Our Alabama vs. LSU score prediction expects the Crimson Tide to put up a fight in Death Valley but ultimately favors the Tigers to win their first game in this rivalry since 2022. These SEC foes face off today at Tiger Stadium in Baton Rouge, La., with kickoff set for 3:45 p.m. ET on ABC.
Our AI projection model forecasts a 28-24 LSU win in our college football AI predictions for Week 10, putting us on Alabama +5.5 and Under 52.5. Below, we compare those picks with the Covers projections and expert picks using odds from the best prediction market apps.
Alabama vs LSU score prediction & AI picks
Win probabilities courtesy of Kalshi at time of publish; latest odds may vary based on market action.
Alabama vs LSU AI prediction
SAT · NOV. 7 · 3:45 p.m. ET kickoff · ABC
Win probability based on marketMore analysis
Center Racin Delgatty’s return would help Alabama where LSU can hurt it most. The Tigers sacked Auburn seven times, and quarterback Keelon Russell has taken 22 sacks this season. Getting his starting center back would help Russell sort out pressure up the middle. Receiver Ryan Coleman-Williams gives him a target for the quick throw when LSU brings an extra rusher. Left guard William Sanders and running back EJ Crowell are still questionable. LSU linebacker Zach Weeks is off the availability report, though Whit Weeks remains doubtful. Rob Paul likes the Tigers to cover in his Alabama vs. LSU prediction. Our model has the Tide close enough that a late field goal could decide the spread.
Trey’Dez Green’s status matters to a total this tight. The LSU tight end caught five passes for 50 yards and a touchdown at Auburn in his first game back from a leg injury. He’s questionable against Alabama. Sam Leavitt threw for 387 yards and three touchdowns in that game, including a 70-yarder to Jackson Harris. Alabama cornerback Zabien Brown is questionable, too. If Green sits, forcing the Tigers to settle for a field goal on one red-zone trip could decide the Under. If Harris breaks free behind the secondary, there’s little room to spare. Our forecast lands at 52 points, just half a point below 52.5.
Alabama vs LSU AI projections & expert picks
| AI model | Covers projections | Covers expertBy Rob Paul |
|---|---|---|
| ALA+5.5 | LSU-6.5 | LSU-5.5 |
The Covers projections give LSU a 6.78-point margin, just enough to cover -6.5. Rob Paul takes LSU -5.5 and agrees with our Under 52.5. Our Week 10 spread pick is Alabama +5.5. At the current +6.5, a six-point LSU win would also cash an Alabama ticket.
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How our college football AI predictions work
Our college football AI predictions use a custom Bayesian score model built from historical game results, separate offensive and defensive team ratings, home-field effects, and college football scoring patterns. The matchup analysis adds context from current team statistics, injuries, and recent results.
Score projections are generated independently of market prices. We compare each fixed score with the selected full-game spread and total to derive our picks, and track results against the original selections and lines. Kalshi percentages are market purchase quotes, separate from the model’s forecasts; the two sides may not add to exactly 100%.
A narrow difference between a projected score and a market line is a lean, not a guarantee of an edge.
