With the New York Yankees ahead 1-0 in this Game 2 scenario against the Boston Red Sox, the Yankees turn to Max Fried against Sonny Gray as the Red Sox hope to fight off elimination.
Both pitchers are good at keeping the ball on the ground, so my Red Sox vs. Yankees predictions and MLB picks expect runs to be hard to come by when the first pitch is thrown at 8 p.m. ET on Wednesday, Sept. 30.
TOP PICK
Red Sox vs Yankees prediction: Under 6.5
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
I'm playing the Under to 55% in what I expect to be a closely contested matchup
There's no fluff about what Sonny Gray has done this season. His sinker and breaking balls get hitters to chase at a 33% rate (77th percentile), and he gets grounders on 46% of balls in play.
That is a useful combination against a New York Yankees lineup that has struck out in over 30% of its plate appearances over the past week, and ranks near the top of the sport in various whiff rates over the second half of the year.
Max Fried has a similar ground-ball strength without allowing nearly as much damaging contact. His 2.4% barrel rate allowed ranks in the 99th percentile. He does not miss bats at an elite rate, so the Boston Red Sox can put runners on base, but they've produced just a .279 xwOBA and 5.3% barrel rate over the past week.
Fried's soft-contact induction has simply been absurd, and it should carry him here.
COVERS INTEL:Watch Fried’s cutter against Willson Contreras and Trevor Story with men on: he throws it 28% of the time to right-handed hitters, and is credited with just a 219 xSLG across 382 pitches when using it.
Red Sox vs Yankees combo
Boston has struck out in 26% of its plate appearances over the past month. and I'm inclined to believe that trend continues. I'll take Max Fried to exceed his strikeout number in my combo. Six strikeouts would help him carry the low-scoring case through the middle innings.
I paired that with my top pick and Ben Rice to get a hit.
It's hard to do any type of combo without utilizing Rice in it after what we saw last night. His .378 xwOBA over the last month is a good indicator as to how well he's going at the moment, and I like the way he matches up against Gray.
Red Sox vs Yankees combo
- Max Fried Over 5.5 strikeouts
- Ben Rice Over 0.5 hits
- Under 6.5
Red Sox vs Yankees home run prediction: Ben Rice
Why not? After two dingers last night, I'm backing Rice to stay hot.
Gray’s ability to keep the ball on the ground is the strongest argument against any ball leaving the park against him. However, Rice is the exception worth taking a chance on.
He owns a 14.3% barrel rate and .511 xSLG, giving him the best power profile in New York’s likely lineup with Aaron Judge out.
Gray has allowed a .385 xSLG despite his excellent ERA, so hitters who lift the ball can still hurt him. Rice has also barreled 23.1% of his batted balls over the past week.
- Top picks: 55-49, +11.25 units
- Combos: 60-42, +20.30 units
Red Sox vs Yankees weather
Clear skies and comfortable temperatures, so weather should not have an impact on this game
Red Sox vs Yankees odds
- Moneyline: Red Sox 38% | Yankees 62%
- Run line: Red Sox +1.5 | Yankees -1.5
- Over/Under: Over 6.5 | Under 6.5
Red Sox vs Yankees trend
The Red Sox have hit the team total Under in 15 of their last 18 games (+11.90 Units / 55% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Red Sox vs. Yankees.
How to watch Red Sox vs Yankees and game info
| Location | Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY |
| Date | Wednesday, Sept. 30, 2026 |
| First pitch | 8 p.m. ET |
| TV | NBC |
| Red Sox starting pitcher | Sonny Gray (18-5, 2.72 ERA) |
| Yankees starting pitcher | Max Fried (5-5, 2.80 ERA) |
Red Sox vs Yankees latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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