The Cleveland Guardians will look to keep the good times rolling in their home bout with the slumping Tampa Bay Rays.
Our top Rays vs. Guardians predictions are calling for Cleveland to extend its winning streak to four games tonight.
In addition to taking a stab on the straight moneyline, my MLB picks also drum up an SGP for tonight's action.
Rays vs Guardians prediction
My best bet
Guardians moneyline (-140 at betway)
My analysis
Cleveland Guardians starter Gavin Williams was roughed up last time out by the Los Angeles Dodgers and didn’t even pitch his way out of the opening frame. Thankfully, the Tampa Bay Rays are in a completely different class and sport a 29th-ranked .290 wOBA against right-handed pitchers this season.
This is a bounce-back spot for Williams, and he also has a splash of statistical correction coming with his 5.25 ERA noticeably higher than his 4.13 xFIP, and his .303 BABIP is likely to lower while his 64% strand rate should climb. The 25-year-old righty posted respective 3.29, 4.53, .270, and 78.3% marks across his 16 starts last season, so while his surface numbers have been worse in 2024, there’s a case he’s also pitched better.
Tampa starter Ryan Pepiot has been just the opposite with his 3.66 ERA below his 4.17 xFIP and has negative regression ahead of his .255 BABIP and 74.8% strand rate. A date with the rolling Guardians isn’t ideal, either. Cleveland ranks fifth with a .333 wOBA and .333 on-base percentage during its highlighted 9-4 stretch.
The final piece of the puzzle is the Cleveland bullpen sporting the lowest ERA (2.74) in baseball and second-lowest xFIP (3.66). I'm happy to back the better top-to-bottom team on the moneyline.
Rays vs Guardians same-game parlay (SGP)
Guardians moneyline
Gavin Williams to record the win
Ryan Pepiot Over 1.5 walks allowed
A quick peek at Williams’ game log showcases seven consecutive starts against teams positioned to play in the postseason, and again, Tampa Bay isn’t in the same class. As noted, I expect a bounce-back showing against a softer opponent and Williams completing five frames to position himself for the win.
Pepiot has issued six free passes across his past two starts, and his command has been inconsistent all season with a 3.19 BB/9 and 8.6 BB%. He has two or more walks in half his 2024 starts, too.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Rays vs Guardians odds
Rays vs Guardians live odds
Rays vs Guardians opening odds
- Moneyline: Tampa Bay +120 | Cleveland -140
- Run line: Tampa Bay +1.5 (-185) | Cleveland -1.5 (+155)
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 (-115) | Under 7.5 (-105)
Rays vs Guardians moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- There has been a noticeable move to the Cleveland side of this moneyline, with Pinnacle opening Guardians -135 and adjusting to -145 as of Thursday morning.
- Cleveland also moved 10 points at bet365, and I don’t expect there to be buyback on the Rays unless there are additional moves to the Guardians side.
- While there has been back-and-forth action on this 7.5 total at Pinnacle and bet365, both shops are back at the opening 7.5 with the Over carrying the higher vig.
- It’s notable that Pinnacle quickly moved to an 8.0 total and it lasted throughout the night.
Rays vs Guardians trend
The Cleveland Guardians have hit the moneyline in 84 of their last 146 games (+12.47 Units / 7% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Rays vs. Guardians.
Rays vs Guardians game info
| Location: | Progressive Field, Cleveland, OH |
| Date: | Thursday, 9-12-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:15 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
| Rays starting pitcher: | Ryan Pepiot (8-6, 3.66 ERA) |
| Guardians starting pitcher: | Gavin Williams (3-8, 5.25 ERA) |
Rays vs Guardians latest injuries
Rays vs Guardians weather
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