After going 8-2 with my moneyline picks last week, I'm looking to keep the momentum rolling with several heavyweight matchups and a few opportunities to go against the market in Week 3.
My college football moneyline picks include three outright underdogs, including Ole Miss defending its home field against LSU in one of Saturday's biggest games.
Here are my college football picks to win outright in Week 3.
College football moneyline picks for Week 3
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| Matchup |  Probability |
|---|---|
 Houston vs  Texas Tech |
73% |
 North Carolina vs  Clemson |
40% |
 SMU vs  Louisville |
48% |
 USC vs  Rutgers |
93% |
 Mississippi State vs  South Carolina |
61% |
 Florida vs  Auburn |
55% |
 West Virginia vs  Virginia |
77% |
 Colorado vs  Northwestern |
62% |
 LSU vs  Ole Miss |
42% |
 Fresno State vs  San Jose State |
71% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Expert Week 3 CFB moneyline picks
Houston vs. Texas Tech: Texas Tech (73%)
Houston is good enough to keep this close, but winning in Lubbock is a different challenge. Texas Tech has won seven straight meetings in this series, while its defensive front presents the toughest test Houston has faced this season. Conner Weigman gives the Cougars a chance through the air, especially after Oregon State threw for 413 yards against Tech, but the Red Raiders have the stronger overall roster and home-field advantage. I'll back Texas Tech to survive.
North Carolina vs. Clemson: North Carolina (40%)
Clemson losing Christopher Vizzina changes this matchup considerably. Freshman Tait Reynolds is expected to start after completing 16 of 27 passes for 178 yards against Georgia Southern, while UNC counters with the more experienced Billy Edwards Jr., who has completed 64.6% of his passes without an interception. The Tar Heels have also surrendered just 13 points through two games. In a matchup with a low total and little margin for error, I'll take UNC outright.
SMU vs. Louisville: SMU (48%)
SMU's win at Florida State told me plenty. The Mustangs piled up 585 yards, converted eight of 14 third downs, and still won despite turning the ball over four times. Kevin Jennings has completed nearly 77% of his passes while throwing eight touchdowns through two games, giving SMU the quarterback I trust more in a close matchup. Louisville has plenty of explosive ability, but its defense surrendered 41 points to Ole Miss. I'll take SMU outright on the road.
USC vs. Rutgers: USC (93%)
This isn't where I'm looking to get cute. USC has scored at least 39 points in all three games, and Jayden Maiava has been remarkably efficient running an offense loaded with playmakers. Rutgers, meanwhile, has already shuffled quarterbacks and doesn't have the offensive consistency I want when trying to pull a major upset. The Trojans' defense remains vulnerable enough to make the spread less attractive, but that's irrelevant here. USC should have far too much firepower to lose outright.
Mississippi State vs. South Carolina: South Carolina (61%)
Mississippi State's 38-13 win at Minnesota has my attention after the Bulldogs rushed for 252 yards while holding the Gophers to just 13. Kamario Taylor's mobility makes this a dangerous matchup, but Williams-Brice represents Taylor's first SEC road environment as a starter, and LaNorris Sellers gives the Gamecocks the more proven quarterback. I'll back South Carolina to survive at home.
Florida vs. Auburn: Florida (55%)
Florida hasn't faced much resistance yet, but the early returns from Aaron Philo have been excellent. He's completed better than 76% of his passes through two games, while Jadan Baugh has already rushed for 296 yards, giving the Gators balance Auburn must account for. The Tigers barely escaped Baylor before crushing Southern Miss, and Byrum Brown threw three interceptions in the opener. Jordan-Hare is a major step up for Philo, but I trust Florida's offensive floor enough to win.
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West Virginia vs. Virginia: Virginia (77%)
West Virginia's rushing attack is the reason I don't want to lay double digits, but Virginia is still the team I expect to win in Charlotte. Beau Pribula has completed 21 of 25 passes with five touchdowns through two games while adding another dimension with his legs, and the Cavaliers have multiple backs capable of carrying the offense. Michael Hawkins Jr. can keep West Virginia competitive, but Virginia has shown more balance on both sides of the ball.
Colorado vs. Northwestern: Northwestern (62%)
Colorado's ceiling with Julian Lewis is intriguing, but I'm not ready to trust the freshman away from home after he completed just 14 of 27 passes for 124 yards against Georgia Tech. Northwestern enters off a bye after producing 497 yards in its opener, including 224 on the ground, while Aidan Chiles threw for 273 yards without an interception. The spread has climbed beyond where I'd want to lay it, but Northwestern is still my pick to win outright at home.
LSU vs. Ole Miss: Ole Miss (42%)
LSU's defense is the best unit in this game, but Ole Miss has enough advantages elsewhere for me to call the upset. Trinidad Chambliss has completed 71% of his passes for 561 yards and five touchdowns through two games, and he threw for 314 yards in last year's 24-19 win over LSU. In a game where I expect points to be difficult to come by, I trust Chambliss and the Rebels to make fewer mistakes and find enough offense to win at home.
Fresno State vs. San Jose State: Fresno State (71%)
San Jose State has scored at least 26 points in all three games, so I don't expect Fresno State to cruise. The difference is how dramatically Jayden Mandal improved last week, completing 23 of 26 passes for 316 yards and two touchdowns in a 49-3 win over Sacramento State. San Jose State has surrendered at least 20 points in every game, and Fresno has won the last two meetings by a combined 50 points. I'll back the Bulldogs again.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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