South Bend will be the epicenter of the college football universe on Saturday night when the top-ranked Miami Hurricanes roll into town to face the Notre Dame Fighting Irish.
We won't get to see Malachi Toney in action, but our Miami vs. Notre Dame prop picks for this heavyweight bout focus on the showdown between elite quarterbacks Darian Mensah and CJ Carr.
For more college football picks and analysis, check out Rob Paul's Miami vs. Notre Dame predictions ahead of kickoff at 7:30 p.m. ET on Saturday, Nov. 7.
Best Miami vs Notre Dame props
Prop pick #1: CJ Carr Over 4.5 rush attempts
I gave out this same prop when Notre Dame faced BYU, and CJ Carr came through. I'm backing it again, up to 55%, for many of the same reasons.
It starts with the game plan. This Miami defense ranks second in EPA per rush but 110th in EPA per pass. That means we'll likely see fewer handoffs and more dropback opportunities.
That also puts Carr up against a Hurricanes front that ranks 15th in pass-rush grade, per PFF, and 29th nationally in sack rate.
Carr has shown this season that he's not afraid to scramble. Factor in sacks counting as rush attempts, and he should clear this total for the fifth time in seven contests.
Prop pick #2: Micah Gilbert Over 31.5 receiving yards
Jordan Faison leads all Notre Dame receivers with 56 targets, while Jaden Greathouse and Micah Gilbert are tied with 33 targets apiece.
But Gilbert is the player being undervalued here, and I'm backing him up to 54%.
Miami's secondary isn't just struggling in coverage; it's also struggling to make tackles in the open field.
Gilbert has the best yards after catch per reception (5.5) of Carr's top three targets and ranks second behind Faison in yards per route run. Gilbert is also the most reliable of the three, securing 72.7% of his targets.
He's averaging 70.4 receiving yards in the six games in which he's run at least 20 routes. He's a bargain with a receiving yards line that's less than half of Faison's 69.5-yard total.
Prop pick #3: Darian Mensah Over 1.5 passing touchdowns
With Malachi Toney sidelined, Darian Mensah has an opportunity to take another step toward the Heisman tonight, and I'm backing him up to 55% to throw multiple touchdown passes.
Not only do the Hurricanes rank third in red-zone scoring, but only Notre Dame has a higher offensive Eckel rate than Miami this season.
As well as Notre Dame defends, the Irish are depleted on the back end heading into this game. Defensive captain Drayk Bowen is out at linebacker, and the secondary will be without DJ McKinney and Tae Johnson.
The Irish gave up three touchdown passes to UNC's Billy Edwards, one of the few quality passers they've faced this season. Mensah leads the nation in passing efficiency and completion rate, and getting him at this number is a gift.
- Prop picks: 9-5, +3.80 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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