A day filled with baseball is the perfect day, and I have MLB moneyline predictions for every game on today's slate.
Let's dive right into my latest MLB picks for Wednesday, Aug. 5.
MLB moneyline picks for August 5
| Matchup | Pick |
|---|---|
 Blue Jaysvs  Astros |
-174 |
 Dodgersvs  Cubs |
+113 |
 Giantsvs  Rangers |
+160 |
 Raysvs  Rockies |
-153 |
 Angelsvs  Orioles |
+113 |
 Athleticsvs  Reds |
+135 |
 Nationalsvs  Phillies |
+170 |
 Metsvs  Guardians |
-100 |
 Cardinalsvs  Yankees |
+144 |
 White Soxvs  Red Sox |
+122 |
 Marlinsvs  Braves |
+117 |
 Twinsvs  Royals |
-113 |
 Piratesvs  Brewers |
-122 |
 Padresvs  Diamondbacks |
-115 |
 Tigersvs  Mariners |
+141 |
Prices courtesy of Polymarket as of August 5.
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Expert MLB moneyline picks for August 5
Blue Jays vs Astros: Astros (-174)
Astros win probability: 64%
Jameson Taillon, the gift that keeps on giving. Welcome to the Blue Jays, my friend. Now I get to fade you.
Taillon owns a 5.92 ERA and 1.35 WHIP this season, and now he draws one of the hottest lineups in baseball. I don't expect this outing to go very smoothly.
On the other side, Hunter Brown has been sharp over his last three starts, posting a 3.12 ERA and 1.10 WHIP.
Dodgers vs Cubs: Dodgers (+113)
Dodgers win probability: 47%
I think we can all agree seeing the Dodgers get swept in back-to-back series would be marvelous. But when was the last time we were able to grab the Dodgers at plus money?
If the offense can force Shota Imanaga out early to get to that horrible bullpen, I think they can come out on top.
Plus, I will gladly take the Monstars of L.A. at plus money to avoid their sixth straight loss.
Giants vs Rangers: Giants (+160)
Giants win probability: 38%
I'm not paying -163 for a Rangers lineup that's gone cold over the last week.
On top of that, this could be Cody Bradford's first start since September 2024. That's enough for me to side with the underdog here.
Rays vs Rockies: Rays (-153)
Rays win probability: 60%
It'll be interesting to see how the Rockies respond after last night's blown lead, but I don't see them bouncing back with Tomoyuki Sugano on the mound.
The veteran right-hander owns a solid 2.95 ERA over his last three starts, but his underlying metrics tell a different story. He carries a 6.69 expected ERA during that stretch.
On the other side, All-Star righty Nick Martinez gets the ball for Tampa Bay. He's been outstanding on the road this season, posting a 2.01 ERA away from home.
Both offenses have been heating up, but only one of these starters is worth trusting.
Angels vs Orioles: Angels (+115)
Angels win probability: 46%
Two lifeless offenses, both sporting a sub-60 wRC+ over their last six games. Who do you take?
When in doubt, take the dog.
Luckily for us, Reid Detmers gets the ball for the Angels tonight, and he's been on a tear, posting a 1.65 ERA and 0.80 WHIP over his last three starts.
On the other side, Trevor Rogers has turned things around after a shaky first half, but I still think Detmers is the better arm in this matchup.
Athletics vs Reds: Athletics (+133)
Athletics win probability: 43%
When country singer Rhett Lowder is on the bump, I want to fade the daylights out of him. Especially when he's carrying an 8.10 ERA and 1.43 WHIP over his last three starts.
Meanwhile, Jacob Lopez has been dealing, posting a 1.84 ERA and 1.23 WHIP during that same span. Plus, he has held a 27% strikeout rate across his last five starts, and the Reds have a 29.5% strikeout rate over their last 12 games.
Nationals vs Phillies: Nationals (+170)
Nationals win probability: 37%
I'm not paying -174 to back Andrew Painter, who owns a 9.00 ERA, 5.54 xERA, and 1.69 WHIP over his last three starts.
On the other side, Jake Irvin has been the better pitcher lately, posting a 3.69 xERA and 0.86 WHIP over his last three outings.
The Phillies' offense has been solid over its last six games, but the Nationals are always capable of erupting at any moment.
Don't lay the juice. Take the dog.
