You've still got time to make your Texas vs. Oklahoma predictions ahead of today's must-see SEC showdown!
Our Texas vs. Oklahoma best bets for Saturday, Oct. 10 are backing the Longhorns to cover, while trusting Arch Manning and Ryan Wingo to cash player props in the Red River Rivalry.
Texas vs Oklahoma predictions
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Pick |  Probability |
|---|---|
 Texas moneyline |
75% |
| Texas -7.5 |
51% |
/ Under 39.5 |
52% |
| Avant Under 24.5 rushing yards |
55% |
| Manning Under 210.5 passing yards |
53% |
| Coleman anytime TD |
34% |
Percentages courtesy of ProphetX, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Who will win Texas vs Oklahoma?
Rob Paul has identified Texas as a solid moneyline play over Oklahoma in his Top 25 predictions for Week 6.
Our prediction: Texas to win — Yes (75%)
Oklahoma has been non-competitive in three of its four Red River Rivalry games under Brent Venables. Texas has even held the Sooners without a touchdown in three of the four games, and in its three wins, the Longhorns outscored OU by an average of 32.3 points.
This year shouldn't be any different, especially with how Oklahoma's offense has collapsed in Year 2 with John Mateer behind center. The Sooners rank 112th nationally in available yards percentage (37.4%) and last in the SEC in offensive success rate (39.2%).
So while Texas' offense has had its inconsistencies this season with Arch Manning, the Longhorns are light years better on that side of the ball than the Sooners. Texas is at least top 50 nationally in net adjusted EPA per play on offense and offensive success rate (46.5%).
Texas vs Oklahoma spread prediction
Our prediction: Texas -7.5 — Yes (51%)
Paul is laying the points with the Longhorns in his Texas vs. Oklahoma predictions.
Texas has beaten Oklahoma in three of Brent Venables' four Red River Rivalry games by an average of 32.3 points.
In those three wins, the Longhorns held the Sooners to fewer than seven points, thanks to dominant defensive performances. This year's Texas defense might be the best one yet, ranking No. 3 in net adjusted EPA per play, No. 11 in success rate (36.5%), and No. 16 in havoc rate (20.6%).
Oklahoma's offense could struggle to put up double digits against Texas. The Sooners are averaging 12.3 points per game in their last three games and rank last in the SEC in offensive success rate (39.2%), largely due to Mateer's poor play.
Texas vs Oklahoma total prediction
Market lean: Under 39.5 — Yes (52%)
Paul is picking the Under tonight due to Oklahoma's struggling offense.
Texas and Oklahoma are 6-2 to the Under combined and have hit it in three of the last four Red River Rivalry games. When the Sooners' offense doesn't score, the Under tends to hit at the Cotton Bowl, and this year's OU offense doesn't score (I like the Under down to 37.5).
However, it's not just Oklahoma's offense that has struggled. Texas is averaging 22 ppg against Power Four opponents, and Oklahoma's defense is still feisty. The Sooners are 12th in the country in havoc rate (21.6%), and Manning has just one TD pass vs. two interceptions in P4 games.
More Texas vs Oklahoma picks from Covers
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Texas vs Oklahoma player props
Rushing prop: Lloyd Avant Under 24.5 rushing yards — Yes (55%)
See why Geoff Clark predicts that stands in the way of a prosperous ground game for Lloyd Avant.
Texas has a strength-on-weakness edge over Oklahoma in the rushing department. The Longhorns rank 14th nationally in yards per rush allowed, while the Sooners sit 123rd in yards per rush on offense.
That mismatch isn’t new, either, as Oklahoma managed just 48 rushing yards on 30 carries against Texas last season.
The personnel situation makes things even tougher. Sooners running back Lloyd Avant is averaging just 3.8 yards per carry, while Oklahoma is dealing with injuries along the left side of its offensive line. Starting tackle Michael Fasusi is doubtful, while guard Eddy Pierre-Louis is questionable.
If Oklahoma can’t establish the run, Texas can force the Sooners into predictable passing situations, which will lead to fewer carries for Avant.
Passing prop: Arch Manning Under 210.5 passing yards — Yes (53%)
Clark is also backing Arch Manning to have a humble night on passing.
Manning’s passing Under is playable down to 207.5 yards because he’s topped 202 passing yards only once this season, and that came against Group of Six opponent Texas State.
This is also the Texas quarterback’s toughest passing matchup yet. Oklahoma ranks in the 95th percentile in passing-defense success rate, per GameOnPaper.com, and no opponent has thrown for more than 177 yards against the Sooners.
Oklahoma has consistently forced offenses to work underneath and earn yards rather than giving up easy explosive plays.
Check out Geoff Clark's full Texas vs. Oklahoma player props for his complete breakdown.
Texas vs Oklahoma anytime touchdown prop: Cam Coleman — Yes (34%)
JD Yonke sees Cam Coleman tapping into another level.
Prized offseason acquisition Cam Coleman has found the box four times already this season. His 6-foot-3 frame, vertical athleticism, and enormous hands make him a prototype red zone threat.
That's a godsend for a program that has struggled in short yardage and goal line situations for multiple seasons. Expect Arch Manning to continue looking Coleman's way deep into opposing teams' territory.
Coleman notched two receiving touchdowns against Texas State in the opener, and then again against UTSA. He's a threat to find paydirt against Oklahoma, especially since Texas' line will struggle to pave lanes for the rushing attack, ranking 113th in line yards, against Oklahoma's front (seventh in rushing success rate allowed).
For more touchdown angles, check out our full Texas vs. Oklahoma touchdown picks.
Texas vs Oklahoma live markets explained
Event contracts can be bought and sold as the Texas vs. Oklahoma game unfolds, meaning traders aren't necessarily locked into their original pregame position.
The probabilities will move throughout the game as the score, time remaining, possession, and game state change.
How do Texas vs Oklahoma prediction markets work?
ProphetX is a federally regulated U.S. exchange where users trade directly on the outcome of real-world future events. Instead of traditional bets, users trade event contracts based on simple Yes/No questions such as "Will Texas beat Oklahoma?"
Contract prices reflect the market's estimated probability of an outcome. A contract trading at 23%, for example, indicates that the market is assigning that outcome roughly a 23% chance of occurring. If the prediction is correct, the contract settles at $1; if it is incorrect, it settles at $0.
How do prediction markets differ from sportsbooks?
At a traditional sportsbook, bettors wager against prices established by the bookmaker. ProphetX instead operates as an exchange, with users trading event contracts against other market participants.
Another major difference is the ability to exit a position before an event is finished. If the probability of your Texas vs. Oklahoma position increases during the game, you can sell the contract rather than waiting for the final result.
Why trade Texas vs Oklahoma at ProphetX?
ProphetX offers several features that distinguish prediction markets from traditional football betting:
- Live flexibility: Contracts can be bought and sold as market probabilities change throughout the game.
- Probability-based pricing: Markets display the estimated likelihood of an outcome rather than traditional American odds.
- Transparency: Prices are driven by trading activity between market participants.
- Federal regulation: ProphetX operates as a CFTC-regulated exchange.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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