The five-game NBA slate on Saturday, Nov. 14 tips off with the Denver Nuggets visiting the New Orleans Pelicans at 7 p.m. ET and ends with the Chicago Bulls against the Minnesota Timberwolves at 8 p.m. ET.
Our NBA moneyline picks cover all five matchups in tipoff order, with probabilities based on Polymarket prices.
The Minnesota Timberwolves are the biggest favorites at 89%, while the Miami Heat are the steepest underdogs we're backing at 37%.
Find more analysis and predictions on our NBA picks page for Saturday, Nov. 14.
NBA moneyline picks: Nov. 14
For help understanding Polymarket probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Matchup | Pick |
|---|---|
 Nuggets Pelicans |
83% |
 Mavericks Cavaliers |
42% |
 Pistons Heat |
37% |
 Nets Grizzlies |
64% |
 Bulls Timberwolves |
89% |
Percentages courtesy of Polymarket, one of our best prediction market apps.
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Expert NBA moneyline picks: Nov. 14
Nuggets vs. Pelicans: Nuggets
The New Orleans Pelicans are playing the second night of a back-to-back, Trey Murphy's status remains uncertain after he missed his third straight game Friday, and Dejounte Murray has also popped up on the injury report.
There's a lot of uncertainty surrounding this Pelicans roster right now.
The 83% is close to fair value in my projections, but that assumes both Murray and Murphy are in the lineup.
I think there's a good chance one or both sit, and if that's the case, the current 83% offers a nice edge on the Nuggets.
Mavericks vs. Cavaliers: Mavericks
Evan Mobley's status is huge here. You're talking about a Defensive Player of the Year who has the mobility and athleticism to make life difficult for Cooper Flagg or Jaylon Tyson in the Cavaliers' starting lineup.
If Mobley plays around 30 minutes, the 42% is right in line with my projections for the Mavericks.
However, if Mobley sits, it's a significant boost to Flagg's projection and, ultimately, the Mavericks' chances of winning.
In that scenario, the 42% offers a very strong edge on Dallas.
Pistons vs. Heat: Heat
At 37%, I'm backing the Miami Heat here, as I price them closer to a 46% underdog against the Detroit Pistons. This is the biggest edge we're seeing on the board.
Detroit's frontcourt will face a significant defensive test without Jalen Duren, particularly against Bam Adebayo and Giannis Antetokounmpo.
Paul Reed is a solid backup, but he's undersized for this matchup. We just saw what Alex Sarr and Anthony Davis did to the Pistons in their last game, combining for 60 points on 71% shooting from the field.
That should give us an indication of the problems Detroit could face containing Miami's frontcourt.
Nets vs. Grizzlies: Grizzlies
Even on the second night of a back-to-back, I really like the Grizzlies at 64%, as I price Memphis closer to a 68% favorite against the Brooklyn Nets.
Zach Edey is out Friday for left ankle injury maintenance, which makes me think he's being held out of the front end of the back-to-back to be available against Brooklyn on Saturday.
A frontcourt featuring Edey, Cameron Boozer, and Isaiah Stewart would present a massive size advantage that the Nets simply aren't equipped to handle.
Bulls vs. Timberwolves: Timberwolves
Imagine being told a couple of weeks ago that the Timberwolves would be trading as an 89% favorite without Anthony Edwards, and we'd still have an edge at that price. I actually have Minnesota closer to a 91% favorite.
That's a testament to how efficiently this team has continued to operate under LaMelo Ball's leadership and playmaking in Edwards' absence.
It's the second night of a back-to-back for the Bulls, so I wouldn't be surprised if they make some adjustments to their injury report. However, this edge is based on the assumption that everyone currently healthy remains available.
Today's NBA moneyline combo
Heat
Grizzlies
I like the Nuggets and Timberwolves as well, but I'm going with the Heat, Mavericks, and Grizzlies for this combo. The Nuggets and Timberwolves are both trading north of 80%, so they don't do much to boost the overall payout.
I wouldn't have an issue using any combination of these five teams, but I'd definitely look to incorporate the Heat in some capacity.
The Heat offer the biggest edge on the board and bring the most value to the combo.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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