Mets vs Guardians: Mets (+100)
Mets win probability: 50%
Christian Scott has been far too good over his last five starts for me to even consider backing Tanner Bibee.
The Mets right-hander owns a 2.59 ERA, 2.28 xERA, and 1.07 WHIP during that span. Bibee has been solid himself, but he still carries a 4.20 ERA and 1.27 WHIP over his last five outings.
Neither offense has been playing well lately, but the Mets have been generating far more hard contact than the Guardians, which makes me believe they're due to break out.
Across their last 21 games, New York owns a 41.4% hard-hit rate.
Cardinals vs Yankees: Cardinals (+144)
Cardinals win probability: 41%
Will Warren being a -147 favorite is wild to me.
The Yankees RHP owns a 6.05 ERA, 5.70 xERA, and 1.50 WHIP over his last five outings. During that stretch, he's also allowed nearly a 57% hard hit rate to opposing hitters.
The Cardinals counter with Andre Pallante, who owns a 2.66 road ERA this season while limiting hard contact.
St. Louis has also been swinging the bat much better than New York over the last week, and at +144, I have to back the Cardinals against Warren.
White Sox vs Red Sox: White Sox (+122)
White Sox win probability: 45%
My Sonny Gray AL Cy Young ticket has officially been shredded, and I want no part of backing the Red Sox after they hung 14 runs on the board last night.
Instead, I'll be backing Sean Burke and the Chicago White Sox. Chicago's offense has cooled off a bit, but I expect Boston to come back down to earth after last night's explosion.
Burke has been absolutely nails over his last five outings, posting a 1.14 ERA, 2.20 xERA, and 0.76 WHIP.
Marlins vs Braves: Marlins (+117)
Marlins win probability: 46%
I think this is a fantastic spot for the Marlins with Eury Pérez on the mound tonight. Over his last five starts, he's posted a 1.69 ERA and 0.84 WHIP.
Miami's offense is also starting to turn the corner, cutting down on the strikeouts while posting a walk rate of nearly 9% over its last six games.
On the other side, Bryce Elder owns a 5.50 xERA over his last five starts, and I think he gets exposed tonight. He's also allowed a 50% hard-hit rate over his last three outings.
Twins vs Royals: Royals (-113)
Royals win probability: 48%
Welcome to the Twins, Mr. Dean Kremer. Now we fade you in your debut.
The newly acquired right-hander has been horrendous lately, posting a 10.29 ERA and 1.93 WHIP. On the other side, southpaw Noah Cameron has taken a step forward, recording a 3.15 ERA, 2.91 xERA, and 0.95 WHIP over his last three starts.
Kansas City's offense has also been swinging the bat well over its last six games, while the Twins have gone ice cold, posting an 82 wRC+, .287 wOBA, and .651 OPS.
Pirates vs Brewers: Brewers (-122)
Brewers win probability: 55%
When was the last time Paul Skenes got run support?
Give me the Brew Crew here! Especially with Kyle Harrison's underlying metrics saying he should be a lot better than he has been. In his last five starts, the left-hander has a 3.75 ERA, but a 2.16 xERA and 0.88 WHIP.
Neither offense has been impressive, but the Brewers are easily the far more complete team, and at -122, I will be happy to pay the juice.
Padres vs Diamondbacks: Padres (-115)
Padres win probability: 54%
At the time of this writeup, the Padres have yet to announce a starting pitcher. That doesn't concern me when the Diamondbacks are sending Mitch Bratt to the mound.
Bratt owns a 5.23 ERA and 1.84 WHIP this season, while Arizona's offense has gone cold, producing minimal hard contact and a .679 OPS over its last six games.
Meanwhile, San Diego has posted a 113 wRC+, .328 wOBA, and a 41.8% hard hit rate over the last week.
At just -115, I'll happily fade another Diamondbacks starter.
Tigers vs Mariners: Tigers (+141)
Tigers win probability: 42%
It's Tigers or nothing for me. This team is way too hot to fade right now, and at +141 against Bryan Woo, who's been struggling, give me the dog.
For those unaware, the Tigers have posted a 147 wRC+, .379 wOBA, and .875 OPS over their last 12 games. On the mound, Ty Madden has been on a tear this season, recording a 2.40 ERA and 1.03 WHIP.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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