If the Kansas State Wildcats are going to make the most out of March, they need to take care of business at the end of February.
The Wildcats welcome the West Virginia Mountaineers to Manhattan for a Big 12 battle on Monday night, with the college basketball odds installing KSU as a near double-digit home favorite.
Kansas State snapped a three-game slide with a home win over BYU on Saturday and gave their backers a fourth ATS winner in the past five games.
The Mountaineers are set as betting underdogs for the 15th straight game, going 5-9 ATS in the previous 14 outings as point-spread pups. West Virginia is winless on the road with a 0-7 SU mark in true road games, trickling out to a 1-6 ATS count as a visitor.
I size up the spread and Over/Under total for this Big 12 tussle and give my best college basketball picks for West Virginia at Kanas State on February 26.
West Virginia vs Kansas State best odds
West Virginia vs Kansas State picks and predictions
It’s been a long season for the West Virginia Mountaineers, starting with the Bob Huggins drama last spring. Interim head coach Josh Eilert has tried to keep this train on the tracks, but Monday’s trip to Manhattan is a tough task for a WVU team that hasn’t won away from home yet this season.
The Mountaineers’ up-tempo attack just isn’t pumping out the points like it used to and that’s especially true when they hit the highway. West Virginia is barely putting up more than 63 points as a visitor while shooting an effective field goal rate of just 46.5% in those foreign gyms.
Turnover troubles continue to tear apart any offensive cohesion (WVU averaging 14.9 turnovers on the road), as evidenced by the 23 turnovers in the loss at Iowa State on Saturday. Now, WVU has to make its way to Kansas State for a second straight road stop with little rest and a lot of travel in between games.
The Wildcats rank among the Top 15 in the all-important defensive efficiency metric at KenPom.com and are especially stingy on their own floor. They’re allowing just 67.5 points as hosts and have slowed down rival offenses that are much more dangerous than WVU.
The Kansas State Wildcats had a very solid defensive showing in its last run-in with West Virginia. It limited the Mountaineers to 67 points and 39% shooting on their own floor, with 25 of those tallies coming in the second half.
West Virginia’s tempo is tops in the Big 12 in pace rating but that doesn’t mean it scores at a high rate. In fact, WVU is suffering through a downtick in field goal attempts in recent outings, averaging less than 51 shots per game over the last three contests — compared to its average of 55.4 FGA per game on the season.
Game models call for a comfortable KSU victory tonight with WVU putting up between 63 and 64 points, which sits south of the ‘Neers team total of 66.5 points. Factor in the fatigue of a tight turnaround — and the sloppy play and poor shooting that can come with it — and I like West Virginia to fall short of its scoring total tonight.
My best bet: West Virginia team total Under 66.5 (-113 at FanDuel)
West Virginia vs Kansas State same-game parlay
West Virginia team total Under 66.5
Kansas State moneyline
Tylor Perry Over 3.5 assists
The Mountaineers’ road woes will be amplified against one of the toughest home defenses in the Big 12.
Perry averages almost five assists per game and he’ll jump-start KSU’s transition offense by flipping turnovers into fastbreak buckets. Projections call for five dimes from the Wildcats point guard tonight.
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West Virginia vs Kansas State spread and Over/Under analysis
The Wildcats opened between -9.5 and -10 on Sunday night and the market leveled at a consensus of -9.5 overnight. However, on Monday morning, there are some moves to KSU -10 at sharp sportsbooks. Covers Consensus shows 54% of early picks taking the points with the Mountaineers.
Kansas State does play its best ball inside Bramlage Coliseum, boasting a 12-3 SU record but just a 7-8 mark against the spread at home. The Wildcats average 74.4 points as a host (almost six points more than on the road) and are stingy in front of the KSU faithful, allowing foes to fight for just 67.5 points against per homestand.
West Virginia has been pretty bad overall this season, but those woes are amplified away from Morgantown. As mentioned, the Mountaineers are 0-7 SU and 1-6 ATS in true road games, with the offense puttering for only 63.3 points per away game.
Tonight’s game is the second straight roadie for WVU on a tight turnaround after losing 71-64 as an 18-point underdog at Iowa State on Saturday.
The Over/Under total for Monday opened at 143.5 points and has since slimmed as low as 142.5, with Covers Consensus showing 54% of early picks taking the Over.
The Wildcats are 12-14-1 Over/Under on the season, including 7-7-1 O/U at home. Kansas State blew away the closing total of 144.5 points in the 84-74 win over BYU this weekend but has had mixed results for total bettors in recent weeks, going 2-2-1 O/U in its last five showings.
The Mountaineers’ up-tempo style hasn’t panned out in Over winners, with WVU owning a 13-14 O/U mark on the year. West Virginia is 2-5 O/U in true road games and finished below the total at Iowa State on Saturday. The Neers are 2-5 O/U in their previous five contests.
These Big 12 foes faced off in Morgantown on January 9, with KSU running away with an 81-67 victory as 2-point road chalk and holding WVU to only 25 points in the second half. Despite that, the final score played Over the closing total of 141.5 points thanks to the Wildcats’ second-biggest scoring effort of the conference calendar.
West Virginia vs Kansas State betting trend to know
West Virginia has gone Under its team total in nine of its last 12 away games and has gone Under the team total in 19 of its last 32 games overall. Find more college basketball betting trends for West Virginia vs. Kansas State.
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West Virginia vs Kansas State game info
| Location: | Bramlage Coliseum, Manhattan, KS |
| Date: | Monday, February 26, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN2 |
West Virginia vs Kansas State key injuries
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