After barely beating Old Dominion in its season opener, South Carolina heads to Kroger Field to take on Kentucky in Week 2 action this afternoon.
The Wildcats are a 9-point favorite against the Gamecocks, and I highlight why Mark Stoops’ team is poised for a big outing in my South Carolina vs. Kentucky predictions and college football picks for Saturday, September 7.
South Carolina vs Kentucky prediction
My best bet
Kentucky -9 (-110 at BetMGM)
My analysis
The Kentucky Wildcats didn’t even need the second half to blowout Southern Miss 31-0 in its season opener. The game was called with over nine minutes left in the third quarter due to weather delays.
While the Golden Eagles aren’t nearly the same caliber as an SEC opponent, the South Carolina Gamecocks needed every minute of their game against Old Dominion to win 23-19.
It’s pretty clear South Carolina has a QB problem with Spencer Rattler off to the NFL. New starter LaNorris Sellers struggled mightily in his first career start, going 10-for-23 for 114 yards against a defense that was 97th in SP+ last season.
So, how is he going to move the ball consistently against a Kentucky defense that has several future NFL players?
He’s not going to be able to, and while Raheim “Rocket” Sanders is a talented running back, he struggled to create much against a Monarchs defense that was keyed in on stopping him last week. Expect Kentucky defensive coordinator Brad White to take the same approach.
The Wildcats’ defense was 24th in EPA per rush last season and has one of the best linebackers in the country running the show in Jamon Dumas-Johnson, a Georgia transfer.
With the defense set to bully South Carolina, Kentucky’s offense can rely on another former Bulldog to put up enough points to cover.
With Devin Leary gone, Stoops added former blue-chip recruit Brock Vandagriff, who backed up Carson Beck at Georgia last year. Vandagriff’s dual-threat ability was on full display in the season opener, and he should create issues for a defense that was 76th in EPA per pass and 69th in EPA per rush last season.
And he’s not the only playmaker new OC Bush Hamdan can lean on, with a trio of talented receivers in Dane Key, Barion Brown, and Ja’Mori Maclin.
Despite playing a middling Group of 5 team in Week 1, Kentucky once again looks like it can overachieve in the SEC. It’s 22nd in SP+ following the opener and should cruise to a win against the Gamecocks.
South Carolina vs Kentucky same-game parlay (SGP)
Kentucky -8.5
Under 42.5
Brock Vandagriff 175+ passing yards
This game isn’t for you if you want to see constant explosive plays and offensive fireworks.
While Kentucky should win handily, it won’t be by enough for the Over to hit. South Carolina has a solid enough defense, and if Week 1 is any indication, Shane Beamer’s team has a budding superstar in Dylan Stewart.
South Carolina is 35th in SP+ on defense heading into the game. And with their offense being 78th, they’re the perfect team to bet Unders on.
That’s especially true with how strong Kentucky’s defense looks this season as it’s 27th in SP+. With a cornerback duo of Maxwell Hairston and JQ Hardaway and a front seven led by Dumas-Johnson and Deone Walker, it’s going to be a long afternoon for Sellers.
While Sellers may struggle, I expect Vandagriff to do enough to top 175 passing yards. While he only threw for 169 yards last week, that was because Kentucky didn’t play most of the second half due to weather.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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South Carolina vs Kentucky odds
South Carolina vs Kentucky live odds
South Carolina vs Kentucky opening odds
- Spread: South Carolina +10 (-110) | Kentucky -10 (-110)
- Moneyline: South Carolina +290 | Kentucky -375
- Over/Under: Over 45.5 (-110) | Under 45.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
South Carolina vs Kentucky spread and Over/Under analysis
- Coming off its win over Southern Miss, Kentucky opened between a 7.5 and 9.5-point favorite with most books coming up to -10 to -10.5.
- Dating back to last season, the Wildcats are 8-6 ATS while the Gamecocks are 6-7.
- The Over/Under opened as high as 46.5 but has dropped down to between 42.5 and 43.
- Kentucky is 9-5 betting the Over since last season, but South Carolina is just 5-8.
South Carolina vs Kentucky betting trend to know
South Carolina has hit the game total Under in eight of its last 13 games (+2.50 Units / 17% ROI). Find more college football betting trends for South Carolina vs. Kentucky.
South Carolina vs Kentucky game info
| Location: | Kroger Field, Lexington, KY |
| Date: | Saturday, 9-7-2024 |
| Kickoff: | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ABC |
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