My Texas vs. Oklahoma prop picks attack three Unders in a Red River Rivalry showdown primed for a defensive battle.
Although the Longhorns are favored by more than a touchdown for Saturday’s 3:30 p.m. ET kickoff at the Cotton Bowl, points could come at a premium in our Texas vs. Oklahoma predictions.
Find out more in my latest college football picks for Oct. 10.
Best Texas vs Oklahoma props
Prop pick #1: Arch Manning Under 210.5 passing yards
Arch Manning’s passing Under is playable down to 207.5 yards because he’s topped 202 passing yards only once this season, and that came against Group of Six opponent Texas State.
This is also the Texas quarterback’s toughest passing matchup yet. Oklahoma ranks in the 95th percentile in passing-defense success rate, per GameOnPaper.com, and no opponent has thrown for more than 177 yards against the Sooners.
Oklahoma has consistently forced offenses to work underneath and earn yards rather than giving up easy explosive plays.
Manning threw for only 166 yards against the Sooners last year despite completing 77.8% of his passes. Virtually all of his passing numbers also declined on the road last season.
Prop pick #2: Lloyd Avant Under 24.5 rushing yards
Texas has a strength-on-weakness edge over Oklahoma in the rushing department. The Longhorns rank 14th nationally in yards per rush allowed, while the Sooners sit 123rd in yards per rush on offense.
That mismatch isn’t new, either, as Oklahoma managed just 48 rushing yards on 30 carries against Texas last season.
The personnel situation makes things even tougher. Sooners running back Lloyd Avant is averaging just 3.8 yards per carry, while Oklahoma is dealing with injuries along the left side of its offensive line. Starting tackle Michael Fasusi is doubtful, while guard Eddy Pierre-Louis is questionable.
If Oklahoma can’t establish the run, Texas can force the Sooners into predictable passing situations, which will lead to fewer carries for Avant.
Prop pick #3: Elijah Thomas Under 16.5 receiving yards
According to Pro Football Focus, Sooners sophomore wideout Elijah Thomas ranks 964th among 996 qualified receivers, and I'd play this Under down to 15.5.
Thomas was a four-star recruit coming out of high school, but he has mostly earned offensive opportunities because of his special-teams prowess. In fact, Thomas has more career tackles (10) than catches (five).
The matchup doesn't help, either. Texas ranks in the 96th percentile nationally in passing yards allowed per dropback, according to GameOnPaper. Even if Thomas sees a few extra routes, asking him to clear this number against an elite secondary is a tall order.
- Prop picks: 10-13-1, -5.68 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
