With the series evened up and now a best-of-three, the Oklahoma City Thunder head home for a pivotal Game 5—but their biggest strength is suddenly under scrutiny.
Injuries to key guards combined with inconsistent play from their stars have thinned OKC’s depth, opening the door for San Antonio’s defense to capitalize.
My Spurs vs. Thunder predictions have this one shaping up much tighter than the last few games, and my NBA picks are grabbing the points with the visiting Spurs on Tuesday, May 26.
- UPDATE: Added prediction for who will win & +850 SGP.
Spurs vs Thunder Game 5 prediction tonight
Who will win Spurs vs Thunder Game 5?
Spurs: Depending on the injury status of OKC’s backcourt – Jalen Williams and Ajay Mitchell are questionable – this could be San Antonio’s game to steal on the road. Without those guards, the Thunder’s offense is disjointed with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander stuck between being a facilitator and scorer.
Oklahoma City will shoot better at home, but San Antonio is doing a great job neutralizing OKC’s other threats. I see this one being closer than oddsmakers expect and the Spurs have a shot at winning outright.
Spurs vs Thunder best bet: Spurs +5.5 (-110)
Injuries to Jalen Williams and Ajay Mitchell have thrown a wrench in the Oklahoma City Thunder’s offense.
.@ShamsCharania provides an injury update on the Thunder's Jalen Williams and Ajay Mitchell 🏀 pic.twitter.com/71ACPWzxc4
— NBA on ESPN (@ESPNNBA) May 25, 2026
Without those guards, OKC lacks reliable ball handlers. That forces Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to play true point guard rather than off the ball, where he’s most dangerous.
The San Antonio Spurs are keeping SGA guessing with pressure but not fully committing to double teams. Gilgeous-Alexander hasn’t been able to get into a rhythm, shooting a collective 12-for-32 the past two games.
The rest of the Thunder’s starters aren’t picking up the slack. Meanwhile, the Spurs are getting great contributions from their starting five.
COVERS INTEL: San Antonio’s starting five has outscored Oklahoma City’s starters by an average of 31.7 points in the WCF. The Thunder’s bench posted a collective -9.4 in Game 4 after averaging a league-high +6.3 in the postseason.
Spurs vs Thunder Game 5 same-game parlay
Stephon Castle is back in his regular spot with the Spurs’ point guards healthy. Castle has been active on the glass in this series, pulling down five or more boards in each of the first three games.
He had three rebounds on 12 rebounding chances in Game 4, and projections sit as high as six rebounds in OKC on Tuesday.
Victor Wembanyama was much more aggressive on offense in Game 4, specifically from outside. He knocked down 3 of 7 attempts from distance and has made at least two triples in three of the first four games.
San Antonio is being conservative with Wemby on defense — limiting his amount of running around on close outs — in order to save his legs on the offensive end.
Game script says the Spurs are fighting from behind, needing big shots from their big man. Forecasts call for two 3-point makes from Wembanyama.
Spurs vs Thunder SGP
- Spurs +5.5
- Stephon Castle Over 4.5 rebounds
- Victor Wembanyama Over 1.5 threes
Our "from downtown" SGP: Spur of the moment
If San Antonio is going to steal another game in OKC, Wembanyama will be at the heart of that upset. He was much quieter on the boards the past two contests but with the Spurs’ defensive schemes trying to keep him in the paint, he’ll be in prime position for blocks and rebounds in Game 5.
Spurs vs Thunder SGP
- Spurs Moneyline
- Victor Wembanyama Over 3.5 blocks
- Victor Wembanyama Over 13.5 rebounds
- Victor Wembanyama Over 1.5 Threes
Spurs vs Thunder odds for Game 5 tonight
- Spread: Spurs +5.5 | Thunder -5.5
- Moneyline: Spurs +165 | Thunder -200
- Over/Under: Over 216 | Under 216
Spurs vs Thunder betting trend to know
The Spurs are 10-7 SU and 11-6 ATS as road underdogs on the year. Find more NBA betting trends for Spurs vs. Thunder.
How to watch Spurs vs Thunder Game 5
| Location | Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, OK |
| Date | Tuesday, May 26, 2026 |
| Tip-off | 8:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | NBC/Peacock |
Spurs vs Thunder latest injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
