The Wild Card Series continue as four teams push to advance to the next round of the MLB playoffs.
Our MLB expert picks offer a variety of angles for today's slate, as we expect the Philadelphia Phillies and Houston Astros to pull even in their respective series, while runs will come early and often in the matinee.
Read on for more MLB picks on Wednesday, Sept. 30.
MLB expert picks for today
| Pick | Probability |
|---|---|
 Josh Inglis: PHI/ATL YRFI |
45% |
 Jon Metler: PHI ML |
52% |
 Neil Parker: HOU ML |
59% |
 Joe Osborne: BOS/NYY o6.5 |
53% |
Probabilities courtesy of Polymarket. For help understanding Polymarket probabilities, see our odds calculator.
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Josh Inglis' expert pick: Phillies vs. Braves - Run in the first inning - Yes
Price: 45¢ at Polymarket
This is the best projected Over on the slate, with a near 17% projected ROI on the flat total of 7, which isn't available on Polymarket, and 8.76 runs projected. I'm pivoting and hitting the run in the first inning at plus money.
Playoff baseball is a little different than Games 1 through 162. Batters are amped up and can handle velocity much better, while the top of the order becomes even more dangerous.
Yesterday, three of the four games saw a run in the first inning, with eight total runs scored in the first two innings.
Tyler Mahle is coming off his worst second-half start, while Cristopher Sanchez has given up 18 runs over his last five outings and 31-plus innings, along with more than a hit per inning. I like runs in this game, and I like them to come early.
I'd buy this to 50%.
For more on this matinee, Chris Hatfield has his full Phillies vs. Braves predictions ready.
- Time: 2 p.m. ET
- How to watch: NBC
Jon Metler's expert pick: Phillies moneyline
Price: 52¢ at Polymarket
I'll hit the button on the Philadelphia Phillies at 52% on Polymarket with their backs against the wall and their ace, Sanchez, on the mound.
I price the Phillies closer to a 55% favorite, giving us an edge at the current market price.
The biggest factor for me is that this is a day game at Truist Park, where the ball can carry, with sunny skies and temperatures expected to reach the high 80s. Sanchez is arguably the best ground-ball pitcher in MLB, which helps him neutralize the ballpark factors created by the conditions.
Mahle, on the other hand, is a fly-ball pitcher whose fastball-splitter combination doesn't profile well against the left-handed power bats of Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber.
- Time: 2 p.m. ET
- How to watch: NBC
Neil Parker's expert pick: Astros moneyline
Price: 59¢ at Polymarket
Houston Astros starter Hunter Brown has sizzled down the stretch with an elite 35.3% strikeout rate, 2.32 xERA and 2.20 xFIP in his last six starts, while Chicago White Sox righty Sean Burke has posted an unflattering 4.57 xERA and 5.41 xFIP through his final seven starts.
Burke's statistical dip aligns with him cruising to a career-high 172 1/3 innings this year, and his fastball pitch value dropped from 10.1 through his first 20 starts to -1.0 over the past seven.
So, with the Astros also finishing the regular season first in ISO and sixth in wRC+ against righties, Burke will struggle navigating the Houston lineup in Game 2.
For more, check out Todd Cordell's full White Sox vs. Astros predictions.
- Time: 5 p.m. ET
- How to watch: Peacock
Joe Osborne's expert pick: Red Sox vs Yankees Over 6.5
Price: 53¢ at Polymarket
Max Fried owns a career 5.31 postseason ERA, allowing at least four earned runs in seven separate appearances, including getting rocked for seven earned runs against Toronto last October.
With a total of 6.5, we don’t need him to get obliterated. The New York Yankees scored nine runs yesterday, and another offensive explosion isn’t necessary either. Just a little bit of noise could get us there.
Sonny Gray doesn’t present many red flags, but the Boston Red Sox needed five bullpen arms yesterday. That leaves them with fewer fresh options if he exits early, adding another reason to back the Over.
Chris Hatfield has more analysis with his Red Sox vs. Yankees predictions.
- Time: 8 p.m. ET
- How to watch: NBC
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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