Oklahoma looks to end its Red River Rivalry losing streak today at the Cotton Bowl in Dallas at 3:30 p.m. ET (ABC) against Texas. However, the Longhorns have a 74% win probability as the 7.5-point favorite on the road.
My Texas vs. Oklahoma prediction and Week 6 college football picks expect Steve Sarkisian's defense to shut down the Sooners yet again today, Saturday, Oct. 10. For the full slate, see our Week 6 Top 25 predictions and best bets.
TOP PICK
Who will win Texas vs Oklahoma today? Pick: Texas -7.5
Recent Texas vs. Oklahoma rivalry history has been unkind to the Sooners, and I would take the Longhorns to cover as many as 9.5 points this year, as I did in my early Texas vs. Oklahoma prediction.
Texas has beaten Oklahoma in three of Brent Venables' four Red River Rivalry games by an average of 32.3 points.
In those three wins, the Longhorns held the Sooners to fewer than seven points, thanks to dominant defensive performances. This year's Texas defense might be the best one yet, ranking No. 3 in net adjusted EPA per play, No. 11 in success rate (36.5%), and No. 16 in havoc rate (20.6%).
Oklahoma's offense could struggle to put up double digits against Texas. The Sooners are averaging 12.3 points per game in their last three games and rank last in the SEC in offensive success rate (39.2%), largely due to John Mateer's poor play.
Last year against Texas, Mateer was as bad as it gets (three interceptions, six turnover-worthy plays, 34.6 QBR).
COVERS INTEL: The Sooners haven't scored a touchdown in three of their four Red River Rivalry games under Venables, and this year's offense is arguably the worst he's had at Oklahoma. It ranks 112th in available yards percentage (37.4%), and Mateer ranks in the Top 10 in turnover-worthy play rate (6%).
Texas vs Oklahoma Over/Under pick: Under 39.5
Texas and Oklahoma are 6-2 to the Under combined and have hit it in three of the last four Red River Rivalry games. When the Sooners' offense doesn't score, the Under tends to hit at the Cotton Bowl, and this year's OU offense doesn't score (I like the Under down to 37.5).
Oklahoma put up just 258 yards on Texas last year, and the Longhorns' defense is better this time around. It's ranked No. 5 by SP+ and has allowed more than 17 points once. That was to Ohio State and Heisman Trophy odds favorite Jeremiah Smith, and it allowed just three points in the second half to the Buckeyes.
However, it's not just Oklahoma's offense that has struggled. Texas is averaging 22 ppg against Power Four opponents, and Oklahoma's defense is still feisty. The Sooners are 12th in the country in havoc rate (21.6%), and Arch Manning has just one TD pass vs. two interceptions in P4 games.
Texas vs Oklahoma combo
The Red River Rivalry has been uncompetitive in three of Venables' four seasons in Norman. Oklahoma has a massive offensive problem, and there's no reason to believe this year will be any different. See more in our favorite college football combos for Week 6.
Mateer ranks 69th nationally in QBR (56.7) and has posted a 58.9 QBR or worse in three straight matchups, leading the Sooners to fewer than 300 total yards in each.
OU's offense likely won't have its left tackle and is down one of its top receivers (Trell Harris) against a Texas defense that's allowing just 271 yards per game. However, the Sooners should slow Texas' offense down too.
I have Texas winning Red River 24-13.
Texas vs Oklahoma combo
- Texas -7.5
- Under 39.5
- First half total Under 19.5
Texas vs Oklahoma prop: Oklahoma team total Under 15.5
Oklahoma failed to score more than 13 points against Michigan, New Mexico, and Georgia. Those three defenses are ranked top 25 by SP+, as is Texas', which is allowing just 13.2 ppg. The Under on the Sooners' team total is worth playing at 14.5 or better.
OU is averaging 3.0 ppg in its three Red River Rivalry losses under Venables, and I don't see the Sooners scoring more than 14 this year. The Longhorns' pass rush is one of the best in college football, with Colin Simmons ranking top 10 in the Power Four in pressures (18) and second nationally in sacks (7.5).
Blocking him could be a massive problem for an Oklahoma offense expected to be without left tackle Michael Fasusi.
Texas vs Oklahoma market trends
Here is how trusted traders at Kalshi are dealing on today's matchup. Use the widget below to help inform yout Texas vs. Oklahoma prediction.
More Week 6 college football picks
- Today's top college football picks: Saturday, Oct. 10
- Brad Powers' Week 6 power rankings: best bets, upgrades and downgrades
- College football Week 6 moneyline picks
- College football underdog picks and upset predictions: Week 6
- College football AI predictions Week 6: ATS and Over/Under picks for every game
- College football Week 6 picks against the spread
- Our favorite college football combos for Week 6
- College football Top 25 predictions and best bets: Week 6
- Our favorite Group of 6 predictions: Week 6
- College football player props: Week 6
- Top picks: 12-8, +2.86 units
- Combos: 5-15, -0.84 units
Texas vs Oklahoma odds today
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Spread: Texas -7.5 | Oklahoma +7.5
- Over/Under: Over 39.5 (49%) | Under 39.5 (51%)
- Moneyline: Texas 74% | Oklahoma 26%
For the full slate of Week 6 college football matchups, check out our Week 6 college football odds board!
More Covers college football betting tools
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Texas vs Oklahoma weather
Weather at the Cotton Bowl in Dallas is expected to have no impact on today's Red River Rivalry.
Check out our college football weather page for up-to-date info on every matchup.
Texas vs Oklahoma trend to know
The Under is 11-1 in Oklahoma's last 12 games following a bye week. Find more college football betting trends for Texas vs. Oklahoma.
How to watch Texas vs Oklahoma
| Location | Cotton Bowl, Dallas, Texas |
| Date | Saturday, Oct. 10, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ABC |
Texas vs Oklahoma latest injuries
Check out our college football injuries page for updates on every team.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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