The college football season is in the home stretch, with the first set of College Football Playoff rankings released earlier this week and just four more Saturdays of regular season action left.
While the Heisman Trophy odds race is still wide open, it's increasingly clear that only four legitimate candidates remain, and a massive Week 10 showdown between a few of them could make or break their cases.
With Darian Mensah and Malachi Toney leading No. 1 Miami against CJ Carr and No. 11 Notre Dame in Week 10, they're the focus of my Heisman Hedge Fund.
Latest Heisman Trophy odds
For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
There's a new Heisman Trophy odds favorite ahead of Week 10 after Ohio State's Jeremiah Smith saw his probability drop from 39% to 26% following the Buckeyes' loss to USC in Week 9.
Smith, who had been atop the board for weeks, had a 55% probability of taking home the Heisman after Week 6, but the injury to Ohio State QB Julian Sayin caused his probability to drop to 42%, then 39%, and now just 26%.
Taking advantage of Smith's fall is Miami's Darian Mensah, who led the Hurricanes to a comeback win against North Carolina in Week 10. The win over the Tar Heels caused his Heisman probability to jump from 21% to 37%, while his top receiver, Malachi Toney, moved up from 17% to 21%.
The only other legitimate contender is Notre Dame's CJ Carr, who was the preseason favorite and can rehabilitate his Heisman resume with a win over the Hurricanes in Week 10; the Fighting Irish are a 5.5-point favorite.
It seems unlikely any player other than Smith, Mensah, Toney, or Carr will win the Heisman at this point, with Ole Miss' Trinidad Chambliss being the only other player with a higher than 1% chance (8%).
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Week 10 Heisman odds portfolio strategy
| Player, POS | Position |  Probability |
Action/price |
|---|---|---|---|
 Malachi Toney if you haven't |
Buy | 21% | Yes (21¢) |
| 📉 CJ Carr and/or Darian Mensah | Sell | N/A% | N/A |
 Jeremiah Smith, WR |
Hold | 26% | Yes (current price: 26¢/purchase price: 7¢) |
| ❌ None | Penny stock | N/A% | N/A |
Buy: Malachi Toney, if you haven't
- Kalshi probability: 21%
- 2026 stats: 73 receptions, 1,027 receiving yards, 13 TDs
- Key metric: Leads the country in receptions that have ended in a first down or TD (49)
- Week 10 opponent: at Notre Dame
There's no reason Toney should be priced this much lower than Mensah. The Hurricanes' 38-35 win over North Carolina was a perfect example of why Toney is the better Heisman candidate.
On the opening drive of the game, Toney caught four passes for 27 yards and a touchdown. Bill Belichick then put on his defensive mastermind hat and sold out to stop Toney, effectively shutting him down for the next two quarters as the Tar Heels built a 21-17 lead.
In the end, though, Toney was inevitable and made key plays when Miami needed it, including scoring the game-clinching touchdown. In a matchup where the opponent's entire defensive game plan was based around stopping Toney, he had 86 yards and two touchdowns on eight touches.
Toney is Miami's star, not Mensah
The win also showed that Mensah, for as deadly accurate as he is, isn't the dynamic threat defensive coordinators are most worried about... he's the point guard who feeds the second-best player in college football (Smith being the first).
So while he's not even the favorite on his own team, Toney's Heisman stock is worth buying. He has zero drops this season, is tied for the lead in yards per route run (4.30), is fourth nationally in YAC (497), and Mensah has a nearly perfect NFL QB rating when throwing to him (157.8).
More importantly, if Toney produces big numbers against Notre Dame, a loss won't hurt his Heisman chances the way it will Mensah's.
Sell: The QB you think will lose in Week 10
Darian Mensah, Miami
- Kalshi probability: 37%
- 2026 stats: 2,425 passing yards, 27 total TDs, 1 INT
- Key metric: 127th nationally in ADOT (7.7)
- Week 10 opponent: at Notre Dame
The fact that the Heisman favorite, leading the No. 1 team in the country, takes on the second-leading QB in the Heisman race this late in the season is absolute cinema. The only thing that makes it better is that Mensah is doing it as a 5.5-point underdog.
If Mensah loses this game, with Miami having a weak schedule in the ACC, Mensah's Heisman resume will take a massive hit. Yes, he's leading the most efficient offense in the country and is No. 1 nationally in QBR (90.3) and adjusted completion percentage (86.2%), but Shannon Dawson's offense isn't asking him to carry this team.
Toney is Miami's best player, and it's so clear, especially when half of the Hurricanes' most explosive plays come on screen passes to him. So, if you think Miami will lose to Notre Dame, sell Mensah's Heisman stock now.
CJ Carr, Notre Dame
- Kalshi probability: 10%
- 2026 stats: 1,849 passing yards, 21 total TDs, 1 INT
- Key metric: 64th nationally in adjusted completion percentage (74.2%)
- Week 10 opponent: vs. Miami
However, if you think the Hurricanes will win the game as an underdog, the smartest move is to sell Carr as a Heisman contender. He already has the weakest resume of the four favorites, and the CFP rankings didn't even rank the Fighting Irish in the top 10 at 7-1... that means a loss to Miami likely means Notre Dame misses the playoff.
Carr lacks the numbers of a Heisman winner — on pace for just 27 touchdown passes and 2,773 passing yards in the regular season — and that's with a schedule that's far from impressive. Notre Dame has played one ranked team, BYU, and lost.
