The nine-game NBA Cup slate on Friday, Nov. 13, tips off with the New York Knicks visiting the Indiana Pacers at 7 p.m. ET and ends with the Oklahoma City Thunder against the Los Angeles Clippers at 10:30 p.m. ET.
Our NBA moneyline picks cover all nine matchups in tipoff order, with probabilities based on Polymarket prices.
The Houston Rockets are the biggest favorites at 91%, while the Sacramento Kings are the steepest underdogs we're backing at 19%.
Find more analysis and predictions on our NBA picks page for Friday, Nov. 13. Keep track of the NBA Cup odds for the in-season tournament champion.
NBA moneyline picks: Nov. 13
For help understanding Polymarket probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Matchup | Pick |
|---|---|
 Knicks Pacers |
30% |
 Bucks Magic |
23% |
 Cavaliers Heat |
56% |
 Hawks Bulls |
71% |
 Grizzlies Pelicans |
60% |
 Jazz Rockets |
91% |
 Warriors Spurs |
87% |
 Trail Blazers Kings |
19% |
 Thunder Clippers |
25% |
Percentages courtesy of Polymarket, one of our best prediction market apps.
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Expert NBA moneyline picks: Nov. 13
Knicks vs Pacers: Pacers
Tyrese Haliburton has been New York's kryptonite in past matchups, and even with him sidelined, I have to side with the Pacers at 30%.
The Knicks trading at 71% is simply too high.
Ivica Zubac's screening ability could be a major difference-maker in this matchup. If he can create separation for Indiana's guards with his screens, it will force Karl-Anthony Towns to defend extended pick-and-roll actions in space, an area where the Pacers can look to exploit him.
Bucks vs Magic: Bucks
Jalen Suggs has been upgraded to questionable for this matchup against the Milwaukee Bucks.
Even if I account for Suggs playing 25 minutes in my projection, Milwaukee still comes out as a 27% winner. With the Bucks trading at just 23%, I have to grab them here.
I already see an edge with Suggs potentially playing, and that's a big if. If he's ultimately ruled out, this position could look even better.
Cavaliers vs Heat: Heat
I price the Heat closer to 61% favorites, so I'm happy to hit the button at 56% on Polymarket.
The Cavaliers will be without Evan Mobley, who is sidelined with a toe injury. This is a particularly tough matchup to lose him in, given the presence of Giannis Antetokounmpo and Bam Adebayo in Miami's frontcourt.
Mobley's absence is a significant factor in my projection and is the primary driver behind the edge on the Heat.
Hawks vs Bulls: Hawks
Caleb Wilson has been ruled out against the Atlanta Hawks and is expected to miss the next four to six weeks while recovering from a fractured right hand.
Dyson Daniels and Nickeil Alexander-Walker give Atlanta two versatile, switchable defenders who can make life difficult for Josh Giddey and disrupt his perimeter creation. Wilson's absence also gives the Hawks one less offensive threat to account for defensively.
At 71%, I'm happy to grab the Hawks on the moneyline.
Grizzlies vs Pelicans: Grizzlies
I'll back the Grizzlies all day at 60%, as I price Memphis closer to a 66% favorite against the Pelicans.
With Trey Murphy III listed as doubtful, New Orleans could be without one of its most important perimeter shooters. Murphy doesn't just provide three-point shooting. His ability to knock down shots from well beyond the arc creates valuable spacing.
That spacing will be particularly important against Memphis, which has the size of Isaiah Stewart and Cameron Boozer to help wall off the paint and make life difficult for Zion Williamson.
There are also some potential chemistry concerns in New Orleans. If you've been following Dejounte Murray on social media, there have been some strange vibes surrounding the Pelicans' locker room lately.
Jazz vs Rockets: Rockets
91% is a steep price, but believe it or not, I actually make the Rockets an even bigger favorite at 92%.
It's a small edge, but there's still value in backing Houston at 91%.
Utah's frontcourt is depleted, which should allow the Rockets, particularly Alperen Sengun, to feast in the paint and generate efficient offense throughout the night.
Warriors vs Spurs: Spurs
The Spurs are trading as 87% favorites, but I actually make them an even stronger 90% favorite.
With Stephen Curry sidelined, Brandin Podziemski and De'Anthony Melton will be tasked with running the Warriors' backcourt.
I have serious concerns about their ability to create offense and keep the team organized against the point-of-attack defense of Stephon Castle and Dylan Harper.
Trail Blazers vs Kings: Kings
The Sacramento Kings have to win a game at some point, right?
Sometimes sports just don't make sense, and I'm hoping this is one of those spots. The Portland Trail Blazers just beat the Oklahoma City Thunder in back-to-back games, so naturally, I'm looking for them to come back down to earth in Sacramento.
I'll always trust the math, and my projections make the Kings closer to a 24% underdog than the 19% they're currently trading at.
Thunder vs Clippers: Clippers
I price the Clippers closer to a 30% underdog against the Thunder, so I'm comfortable hitting the button at 25%.
My projection does account for Ajay Mitchell playing for Oklahoma City and returning from his sprained ankle.
While Mitchell's availability isn't guaranteed, I always like to stress-test my positions against less favorable injury scenarios to make sure the edge holds. Even with Mitchell projected to play, the Clippers at 25% still offer value.
Today's NBA moneyline combo
Heat
Grizzlies
Hawks
With this being an NBA Cup Friday, I'm going to use both the Heat and Hawks in the combo, as both teams are 1-0 in group play and should be playing with a little more juice than usual.
The Grizzlies get the nod as the third leg because I like the value at 60%, but I also love the matchups from a pure basketball perspective.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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