Four Wild Card games are on the postseason schedule today, and I'm diving into my top MLB moneyline picks for each contest.
Read it all in my MLB picks for Wednesday, Sept. 30.
MLB moneyline picks for September 30
For help understanding Polymarket probabilities, see our odds calculator.
Phillies
Braves
White Sox
Astros
Red Sox
Yankees
Cubs
PadresPrices courtesy of Polymarket as of Sept. 30.
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Expert MLB moneyline picks for September 30
Phillies vs Braves: Phillies
Phillies win probability: 45%
Play up to 50%.
The Phillies are looking to avoid elimination, and Cristopher Sanchez is the perfect man to be on the mound. The left-hander finished the regular season with a respectable 3.49 FIP over his final six outings, and he posted a 2.25 ERA in two starts against the Braves in 2026.
Tyler Mahle counters for the hosts, and he's been shaky at times, compiling a 4.46 FIP in his previous two appearances while allowing 1.64 HR/9.
I expect both starters to hold their own, but Sanchez gives Philly a slight edge.
For more, check out Chris Hatfield's complete Phillies vs. Braves predictions.
White Sox vs Astros: Astros
Astros win probability: 53%
Play up to 58%.
This could be a pitcher's duel in Houston, but I like the Astros to respond. Hunter Brown has been unhittable, registering a 1.73 FIP over his last three starts with no homers allowed and an impressive 64.5% ground-ball rate. He also surrendered just two earned runs across 13 innings vs. Chicago this season.
Sean Burke is in decent form as well, but he has been more vulnerable recently. While the 3.33 xERA recently looks solid, Burke has allowed a 40.9% hard-hit rate and a 9.1% barrel rate in the last two weeks.
Houston will even up this series and force Game 3.
Todd Cordell has more thoughts on this matchup in the full White Sox vs Astros predictions.
Red Sox vs Yankees: Yankees
Yankees win probability: 57%
Play up to 60%.
It's hard for me to ignore Max Fried's recent form and his dominance against the Red Sox. The left-hander owns a 2.13 xERA over his last two starts and has surrendered just one earned run in 11 2/3 innings vs. Boston in 2026.
Sonny Gray counters for the Red Sox, and he hasn't been at his best lately. The veteran has a 4.67 xERA in his last four outings and is coming up against a Yankees offense that just exploded for nine runs.
Fried will silence Boston, and New York will give its starter some run support.
Cubs vs Padres: Cubs
Cubs win probability: 51%
Play up to 55%.
The Padres go with Nick Pivetta tonight as they look to advance, but his underlying numbers are concerning. Although the right-hander has limited runs lately, he's posted a 43.4% hard-hit rate and 15.1% barrel rate in his last 18 2/3 innings.
That's concerning against a Cubs offense poised to respond on the road, where they collected a 107 wRC+ this season. Kevin Gausman should also provide stability. He sports a 3.37 FIP in his previous two outings with solid command and a 66.7% ground-ball rate.
Take Chicago.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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