Michigan vs Penn State Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Expect Defensive Clash in Battle of Big Ten Beasts

The game of the week in college football takes place in Happy Valley where the No. 10-ranked Penn State Nittany Lions host the No. 3-ranked and undefeated Michigan Wolverines.

Now, Michigan has done its job by rolling through its soft schedule to this point. The Wolverines have been favored by at least 19 points in every game this season but get their first real test in the Nittany Lions this week.

Penn State’s defense is legit and if anyone has any shot of slowing down J.J. McCarthy and the Michigan offense, it’s them. Plus, the Nittany Lions still have an outside shot in the Big Ten title odds — but a win this week is a must.

You don't need to steal signs to know this will be an epic Big Ten battle. I break down the college football odds and bring you my best free college football picks for Michigan vs. Penn State.

Michigan vs Penn State best odds

Michigan vs Penn State picks and predictions

Potential sign-stealing scandal aside, we finally get to see how good the Michigan Wolverines really are.

The Wolverines have rolled through a schedule that looks like it could compete with a pillow in a softness contest, but unlike some other top teams in the nation, Michigan is leaving very little doubt in these games and taking care of business. 

The Wolverines are able to do that because, frankly, they are a very good team. Quarterback J.J. McCarthy is deserving of the Heisman Trophy odds hype, running back Blake Corum is running with authority and scoring in bunches, and both are playing behind one of the best offensive lines in the country.

They rank fifth in the nation in scoring at 40.7 points per contest and rank fifth in offensive success rate.

That said, they haven’t seen anything like this Penn State defense. The Nittany Lions can do it all: they can pressure the quarterback, stuff the run, and cover downfield. PSU leads the country in opponent yards per play, is second in sack rate, and sixth in defensive success rate. 

The Penn State run defense might be the most impressive element. The Nittany Lions allow just 1.9 yards per carry. If they can limit Corum in this matchup and force McCarthy to make some tough throws under pressure, it could result in some mistakes.

However, Penn State doesn’t have the only elite defense in this matchup. The Wolverines rank sixth in opponent yards per play and are first in the nation in defensive success rate. While you can make the case that Michigan hasn’t played a great offense, Drew Allar & Co. haven’t exactly proven themselves either.

Pundits have been critical of Allar’s inability at times to push the ball down the field through the air, and he struggled in his lone start against a good defense, with Ohio State earning a 20-12 win a few weeks back. Allar went 18-for-42 for 191 yards and one score in that game and this Michigan defense is certainly comparable.

Despite that, the Nittany Lions may have won that game against Ohio State if not for Marvin Harrison Jr. being a generational talent. The Wolverines have some weapons on offense, but nothing of Harrison's caliber.

This game has all the feelings of a throw-'em-down, beat-'em-up, slobber knocker. And with these two defenses, points will be tough to come by. Bet the Under in this massive Big Ten affair.

My best bet: Under 46 (-110 at DraftKings)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

Michigan vs Penn State same-game parlay

Under 46.5

J.J. McCarthy Over 240.5 passing yards

Colston Loveland anytime TD

30% boost available

+1,779 +2,312 at FanDuel

Let’s buy a hook on the Under for our same-game parlay, but just because I like this game to be low-scoring doesn’t mean there won't be production.

My gut says J.J. McCarthy is the difference-maker in this game. While he doesn’t have a weapon like Harrison, he’s a better quarterback than Kyle McCord. He's averaging 237.1 passing yards per game this season but has barely played a snap in the fourth quarter.

I expect the Nittany Lions to focus on Blake Corum and make McCarthy beat them with his arm. I’m betting his offensive line gives him just enough time to make some throws, allowing him to get Over the line on his passing yards prop. 

I also think McCarthy tosses at least one touchdown pass in this game and I’m looking at a not-so-obvious candidate that is Colston Loveland.

The big tight end has become a big red zone target for McCarthy over the last month. They have connected for touchdowns in three of the last four games and four times overall in that span.

This is one of my spicier SGPs. If this one hits, we'll cash a massive +1,779 ticket.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Michigan vs Penn State spread and Over/Under analysis

The spread for this all-important Big Ten showdown between Michigan and Penn State opened with the Wolverines favored by 5.5 points.

However, with the expectation that this is a defensive battle and the fact this game is being played in State College, it’s the Nittany Lions seeing the early support, with the line moving to 4.5 as of Tuesday evening.

Generally, I tend to agree with that line of thinking. The home team with a great defense in what should be a low-scoring game feels like the right side.

However, I’m staying away from the spread here because of how good Michigan has been. Yes, the schedule has been soft, but it’s not like the Wolverines have played in close games. They’ve destroyed everyone.

Mix in a young quarterback who's been inconsistent and the fact that James Franklin’s teams just never seem to get that big win and that’s enough to lay some doubt in my mind. Michigan could easily cover this number.

The total, on the other hand, hit the board at 43.5 and has seen mostly Over money to this point, with the number getting as high as 46. That number is now high enough to feel confident in backing the Under, which I broke down above.

Michigan vs Penn State betting trend to know

Penn State has cashed the first-half Under in eight of their last 12 games for +4.50 units. Find more college football betting trends for Michigan vs Penn State.

Michigan vs Penn State game info

Michigan vs Penn State latest injuries

Michigan vs Penn State weather

Monitor gametime conditions with our College football weather info.

Stay updated with the latest picks, odds, and news! Tap the to add us to your favorites on Google News to never miss a story.

Pages related to this topic