Our Texas vs. Oklahoma expert picks are making the case for both sides ahead of today's Red River Rivalry game!
You won't want to miss our experts' Texas vs. Oklahoma predictions for Week 6. View our college football picks page for even more NCAAF plays for Saturday, Oct. 10.
Texas vs Oklahoma expert picks
For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, please see our odds calculator.
 Probability |
|
|---|---|
 Brad Powers: TEX -7.5 |
51% |
 Rob Paul: TEX -7.5 |
51% |
 Colby Marchio: OKLA +7.5 |
49% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Brad Powers’ expert pick: Texas -7.5
Price: 51% at Kalshi
Playable to -8.5. My Week 6 power ratings make Texas an 11.5-point favorite, the biggest disparity of the week!
Turnovers are mostly random, except when you have consistently poor quarterback play. Oklahoma quarterback John Mateer ranks just No. 68 in QBR and has eight turnover-worthy plays this season (12th most nationally). My college football best bets for Week 6 don’t expect him to suddenly play clean football against a Texas defense that ranks No. 16 in Havoc.
I don’t hold Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian in as high regard as most. However, I think he's far superior to Oklahoma head coach Brent Venables. This has played out on the field, with Texas winning 23-6, 34-3, and 49-0 in three of the four meetings between the two coaches.
Rob Paul’s expert pick: Texas -7.5
Price: 51% at Kalshi
Oklahoma has been wildly uncompetitive in the Red River Rivalry under Brent Venables. Venables is 1-3 straight up and ATS, losing those three games by an average of 32.3 points.
Texas' defense has shut down the Sooners in recent years, holding Oklahoma to zero touchdowns in three of its four Red River games under Venables. This year's Texas defense might be the best yet under Steve Sarkisian, while it's arguably the worst OU offense Venables has had.
The Longhorns' defense ranks third nationally in net adjusted EPA per play, 11th in success rate (36.5%), and 16th in havoc rate (20.6%). John Mateer (six turnover-worthy plays against Texas last year) has Oklahoma sitting just 112th in available yards percentage (37.4%), and he's Top 10 nationally in turnover-worthy play rate (6%).
Texas wins the Red River Rivalry for the fourth time in five years thanks to a dominant defensive performance.
Colby Marchio’s expert pick: Oklahoma +7.5
Price: 49% at Kalshi
My college football ATS picks for Week 6 think this is an all-time buy-low spot for Oklahoma.
The Sooners have looked brutal in losses to Michigan and Georgia, with the Bulldogs manhandling them by 28 points on the road in their last game. But I’m willing to throw those performances out the window.
The Sooners have had a bye week to regroup, and I believe the embarrassing loss to Georgia could be exactly what this team needed to prepare for its arch rival. Texas has endured a tough start to the season, but Oklahoma has the talent to make this a much closer game than recent results suggest.
Colby Marchio dives into more rivalry game analysis with his college football hate picks for Week 6.
How to watch Texas vs Oklahoma
| Location | Cotton Bowl, Dallas, TX |
| Date | Saturday, Oct. 10, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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