Alabama and LSU renew their SEC rivalry on Saturday, Nov. 7, with both teams facing plenty of pressure heading into the final stretch of the season. Three Covers experts are backing the Tigers to cover at home, while one sees value in taking the points with the Crimson Tide.
Our Alabama vs LSU expert picks break down the case for both sides, with selections from Brad Powers, Rob Paul, Colby Marchio, and Chris Vasile. For more betting angles, check out our college football picks.
Alabama vs LSU expert picks for tonight
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 Probability |
|
|---|---|
 Brad Powers: LSU -5.5 |
51% |
 Rob Paul: LSU -5.5 |
51% |
 Colby Marchio: Alabama +5.5 |
49% |
 Chris Vasile: LSU -5.5 |
51% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Brad Powers' expert pick: LSU -5.5
I believe LSU's "A" game is the best in the country. The Tigers rank No. 1 nationally in yards-per-game margin, while Alabama ranks No. 43.
There's also a sense of urgency for LSU, which sits at No. 14 in the CFP rankings. What's the urgency for Alabama? The committee has essentially suggested the Crimson Tide could still get in with a loss.
Alabama's offense ranks No. 109 in havoc allowed, while LSU's defense ranks No. 4 in havoc created. We could see a result similar to the Alabama-Tennessee game, when the Crimson Tide were overwhelmed up front.
Rob Paul's expert pick: LSU -5.5
It's the first Saturday in November, which means it's time for the Saban Bowl. In Lane Kiffin's first game leading LSU against his old boss's former program, he has a chance to end the Tigers' losing streak.
LSU has lost three straight to Alabama, but the Crimson Tide are a shell of their former selves. Kalen DeBoer and Ryan Grubb can't seem to get the offense clicking. Alabama has averaged just 13.5 points per game against defenses ranked in the top 20 by SP+ and has failed to cover in three straight games.
The Tigers' defense, ranked No. 6 by SP+, might be the most ferocious unit Alabama has faced yet. Blake Baker's group ranks second nationally in sacks (34), fourth in havoc rate (22.2%), and eighth in pass success rate (36%).
Alabama's defense is catching LSU at a tough time, too. Sam Leavitt has cleaned up his game and now ranks fourth nationally in QBR (85.3) and 12th in adjusted completion percentage (79.5%).
Colby Marchio's expert pick: Alabama +5.5
This feels like a buy-low spot for the Crimson Tide following a rough three-week stretch. Alabama has lost two of its last three games and gone 0-3 ATS. Meanwhile, LSU has been humming, outscoring its last two opponents 69-17.
The Tigers are easily one of the best teams in the country when they're playing at their best. Both teams need a win, but I think 5.5 points is too many to lay with LSU here.
Roll Tide.
Chris Vasile's expert pick: LSU -5.5
LSU is finding its groove at the right time, outscoring its last two SEC opponents 69-17. Sam Leavitt ranks fourth nationally in QBR, while Jackson Harris has been a nightmare for opposing secondaries, piling up 480 yards and seven touchdowns over his last four SEC games.
That's bad news for an Alabama defense ranked 78th in passing success rate allowed. With LSU playing at home and its offense clicking, I'm backing the Tigers to win by at least a touchdown.
Alabama vs LSU odds for tonight
How to watch Alabama vs LSU
| Location | Tiger Stadium, Baton Rouge, La. |
| Date | Saturday, Nov. 7, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ABC |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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