The USC Trojans (93%) look to move to 2-0 as they host a Fresno State (7%) squad with high expectations.
Much has been made about the Bulldogs' returning experience, but that ignores the quarterback position. Their offensive philosophy is ill-suited to overcoming a deficit, and I explain that issue with my Fresno State vs. USC predictions and college football picks for Friday, Sept. 4.
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Fresno State vs USC prediction: USC -21.5
Fresno State is overvalued because they return a ton of experience (156 starts) to a 9-4 team. What's being lost is that the Bulldogs weren't all that great, especially on offense (111th in success rate), and that'll be an issue against USC.
Jayden Mandal makes his first career start after surprisingly earning the nod this week. Given that he's thrown only nine career pass attempts, and two of those have been intercepted, it's fair to set the bar low for Fresno's offense in the opener.
The one-dimensional offensive attack might work well against lesser opponents, but it's not designed to play from behind.
USC's offense is poised for another lucrative season with Jayden Maiava at the helm, so the Trojans will score enough to get out to an insurmountable lead. I'd play USC to -23.5.
COVERS INTEL: Fresno State checks in at 85th in 247's team talent composite, lacking the talent and athleticism to match up with USC (eighth). 
Fresno State vs USC total prediction: Under 51.5
Fresno State will try its best to shorten this game. The Bulldogs ranked 109th in snaps per minute a season ago and return the tandem of Rayshon Luke and Bryson Donelson at running back, and both will be a heavy part of the game plan.
That'll keep the clock ticking and minimize possessions, and it's the reason Fresno went 5-8 O/U in Matt Entz's inaugural campaign.
The Bulldogs return nine of their top 18 tacklers to a defense that was pretty salty, ranking 32nd in success rate while surrendering only 18.8 ppg. Maiava and company will experience enough resistance that they're not an automatic bet to find the end zone every possession.
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Fresno State vs USC same-game parlay (SGP)
I can't emphasize enough how poorly suited Fresno's ground-heavy offensive approach is to playing from behind. That's exacerbated on the road against a very tough Big Ten opponent, all while breaking in an inexperienced and unheralded quarterback.
The Trojans held San Jose State to three points in the opening three quarters before getting lit up in garbage time. Well, Lincoln Riley was none too pleased about the lack of concentration in the final frame, and went so far as to call out names in the press.
With USC placing added importance on four quarters of defense, the Trojans will get out to a lead and maintain it without much pushback from Fresno's lackluster offense.
Fresno State vs USC SGP
- USC -21.5
- Under 51.5
- Fresno State Under 14.5 points scored
Fresno State vs USC odds
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- Spread: Fresno State +21.5 | USC -21.5
- Over/Under: Over 51.5 (54%) | Under 51.5 (51%)
- Moneyline: Fresno State 7% | USC 93%
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Fresno State vs USC weather
There's some wind (7-10 mph), but not enough to affect the outcome of this contest.
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Fresno State vs USC trend to know
USC is 5-2 ATS in its last seven non-conference games.. Find more college football betting trends for Fresno State vs. USC.
How to watch Fresno State vs USC
| Location | Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum, Los Angeles, CA |
| Date | Friday, Sept. 4, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 9 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
Fresno State vs USC latest injuries
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