(QB)
u8.5 Carries
7.29 UNDER
PROJECTION
-1.2
DIFFERENCE
21.13%
EV
|
|||||||
|
COMPLETIONS
TENN
F. Brandon
(QB)
o17.5 Completions
17.79 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.3
DIFFERENCE
-5.69%
EV
|
|||||||
- Proj. Diff: Low to High
- Proj. Diff: High to Low
- Proj. Rating: Low to High
- Proj. Rating: High to Low
- +EV: Low to High
- +EV: High to Low
Recent Form Trends
Over is 5-0 in Longhorns last 5 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
Over is 8-0 in Volunteers last 8 games following a ATS win.
Under is 6-1 in Longhorns last 7 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.
Under is 5-1 in Longhorns last 6 games as a road underdog.
Over is 5-1 in Volunteers last 6 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
Longhorns are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
Under is 4-1 in Longhorns last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
Volunteers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.