Week 3 is here, and so are this week’s college football underdog picks.
I found three underdogs with some bite on Saturday’s slate, and I think all three have a legitimate chance to pull off the upset. One is practically a coin flip according to the market, while the other two are being given less than a 45% chance to win.
Let’s go hunting for some upsets.
Before you dive in, check out all of our college football picks for Week 3 action.
CFB Week 3 underdog picks
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SMU (vs. Louisville)
This is not a potential fade-the-public spot, as a lot of people will likely side with Louisville this week after the Cardinals looked very solid against Ole Miss in Week 1. However, I keep thinking about how much of a blowout SMU could have had against Florida State if the Mustangs did not turn the ball over four times.
In their 27-24 win over Florida State, the Mustangs racked up nearly 600 total yards of offense, outgaining the Seminoles by 261 yards. Their defense wowed me for a season opener. They were fast, got after the football effectively, and did not allow the Seminoles to breathe. Florida State was 4-for-19 on third and fourth down combined (2/15 on third down | 2/4 on fourth down).
The Mustangs now have a few weeks under their belt, which should give them enough time to adjust their early mistakes. I like them a lot in this spot.
NC State (vs. Vanderbilt)
NC State is a team a lot of people thought coming into the season could finally be the year they boom, mainly me. Then, in the season opener, they lost to Virginia on the road 34-8. The Wolf Pack then followed that up by taking down the Richmond Spiders 73-0 in Week 2.
Now, they have to go into Nashville as they take on a Vanderbilt team that really has not played a soul, nor do they have a dominating win through their first two games. The Commodores have a 28-9 win over Austin Peay and a 35-26 win over Delaware.
Last week against the Fightin' Blue Hens, the Commodores were nearly outgained by Delaware, finishing with just one more total yard of offense than their opponent. Vanderbilt did do a good job of getting after the quarterback, sacking Delaware's quarterback six times.
Outside of that, the Commodores were not that impressive, winning by nine as a 20.5-point favorite, and that was their biggest test early on this season. With the Wolf Pack still healing from their beating in Week 0, they should be ready to take down the Commodores on the road.
Mississippi State (vs. South Carolina)
South Carolina has been cruising down Easy Street through their first two games. Playing Kent State and Towson, two juggernauts, if you squint hard enough.
Meanwhile, Mississippi State has at least had to go into Minneapolis and beat the Golden Gophers away from home. The Bulldogs gave it to the Golden Gophers, too, outgaining them by nearly 200 yards and converting 60% of their third-down attempts while limiting Minnesota to 4.6 yards per play compared to their 7.0.
Bulldogs star quarterback Kamario Taylor threw for over 220 yards while completing 72% of his passes and throwing three touchdowns.
This will be the Gamecocks' first true test. They may have home-field advantage, but the Bulldogs have already shown they are more than comfortable playing on the road.
Week 3 underdog combo
SMU
NC State
Mississippi State
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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