The Houston Texans head into Sunday's clash with the Tennessee Titans as a 7.5-point road favorite, with kick-off from Nissan Stadium in Nashville scheduled for 1 p.m. ET.
Houston showed significant improvements last weekend, and my Texans vs Titans predictions fully expect the visitors to snatch a convincing road win in Week 5.
Read more in my NFL picks for Sunday, Oct. 11.
TOP Pick
Texans vs Titans prediction: Texans -7.5
Play up to 55%.
The Houston Texans opened as an early 6.5-point favorite in my early Texans vs. Titans predictions on Monday, but that number has moved to just over a touchdown. I’m still comfortable laying the points.
Tennessee is scoring just 13.8 points per game, second-worst in the NFL. At this number, Houston doesn’t need an offensive explosion. A low-20s output could be enough if the Titans remain this ineffective.
That’s encouraging after C.J. Stroud threw for 347 yards and two touchdowns while Houston generated 397 total yards against Dallas in Week 4. The Texans’ biggest issue was self-inflicted, with 13 penalties for 90 yards.
If they carry over last week’s offensive momentum, Houston has a clear path to winning convincingly.
COVERS INTEL: Houston plays zone coverage at an 84.3% rate, while Cam Ward is generating just -0.17 EPA per play against zone coverage this season.
Texans vs Titans combo
I'm combining the Texans to cover with a low-scoring affair and another solid outing from Nico Collins.
Although Tennessee struggles immensely to score points, they've done a respectable job limiting opponents. The Titans rank ninth in the NFL in fewest points allowed at 20.8 per game and sit 15th in total yards allowed.
That sets up the type of game script I'd want for Houston -7.5 and Under 37.5. The Texans finally found some offensive rhythm last week, but they don't need another 30-point performance here. A result in the 24-10 or 24-13 range would cash.
Collins has only played twice this season, but he's cleared 60.5 receiving yards in both appearances while averaging 13.8 yards per catch. Tennessee has also allowed 175+ receiving yards to opposing WRs in three of four games.
With Collins commanding roughly a 29% target share in his two appearances, he should see enough volume to clear this number again.
Texans vs Titans combo
- Texans -7.5
- Under 37.5
- Nico Collins Over 75.5 receiving yards
Texans vs Titans touchdown scorer: Nico Collins
Play up to 45%.
I'm sticking with Collins for my anytime touchdown pick. He's already found the end zone three times in two contests, including a pair of scores in the loss to Dallas.
Tennessee is allowing touchdowns on 66.7% of opponent red-zone trips, and Collins has commanded 43% of Houston's red-zone targets when healthy. He's also turned two of his three looks inside the 20 into touchdowns.
With Collins commanding such a significant share of Houston’s red-zone opportunities and Tennessee struggling to get stops inside the 20, I like Stroud’s top target to find paydirt again.
- Top picks: 1-4, -2.08 units
- Combos: 0-4, -4.00 units
Texans vs Titans odds
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Spread: Texans -7.5.5 | Titans +7.5
- Over/Under: Over 37.5 (53%) | Under 37.5 (48%)
- Moneyline: Texans 77% | Titans 24%
For the full slate of NFL matchups, check out our NFL odds board!
More Covers NFL trading tools
Texans vs Titans weather
Check out our NFL weather page for up-to-date info on every matchup.
Texans vs Titans trend to know
The Texans are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games in Week 5. Find more NFL betting trends for Texans vs. Titans.
or our BET99 promo code COVERS99 if you're in Canada.
How to watch Texans vs Titans
| Location | Nissan Stadium, Nashville, TN |
| Date | Sunday, Oct. 11, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 1 p.m. ET |
| TV | CBS |
Texans vs Titans latest injuries
Check out our NFL injuries page for updates on every team.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
