My Mavericks vs. Spurs prediction suggests tonight's battle in the Lone Star State will be a completely one-sided affair, as projections already anticipate and as history has dictated.
The Mavericks hit the road as a substantial 11.5-point underdog on the spread for 9:30 p.m. ET tipoff at the Frost Bank Center.
Let's dive into my analysis and NBA picks for Wednesday, Nov. 4.
TOP PICK
Mavericks vs Spurs prediction: Spurs -11.5
Play up to 60%.
With Kyrie Irving (knee) out on Monday night, the Dallas Mavericks put forth an embarrassing effort and let the putrid Sacramento Kings annihilate them on their home floor, eventually losing by 15 points.
Tonight's 11.5-point spread is the second-largest of the season, painting Dallas as underdogs. The biggest, conveniently enough, was back on Oct. 24 at +14.5 vs. the San Antonio Spurs in a 16-point beatdown, albeit without both Irving and Cooper Flagg.
The Spurs are holding opponents to 106.8 points per 100 possessions during their ongoing five-game winning streak, 3.6 points less than the third-ranked defense they posted a season ago.
Their average margin of victory during that stretch is 16.2 points, only slightly below the 17.1-point average margin by which San Antonio has annihilated Dallas in their last six meetings by.
Even with Irving expected to play, that Kings result left such a sour taste that expecting the Mavericks to cover against a scorching-hot rival is asking the world right now.
COVERS INTEL: Including the playoffs, the Spurs were 21-4 straight up and 14-11 ATS whenever favored by double digits during the 2025-26 campaign. Two of those victories and covers came against Dallas at home. 
Mavericks vs Spurs combo
The Mavericks will almost certainly muster a more spirited effort 48 hours after such a miserable performance, but projections are what they are for a reason.
San Antonio's competition has been bottom of the barrel, but it's still a reigning finalist with a healthy, talented core that's had Dallas' number for a while.
Both teams currently have 2-5 records in the total market. The Spurs have a 10th-ranked offense, but when the total is set at 228 points or higher, they've hit the Over only twice in five games.
Victor Wembanyama has finished with four or more assists in three straight games after recording exactly two in his three prior outings. He's tied for third on the roster in that department during that span.
Mavericks vs Spurs combo
- Spurs moneyline
- Under 228.5 points
- Victor Wembanyama Over 2.5 assists
Mavericks vs Spurs player props
Mavericks player prop: Cooper Flagg Over 5.5 assists
Play up to 62%.
Irving's status should have little to no bearing on whether Flagg can hit the Over on 5.5 assists.
The sophomore phenom is averaging 6.6 in five games with the superstar point guard. In his lone start without him on Monday, Flagg had six dimes on eight potential assists.
Flagg has become a player who commands respect from defenders due to his offensive intangibles, and the Spurs will surely look to force someone else on Dallas to beat them.
That means trying to get the rock out of Flagg's hands, whether it's through immense pressure or double teams. Passing out of those situations means generating assist opportunities, which is why I love this play.
Spurs player prop: Dylan Harper Over 15.5 points
I'll be taking this number up to 17.5 points.
Sacramento's backcourt (Zach LaVine, Malik Monk, and Darius Acuff Jr.) combined for 72 points on 55% shooting against Dallas on Monday.
Nearly two-thirds of Dylan Harper's minutes have come in the Spurs' frontcourt this season, but he's a natural two-guard who's only playing out of position so he can be a part of the starting lineup.
The 20-year-old floor general has gone Over 15.5 points in all but two games. He's averaging 21 points on 55.6% from the field in his last two appearances, and would have finished with more than the 17 points he recorded against the Utah Jazz on Monday had he played more minutes in what ended up being a blowout.
- Top picks: 8-7, -0.87
- Combos: 4-11, +10.96 units
- Props: 16-13, +0.51 units
Mavericks vs Spurs odds
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Spread: Mavericks +11.5 (53%) | Spurs -11.5 (53%)
- Over/Under: Over 227.5 (64%) | Under 227.5 (62%)
- Moneyline: Mavericks (20%) | Spurs (82%)
For the full slate of NBA matchups, check out our NBA odds board!
Mavericks vs Spurs trend
Mavericks are 5-0 ATS in their last five games playing on one day's rest. Find more NBA betting trends.
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How to watch Mavericks vs Spurs
| Location | Frost Bank Center, San Antonio, TX |
| Date | Wednesday, Nov. 4, 2026 |
| Tip off | 9:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Mavericks vs Spurs latest injuries
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Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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