If the Fighting Irish lose to the Hurricanes, Carr will have a 1% Heisman probability next week, and even a win likely won't put him above Smith and Toney if they continue at their current paces.
It's the year of the wide receiver in college football, so I'll continue to fade both Mensah and Carr.
Hold: Jeremiah Smith, WR, Ohio State
- Kalshi probability: 26%
- 2026 stats: 62 receptions, 1,067 passing yards, 13 TDs
- Key metric: Tied for first nationally in yards per route run (4.30)
- Week 10 opponent: vs. Oregon
In Smith's first game without Sayin, the Buckeyes lost on the road to USC. Despite the loss, Smith still caught 10 passes for 83 yards and scored a touchdown that made him the Big Ten's all-time leader in receiving touchdowns (40).
If the Heisman favorite is catching 10 passes in a true freshman QB's first career start, I'm not selling him as a contender. Was Luke Fahey playing at Sayin's level against the Trojans? Heck no, but he wasn't horrific, and he targeted Smith 14 times.
Ryan Day and Fahey want to feed the best player in college football, and Ohio State has several marquee games left on its schedule. There's almost no way Smith isn't a finalist for the award, and Mensah and Toney facing Carr this week should only boost his chances, especially if Notre Dame beats the Hurricanes.
Everyone knows Smith is the best player in the sport, and his numbers are hard to argue against. The potential No. 1 pick in the 2027 NFL Draft ranks first or tied for first among Power Four players in receiving yards (1,067), receiving touchdowns (13), yards per route run (4.30), and contested catches (15).
The Buckeyes are a 7.5-point favorite against Oregon in Week 10, and if Smith produces in a win and Miami loses, the Ohio State star will be back on top of the Heisman odds.
Penny Stock: None
This Heisman race is coming down to Smith, Mensah, Toney, and Carr, and a Miami win over Notre Dame likely ends Carr's shot, which would lead to Chambliss being the fourth Heisman finalist. Buying in on any other player isn't worth it this late into the season.
However, I will say that Wake Forest's Gio Lopez not even being listed as an option on the board is ridiculous. The CFP committee disrespected the Demon Deacons by ranking them 16th with a 7-1 record (their lone loss came to No. 1 Miami), and Lopez isn't getting his due either.
Lopez has Wake looking like it will get a rematch with Miami in the ACC Championship, and the North Carolina transfer ranks top 15 nationally in QBR (84.5), TD passes (18), and passing yards (2,176).
He was banged up against Virginia in Week 9, but by all accounts he should be fine, which means Wake could go 11-1 this season. Head coach Jake Dickert is even being rumored as a candidate for the Florida State opening.
Put Lopez on the board.
My Heisman portfolio tracker
| Player | Week added | Position | Entry price/current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremiah Smith, WR |
Week 0 | Buy (Yes) | 6¢/26¢ |
 Keelon Russell, QB |
Week 0 | Buy (Yes) | 6¢/1¢ |
 Dante Moore, QB |
Week 0 | Buy (Yes) | 6¢/1¢ |
 Josh Hoover, QB |
Week 1 | Buy (Yes) | 5¢/1¢ |
| Malachi Toney, WR |
Week 2 | Buy (Yes) | 7¢/21¢ |
 Jadan Baugh, RB |
Week 4 | Buy (Yes) | 3¢/1¢ |
 Devon Dampier, QB |
Week 6 | Buy (Yes) | 1¢/1¢ |
 Jesse Legree, WR |
Week 7 | Buy (Yes) | 3¢/1¢ |
 CJ Carr, QB |
Week 0 | Sell (No) | 89¢/91¢ |
 Sam Leavitt, QB |
Week 0 | Sell (No) | 97¢/99¢ |
 LaNorris Sellers, QB |
Week 1 | Sell (No) | 98¢/99¢ |
 Jayden Maiava, QB |
Week 2 | Sell (No) | 96¢/99¢ |
 Arch Manning, QB |
Week 3 | Sell (No) | 92¢/99¢ |
| Darian Mensah, QB |
Week 4 | Sell (No) | 83¢/65¢ |
| Josh Hoover, QB |
Week 5 | Sell (No) | 97¢/99¢ |
 Gunner Stockton, QB |
Week 6 | Sell (No) | 96¢/99¢ |
 Trinidad Chambliss, QB |
Week 7 | Sell (No) | 95¢/94¢ |
 Bear Bachmeier, QB |
Week 8 | Sell (No) | 97¢/99¢ |
 Drew Mestemaker, QB |
Week 0 | Penny stock (Yes) | 2¢/1¢ |
 Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele, QB |
Week 0 | Penny stock (Yes) | 2¢/1¢ |
 Will Hammond, QB |
Week 1 | Penny stock (Yes) | 2¢/1¢ |
 Kamario Taylor, QB |
Week 2 | Penny stock (Yes) | 2¢/1¢ |
 Austin Simmons, QB |
Week 3 | Penny stock (Yes) | 1¢/1¢ |
 Lincoln Kienholz, QB |
Week 4 | Penny stock (Yes) | 1¢/1¢ |
| Colin Simmons, EDGE |
Week 5 | Penny stock (Yes) | 1¢/1¢ |
| Julian Sayin, QB |
Week 6 | Penny stock (Yes) | 1¢/1¢ |
 Conner Weigman, QB |
Week 8 | Penny stock (Yes) | 1¢/1¢ |
| Charlie Becker, WR |
Week 9 | Penny stock (Yes) | 1¢/1¢ |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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