Texas vs Oklahoma Computer Picks: Our Best Week 6 Player Prop Projections

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Texas computer picks

Arch Manning Under 210.5 passing yards

Projection: 203.17 passing yards

Arch Manning has been held below 210 passing yards in three of Texas’ four games this season, including a modest 201-yard outing against Tennessee.

In fact, during last year's Red River Rivalry, Steve Sarkisian’s scheme relied heavily on high-percentage throws, resulting in Manning finishing with just 166 passing yards.

Brent Venables’ Sooners defense will aim to collapse the pocket and force mistakes. Expect Texas to leverage its ground game and short-passing attack, keeping Manning under this threshold.

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Emmett Mosley V Over 29.5 receiving yards

Projection: 44.44 receiving yards

Taking Over 29.5 receiving yards for Emmett Mosley V against Oklahoma boils down to his growing role in Texas' passing attack and his ability to generate explosive plays.

Since carving out a consistent role in the Longhorns' rotation, Mosley has proven he doesn’t need high target volume to clear this modest line. His intermediate route-running ability and open-field speed allow him to surpass 30 yards in just one or two catches.

With Brent Venables’ aggressive Sooners defense likely keying on Texas’ top perimeter options and bringing pressure, expect Arch Manning to rely on Mosley as a efficient safety valve to move the chains.

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Raleek Brown Over 49.5 rushing yards

Projection: 57.33 rushing yards

Backing Raleek Brown to clear Over 49.5 rushing yards against Oklahoma comes down to his growing focal role in Steve Sarkisian’s backfield and his game-breaking efficiency.

Since joining Texas, Brown has established himself as a primary driving force in the Longhorns' rushing attack. Averaging heavy volume when Texas controls the tempo, he doesn't rely solely on workload—his explosive initial burst makes him a threat to eclipse 50 yards on just a handful of carries.

Against a fast Sooners defense that will prioritize pressuring Arch Manning, Sarkisian should heavily rely on Brown to set the floor, control the game script, and exploit perimeter run defense.

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Ryan Wingo Over 3.5 receptions

Projection: 3.72 receptions

Backing Ryan Wingo to clear Over 3.5 receptions against Oklahoma hinges on his volume dominance and target security in the Texas offense.

As Arch Manning’s top perimeter option, Wingo commands steady volume, entering the Red River Shootout with 19 receptions on 26 targets across four games. His low drop rate and sharp route running make him Manning’s preferred answer against aggressive defensive fronts.

With Venables' Oklahoma defense likely loading the box to slow the run, expect Steve Sarkisian to design quick-out and screen concepts specifically for Wingo, providing a high floor to comfortably clear four catches.

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Oklahoma computer picks

John Mateer Over 19.5 rushing yards

Projection: 21.26 rushing yards

John Mateer to clear Over 19.5 rushing yards against Texas comes down to designated QB run volume and scrambles under heavy pass-rush pressure.

While sack yards penalize college QB rushing totals, Mateer’s dual-threat baseline easily clears this low 20-yard threshold. Oklahoma routinely leans on his legs in high-stakes games—evidenced by his double-digit carry volume against Michigan (13 attempts) and Georgia (15 attempts).

With Texas presenting an elite edge rush that will collapse the pocket, expect Mateer to escape for chunk yards on broken plays. Add in Sarkisian-style spy schemes opening up quarterback draws, and Mateer needs just two solid scrambles to comfortably hit the Over.

🔥 Trade mateer rushing yards now

Rocky Beers Over 39.5 receiving yards

Projection: 48.34 yards

Rocky Beers clearing Over 39.5 receiving yards against Texas relies on his heavy snaps as Oklahoma's top tight end and his role as a safety valve in the middle of the field.

Beers has emerged as a reliable security blanket for John Mateer, commanding a steady target share, particularly on third downs and soft zone coverage under the linebackers.

Against an aggressive Texas front that will prioritize generating edge pressure, expect Mateer to rely on quick-release throws to his tight end. Beers’ size and yards-after-catch capability mean he can comfortably push past 40 yards on just three or four grabs.

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Lloyd Avant Over 29.5 rushing yards

Projection: 39.30 rushing yards

While the Longhorns boasts a formidable interior defense, Lloyd Avant has consistently carved out high-leverage touches to maintain operational balance. A line of 30 yards is a low bar for a back averaging double-digit carries, requiring only a modest handful of touches to hit the mark. 

With Texas focusing heavily on slowing down John Mateer’s dual-threat playmaking and vertical shots, Avant should exploit open lanes on quick traps and delayed handoffs to comfortably cross this threshold.

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Lloyd Avant Over 8.5 receiving yards

Projection: 11.94 receiving yards

A line under nine yards is a remarkably low threshold—requiring just a single screen or swing pass out of the backfield to hit the Over.

With Texas featuring an aggressive front line that will relentlessly dial up edge pressure against John Mateer, expects the Sooners' game plan to rely heavily on quick-release relief valves.

Avant’s versatility in open space allows him to comfortably turn a short dump-off into double-digit yards, easily clearing this floor in the Red River Shootout.

🔥 Trade avant receiving yards now  Not intended for use in MA.
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