Each week during the season, I’ll be going over my biggest college football power-ranking adjustments from the week prior and the best spot bets.
This week, we’re taking advantage of the most significant strength-of-schedule disparity, and a hot team against the spread that I don’t think the market is pricing properly. You can still pounce on both in this week's college football picks.
Week 10 power rankings for the Top 10
| Rank | Team | Last week | This week | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Georgia | 91.44 | 92.44 | 1.0 |
| 2 | Notre Dame | 91.40 | 89.90 | -1.5 |
| 3 | LSU | 89.16 | 89.16 | 0.0 |
| 4 | Ohio State | 89.78 | 87.78 | -2.0 |
| 5 | Miami (FL) | 88.65 | 87.65 | -1.0 |
| 6 | Alabama | 87.38 | 87.38 | 0.0 |
| 7 | Indiana | 88.03 | 87.03 | -1.0 |
| 8 | Texas | 86.57 | 86.57 | 0.0 |
| 9 | Ole Miss | 85.27 | 86.27 | 1.0 |
| 10 | Florida | 82.71 | 82.21 | -0.5 |
Brad Powers Week 10 top picks
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UNC
UConn
Louisiana Tech
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Brad Powers Week 10 power ratings
UNC -6.5 over UConn (Nov. 7, noon ET)
My power ratings make UNC a 9.5-point favorite in this game, one of the largest disparities of the week.
Everyone seems to have a “model” these days, and sometimes that can have an impact on a market. That may be the case here, as UConn is significantly better in yards-per-play margin and is at home catching a touchdown.
However, if there's a weakness in a stats-based model, it lies in how strength of schedule is quantified.
In this game, we get the largest strength-of-schedule difference of the week. According to Jeff Sagarin's strength of schedule rankings, North Carolina has played the 12th-toughest schedule, and Connecticut has played the No. 110 toughest.
On average, North Carolina’s opponents would be favored by 20 points over Connecticut’s opponents. Obviously, that kind of disparity would significantly impact stats.
While my power ratings do take into consideration many stats, strength of schedule is far more important, and that’s why my ratings love North Carolina this week.
Louisiana Tech -4.5 over Troy (Nov. 7, 4 p.m. ET)
My power ratings make Louisiana Tech a 6-point favorite.
Louisiana Tech has been one of the best trades to make in the market this year. It's 7-1 ATS with a cover margin of 8.7 points per game, sitting second-best in the country behind UCLA.
Usually, you start paying a big premium on great ATS teams this time of year. That's not the case with Louisiana Tech, as the school has only become stronger while outscoring its last three opponents by a combined 85-20 and covering during each game by at least nine points.
We're catching Troy off a huge upset win over James Madison last week as 17.5-point underdogs. It was misleading, as Troy only had a 20.7% post-game win expectancy.
Finally, I love the matchup here, with Louisiana Tech’s No. 16 defense in EPA/Play against a Troy offense that ranks No. 116 in EPA/Play. I expect a lot of disruption, as Troy is No. 115 in Havoc allowed while Louisiana Tech ranks No. 5 in Havoc created.
Biggest upgrades from last week
📈 Baylor up 2.5 points
The one-game interim coach bump is alive and well. After firing head coach Dave Aranda, Baylor opened as a 1.5-point underdog at UCF last week. They closed as 2.5-point favorites.
Baylor would play their best game of the season while crushing UCF 41-9 and outgaining the Knights by 222 yards. Interim head coach Joe Klanderman said he hopes to provide a jolt of energy for the Bears after the coaching change. It seems he did.
📈 Charlotte up 2.0 points
For the second consecutive game, Charlotte took a lot of money in the market. They opened as 13.5-point underdogs last Sunday and closed at 7.5 points. No matter what number you traded Charlotte at then, you cashed. They lost by seven in overtime to Tulane. Charlotte should have won the game outright, as it led by 10 in the middle of the fourth quarter.
📈 South Carolina up 2.0 points
A case could be made that no one is playing better right now than South Carolina. The market has started to notice, too. South Carolina opened as a 5.5-point underdog at Oklahoma last week before closing at 3.5.
The team's backers were easily rewarded, as South Carolina crushed the Sooners 42-25. It was worse than the final score, as Oklahoma tallied the game's final nine points. South Carolina was also minus-3 in turnovers and still easily covered.
Biggest downgrades from last week
📉 Oklahoma down 2.5 points
Oklahoma's season is officially on the brink. Last week South Carolina crushed the Sooners at home 42-25. Oklahoma was plus-three in turnovers and still managed to come up 20.5 points short of the spread.
Oklahoma entered the season with playoff aspirations. Now it will be fortunate to make a bowl game. I project Oklahoma to be an underdog in three of its last four games.
📉 UCF down 2.5 points
Fresh off one of the biggest wins in school history (an upset of No. 2 BYU), UCF laid an egg at home against Baylor. The Knights lost 41-9 and were outgained by 222 yards as 2.5-point underdogs.
The market moved against them four points last week. I faded them again this week, taking their opponent Kansas -1.5 on the Sunday opening lines.
📉 Georgia State down 2.5 points
Georgia State starting quarterback Cameran Brown did not play last week. Georgia State opened as a 6.5-point favorite before closing at 3.5 against Coastal Carolina.
Georgia State would lose 31-20. It was worse than the final, as Georgia State trailed 31-6 entering the fourth quarter, and it benefited from a plus-two turnover margin.
Keep an eye on the injury report this week. If Brown doesn't play, I don't like Georgia State's chances at Appalachian State.
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