One of college football's biggest rivalries is set for Saturday at the Cotton Bowl in Dallas at 3:30 p.m. ET (ABC) as Texas and Oklahoma meet for the 122nd edition of the Red River Rivalry.
The Longhorns are 7.5-point favorites, and my Texas vs. Oklahoma parlays and college football picks project a slow start for both offenses and another win for Steve Sarkisian.
Best Texas vs Oklahoma parlays
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
Texas vs Oklahoma combo
Texas -7.5
Under 39.5
First half Under 19.5
The Red River Rivalry has been lopsided since Brent Venables took over at Oklahoma. The Sooners have lost three of the last four games (1-3 ATS), and those losses weren't even close. Oklahoma lost those three games by an average of 32.3 points and didn't even score a touchdown in any of them.
This year doesn't look like it will be much different, with the Sooners having arguably their worst offensive season since Venables arrived in Norman. Oklahoma ranks 112th in available yards percentage (37.4%) and last in the SEC in offensive success rate (39.2%).
Texas' defense is one of the best in the country, ranking No. 3 in net adjusted EPA per play and No. 11 in success rate (36.5%). The Sooners won't score enough to cover, but their defense should slow Texas down enough for the Under.
Oklahoma ranks 12th in the country in havoc rate (21.6%), and the Longhorns are averaging just 22 points per game in Power Four play.
Texas vs Oklahoma touchdown combo
Isaiah Sategna III anytime TD
Cam Coleman anytime TD
Hollywood Smothers anytime TD
As I broke down in the Texas vs. Oklahoma rivalry history, this year's Sooners team doesn't just have a lack of offensive stars; it has a lack of any consistent playmakers at all. But if any player is going to find the end zone for OU against Texas, it's Isaiah Sategna III.
Sategna leads the Sooners in all-purpose yards (519) and total TDs (3), and he's a threat to score on any touch after finishing third in the SEC in YAC last season (524). He's not the only future NFL wide receiver playing in The Red River Rivalry this year, though.
Cam Coleman is a potential top 10 pick, and his ball skills and catch radius make him a scary red zone threat. In his first season at Texas, Coleman leads the team in touchdowns (4), and he's third in the SEC in contested catches (4).
While Coleman was the biggest transfer addition for Texas' offense in the offseason, Hollywood Smothers has been the most productive new player. After missing the win over Tennessee, Smothers is healthy and ready for Red River.
In Texas' comeback against Ohio State, he scored twice and led the team in touches (23) and scrimmage yards (89).
Texas vs Oklahoma milestone combo
John Mateer Under 187.5 passing yards
Arch Manning Under 210.5 passing yards
Arch Manning Over 20.5 rushing yards
The biggest reason I'm all over the Longhorns in my Texas vs. Oklahoma prediction is John Mateer. He's been one of the worst QBs in the Power Four this season, ranking 70th nationally in QBR (56.9) and top 10 in turnover-worthy play rate (6%).
Last year against Texas, he accounted for six turnover-worthy plays and had a 34.6 QBR. This year could be worse with Texas' defense ranking 16th in EPA per pass and allowing 171.8 passing yards per game.
Arch Manning could struggle through the air, too, though. Oklahoma's pass defense is among the best in the country, allowing 122.5 passing yards per game and ranking No. 7 in pass success rate (33.3%).
Manning has failed to throw for Over 210.5 yards in both of Texas' Power Four wins this season, but his legs could be an X-factor. Last year, he ran for 34 yards against OU's defense, and he went for 24 against Ohio State this year. He's top 20 in the P4 in runs of 10-plus yards among QBs (6), so he may only need a few carries.
- Combos: 5-15, -0.84 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
