Saturday night features a heavyweight Cy-Hawk clash in Iowa City between Iowa State and Iowa, and our projection model has pinpointed the sharpest plays on the card.
Powered by target share and workload forecasts for Jaylen Raynor and Kamari Moulton, here is where our numbers see edge in our Iowa State vs. Iowa computer picks and college football picks for Sept. 12.
Iowa State vs Iowa computer picks for Week 2
 Iowa State |
 Iowa |
|---|---|
| Raynor o149.5 passing yards 54% |
Moulton u92.5 rushing yards 49% |
| Fortenberry u19.5 receiving yards 77% |
Vonnahme u36.5 receiving yards 58% |
Iowa State computer picks
Jaylen Raynor Over 149.5 passing yards (54%)
Projection: 170.98 passing yards
For today’s rivalry showdown with Iowa, backing Jaylen Raynor to reach Over 149.5 passing yards holds strong value.
Raynor anchors Iowa State’s offense with elite playmaking and proven multi-year starter accuracy. While Iowa’s defensive system forces opponents into long drives, it frequently gives up high-percentage underneath routes. Expect Iowa State’s game plan to emphasize quick-release dropbacks and bootlegs to counter the Hawkeyes' front four.
Raynor needs only a handful of rhythm completions and chunk plays to blow past 150 yards, making this total a reachable mark regardless of how tight the overall game script stays.
🏈 Bet raynor passing yards now
Tyler Fortenberry Under 19.5 receiving yards (77%)
Projection: 18.52 receiving yards
Taking Under 19.5 receiving yards on Tyler Fortenberry is a strong angle against Iowa’s smothering defense. Operating primarily as an in-line blocking option in Iowa State’s tight end rotation, Fortenberry sees limited volume as a downfield target.
Iowa’s linebackers and safety group excel at limiting tight end production, eliminating run-after-catch opportunities and keeping underneath routes contained. With Iowa State likely leaning on its outside wideouts and quick-passing game to bypass Iowa’s secondary discipline, Fortenberry won't command the target share needed to clear 20 yards.
Expect a quiet statistical outing for the Cyclones' transfer tight end.
🔥 Bet fortenberry receiving yards now
Iowa computer picks
Kamari Moulton Under 92.5 rushing yards (49%)
Projection: 88.61 rushing yards
For today’s Cy-Hawk clash, make sure to back Kamari Moulton to finish Under 92.5 rushing yards.
While Moulton enters as Iowa’s clear lead back, Iowa State’s defensive front presents a significantly tougher test than non-conference opponents. The Cyclones consistently excel at clogging interior running lanes and forcing opposing offenses into third-and-long passing situations.
In what promises to be a physical, low-possession game script, Iowa State's main defensive priority will be stacking the line to force Iowa’s quarterbacks to beat them.
That defensive focus will cap Moulton's efficiency and keep him Under 92.5 yards.
🏈 Bet moulton rushing yards now
DJ Vonnahme Under 36.5 receiving yards (58%)
Projection: 35.86 receiving yards
While DJ Vonnahme commands attention in Iowa's passing game, Iowa State’s 3-3-5 defense is specifically engineered to take away intermediate crossing routes and limit yards after the catch.
The Cyclones consistently force opposing quarterbacks into short, check-down options or boundary throws.
In a hard-nosed, low-scoring rivalry setting where possessions will be limited, Vonnahme is unlikely to generate the explosive chunk plays required to clear this line, making the Under a solid play.
🔥 Bet vonnahme receiving yards now
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
