We’ll be backing Casey Mize in my Padres vs. Diamondbacks predictions as the right-hander makes his San Diego debut tonight.
The San Diego Padres come into this one as narrow -126 favorites at Polymarket, a price that’s giving us some tremendous value with Mize putting together a quality year.
Let’s dive right into my MLB picks for Wednesday, Aug. 5.
Who will win Padres vs Diamondbacks tonight: Padres moneyline (-126)
There are no two ways about it — Casey Mize is in the middle of the best year of his career. The newest San Diego Padres starter has a career-best K rate (24%), walk rate (5.6%), hard-hit rate (36%), xERA (3.07), xBA (.252), and xwOBA (.273) this season, giving me all the confidence in the world he’ll add a ninth quality start to his belt tonight.
He looks good against this Arizona Diamondbacks team, too, limiting them to a .256 xBA across 39 plate appearances, which includes a combined 2-for-10 mark between Nolan Arenado, Ketel Marte, and Geraldo Perdomo.
On the other side is 23-year-old Mitch Bratt, who’s had a difficult time in the majors so far. Entering tonight with a 4.90 xERA, the No. 14 prospect owns just a 12.2 K rate across 20 ⅔ innings at the big-league level. I’m expecting a lot of barrels from the Padres — play this one all the way up to -145.
Don’t just take my word for it, either; our own Colby Marchio is on the Padres as well with his MLB predictions and moneyline picks today.
COVERS INTEL: The Padres' offense is clicking at the right time, scoring five or more runs in four of their last five games. They also feast on mediocre pitching, winning six straight games against a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
Padres vs Diamondbacks Over/Under pick: Under 8.5 (+105)
Yes, I’m riding Mize heavily, so you can understand why I’m on the Under tonight. And while Bratt has mostly been hit around this season, he did show some promise in his last start against Cleveland, going five innings and surrendering just one earned run.
The MLB trends are on our side on this one, too — the Under is 3-0-1 in the Diamondbacks’ last four home games, and it's also hit in four of the last five Padres’ road contests.
I’d price this play closer to -120, so we’re taking prime advantage of the line at Polymarket. Let’s sweep the board tonight.
Padres vs Diamondbacks weather
The Diamondbacks play at Chase Field, which features a retractable roof — meaning the weather won't have any impact on the playing conditions tonight.
Padres vs Diamondbacks odds
- Moneyline: Padres (-126) | Diamondbacks (+114)
- Run line: Padres -1.5 (+125) | Diamondbacks +1.5 (-150)
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-116) | Under 8.5 (+105)
Padres vs Diamondbacks trend
Don't overlook the quality from Mize, who hasn't allowed more than three runs in a given start since June 23rd. Find more MLB betting trends for Padres vs. Diamondbacks.
How to watch Padres vs Diamondbacks and game info
| Location | Chase Field, Phoenix, AZ |
| Date | Wednesday, August 5, 2026 |
| First pitch | 9:40 p.m. ET |
| TV | Padres.TV, Dbacks.TV |
| Padres starting pitcher | Casey Mize (4-6, 2.70 ERA) |
| Diamondbacks starting pitcher | Mitch Bratt (0-1, 5.23 ERA) |
Padres vs Diamondbacks latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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