A rare non-conference game in Week 6 sees Arizona State host Hawaii at Mountain America Stadium, with both teams badly in need of a win.
With both offenses sputtering and rain in the forecast, my Hawaii vs. Arizona State prediction and college football picks predict a sloppy contest.
Tune into this game on FS1 at 10:30 pm ET on Saturday, Oct. 10.
Who will win Hawaii vs Arizona State: Hawaii +20.5
Play Hawaii down to +18.5 as Arizona State hasn't been trustworthy enough to lay three scores with.
The Sun Devils' most impressive performance is either a 28-point loss (Texas A&M) or an FCS blowout (Morgan State). The two most recent data points have seen them muster just 3.5 yards per play against Kansas and get dominated 55-19 by Baylor.
Kenny Dillingham's squad ranks outside the top 100 in EPA per play on both offense (112th) and defense (105th). The issues are plentiful, and this could take a while to fix, so covering a three-score spread is more than I can ask at current.
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TOP PICK
Hawaii vs Arizona State Over/Under pick: Under 50.5
Neither offense is trustworthy, and the forecast is calling for rain (63% chance throughout the contest), so here's banking on a low-scoring contest.
Hawaii bottles up big plays on defense (33rd in passing explosiveness allowed), which is crucial against a receiver like Reed Harris (19.2 yards per reception). Arizona State's poor offensive line (100th in line yards) hasn't been able to provide the requisite push for the ground game to become a reliable weapon.
Its defensive weakness is allowing too many big plays (130th in explosiveness). That's not a problem against Hawaii, which has the second-highest passing rate (64.1%) yet checks in at 123rd in explosiveness generated through the air.
COVERS INTEL: Hawaii's main issue on defense is stopping the run, where it ranks 128th in PFF's metric and 117th in EPA per rush allowed. That concern is mitigated against Arizona State, which is averaging 3.4 yards per carry against FBS opponents and ranks 125th in EPA per rush. Hawaii vs Arizona State combo
If this is a sloppy game in the rain, it'll benefit the underdog, so this is a correlated combo. Neither team is clicking on all cylinders, and both squads could come out tight given the importance of grabbing a win to establish much-needed momentum,
Hawaii vs Arizona State combo
- Hawaii +20.5
- Under 50.5
- First half Under 27.5
- Top picks: 8-6, +1.31 units
- Combos: 6-8, +19.97 units
Hawaii vs Arizona State odds
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Spread: Hawaii +20.5 | Arizona State -20.5
- Over/Under: Over 50.5 (52%) | Under 50.5 (53%)
- Moneyline: Hawaii 9% | Arizona State 91%
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Hawaii vs Arizona State weather
With a 63% chance of rain, both passing attacks could be negatively impacted.
Check out our college football weather page for up-to-date info on every matchup.
Hawaii vs Arizona State trend to know
The Under is 4-0 in Hawaii's last four games. Find more college football betting trends for Hawaii vs. Arizona State.
How to watch Hawaii vs Arizona State
| Location | Mountain America Stadium, Tempe, Ariz. |
| Date | Saturday, Oct. 10, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 9:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | FS1 |
Hawaii vs Arizona State latest injuries
Check out our college football injuries page for updates on every team.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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