Thunder vs Lakers Same-Game Parlay for Monday's NBA Playoffs Game 4

Douglas Farmer - Betting Analyst at Covers
Douglas Farmer • Betting Analyst 18+ years betting experience
Updated: May 10, 2026 , 04:27 PM ET • 4 min read

Farmer's Prediction: Thunder in 4, not even needing an MVP effort.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Oklahoma City Thunder NBA
Photo By - Reuters Connect. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander gets to the rim in Game 3.

The Oklahoma City Thunder have nothing to worry about. Neither does their star. The Los Angeles Lakers are simply outmatched in this series.

This Thunder vs. Lakers same-game parlay might look like doubt in OKC, but it is actually voicing even more doubt in LA in Game 4 on Monday, May 11.

It's all part of our full Thunder vs. Lakers predictions and NBA picks for this Western Conference contest.

Our best Thunder vs Lakers SGP for Game 4

SGP leg #1: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Under 28.5 points (-115)

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander does not need to score in bunches. One of the NBA’s most clutch players — and that is putting it lightly so as to avoid debate from any De’Aaron Fox or Anthony Edwards fans — Gilgeous-Alexander is more likely not to play in the fourth quarter than he is to find himself in a clutch moment.

The presumptive MVP has averaged just 21 points per game in this series because he does not need to average more. The Oklahoma City Thunder are blowing out the Los Angeles Lakers so handily that Gilgeous-Alexander can coast in this series.

SGP leg #2: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Under 3.5 rebounds (+120)

Gilgeous-Alexander grabbed only two rebounds in each of Games 1 and 2. Then he exploded in Game 3 with … four rebounds.

Again, SGA does not need to do more. Rebounding is an effort-forward task, and Gilgeous-Alexander does not need to put in the effort in this series.

That comes in the next round, no matter the opponent. Oklahoma City is simply being prudent by letting its star coast this week.

SGP leg #3: Thunder moneyline (-525)

The Thunder know better than most how vital some rest can be this time of year. They should put this series to bed as quickly as possible so as to add a few days of quiet before the Western Conference Finals.

With any luck, the Timberwolves and Spurs will stretch to seven games, giving Oklahoma City that much more of an advantage.


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See our full Thunder vs Lakers Game 4 preview

Get Douglas Farmer's full breakdown of this game, including his best bet, plus the latest NBA odds, injuries, and betting trends, in his Thunder vs Lakers predictions for Game 4.

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Douglas Farmer
Betting Analyst

Douglas Farmer spends his days thinking about college football and his nights thinking about the NBA. His betting habits and coverage follow that same pattern. He covered Notre Dame football for various outlets from 2008 to 2024, most notably spending eight seasons as NBC Sports’ beat writer on the Irish. That was also when his gambling focus took off. Knowing there were veteran beat writers with three decades more experience than he had, Douglas found his niche by best recognizing Notre Dame’s standing in each year’s national landscape, a complex tapestry most easily understood and remembered via betting odds.

In 2021, that interest created a freelance opportunity with Covers, a role that eventually led to Douglas joining the company full-time in 2023. In the fall, Douglas will place five or six dozen bets each week, a disproportionate amount via BetRivers because the operator tends to have lines slightly different than the rest of the market. The same can be said of Circa Sports’ futures markets.

While Douglas is an avid NBA fan and covers the league throughout the year, the vast majority of his bets are on college football, because that is the biggest key to sports betting: Know what you do not know.

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