It's Day 2 of the MLB playoffs, and after eight dingers in yesterday's postseason opener, the long balls aren't drying up as October approaches, and MLB player props are still popping on the projections.
Miguel Vargas could catch up to Hunter Brown's velocity, and Ben Rice has to be on the card after last night and a minimal price reduction for his homer.
These are my favorite MLB home run picks for Wednesday, Sept. 30.
MLB home run props for today
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Miguel Vargas
Ben Rice
Home run prediction: Miguel Vargas
I have one goal for predicting postseason dingers: fade higher-velocity pitching, and Hunter Brown has the highest average fastball speed among today's starters. The reasoning is that batters get amped up for the playoffs and hit higher velocity for more damage. It's why we usually see slower, craftier pitchers succeed in the playoffs.
Miguel Vargas has the second-best expected value at this price today, according to the projections, which have him at a fair price of 5.5x, or 18%. He hit 33 homers this year and has seen Brown eight times over his career, with three hits and a walk.
The Astros used a bullpen day yesterday, and Brown will get a long leash, even if he's off. All seven of Houston's best bullpen arms threw yesterday, so even if Vargas has to see the high-leverage arms late in this game, that's in his favor.
For more on this game, check out Todd Cordell's White Sox vs Astros predictions.
- Time: 5 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Peacock
Home run prediction: Ben Rice
Ben Rice launched two homers yesterday in a statement win over the Red Sox. Today, he faces Sonny Gray, who has given up two homers to Rice in seven career at-bats. The fair price on Rice has to be at least 4.3x, or 23%.
The wind is blowing out at Yankee Stadium tonight, and as good as Gray has been this year, he has still given up 62 homers over the last three seasons. He also gave up two homers and eight hits over 12 outs in his last postseason start back in 2023 with the Twins.
There is a chance that Rice doesn't see many pitches today, but we can capitalize on that too, with his Over 0.5 walks also plus money at 2.3x. This is still a great price on a guy who has launched 43 homers in 155 games.
Chris Hatfield has more analysis in the Red Sox vs Yankees predictions.
- Time: 8 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: NBC
- HR picks: 41-158, -16.2 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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