It's Day 2 of the MLB playoffs, and after eight dingers in yesterday's postseason opener, the long balls aren't drying up as October approaches, and MLB player props are still popping on the projections.
Fernando Tatis Jr. headlines my MLB home run picks for Wednesday, Sept. 30. The San Diego Padres slugger has been one of baseball's hottest hitters for months and went deep in Game 1 last night. Nando strikes again tonight.
- UPDATE: Added third home run and combo play.
MLB home run props for today
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| Player to hit a HR | Chance |
|---|---|
 Miguel Vargas |
16% |
 Ben Rice |
21% |
 Fernando Tatis Jr. |
21% |
| 💲Today's HR parlay | 130x |
Home run prediction: Miguel Vargas
I have one goal for predicting postseason dingers: fade higher-velocity pitching, and Hunter Brown has the highest average fastball speed among today's starters. The reasoning is that batters get amped up for the playoffs and hit higher velocity for more damage. It's why we usually see slower, craftier pitchers succeed in the playoffs.
Miguel Vargas has the second-best expected value at this price today, according to the projections, which have him at a fair price of 5.5x, or 18%. He hit 33 homers this year and has seen Brown eight times over his career, with three hits and a walk.
The Astros used a bullpen day yesterday, and Brown will get a long leash, even if he's off. All seven of Houston's best bullpen arms threw yesterday, so even if Vargas has to see the high-leverage arms late in this game, that's in his favor.
For more on this game, check out Todd Cordell's White Sox vs Astros predictions.
- Time: 5 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Peacock
Home run prediction: Ben Rice
Ben Rice launched two homers yesterday in a statement win over the Red Sox. Today, he faces Sonny Gray, who has given up two homers to Rice in seven career at-bats. The fair price on Rice has to be at least 4.3x, or 23%.
The wind is blowing out at Yankee Stadium tonight, and as good as Gray has been this year, he has still given up 62 homers over the last three seasons. He also gave up two homers and eight hits over 12 outs in his last postseason start back in 2023 with the Twins.
There is a chance that Rice doesn't see many pitches today, but we can capitalize on that too, with his Over 0.5 walks also plus money at 2.3x. This is still a great price on a guy who has launched 43 homers in 155 games.
Chris Hatfield has more analysis in the Red Sox vs Yankees predictions.
- Time: 8 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: NBC
Home run prediction: Fernando Tatis Jr.
I have this fair around 23.5%. Fernando Tatis Jr. was one of three San Diego Padres who went deep yesterday, and not many hitters were better in the second half than Tatis. The right-handed hitter launched 21 homers after the All-Star break, and only three other batters had a better slugging rate than the Padres outfielder.
He'll face Kevin Gausman, who can give up a lot of fly balls if that splitter isn't diving. Tatis has already taken him deep twice in 23 at-bats, where he owns a 1.027 OPS against the Chicago Cubs starter.
I'm not getting cute and adding big names to today's home run card.
Neil Parker gives a full rundown of this game in his Cubs vs. Padres predictions.
- Time: 10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Peacock
- HR picks: 41-158, -16.2 units
Best home run combo for September 30
| Miguel Vargas |
Trade Now 130x |
| Ben Rice |
|
| Fernando Tatis Jr. |
Want more baseball parlays? Check out our MLB parlay picks page!
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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