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What Is An MLB Computer Pick?
MLB picks are bet suggestions based on our computer's assessment of the game. Tons of betting data goes into a computer pick, including pitching matchups, injury reports, analytics, and even recent betting trends.
MLB Picks
Get free expert and computer MLB picks for every game on Sept. 20, 2026.
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Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.98 |
-157 
|
o7.5 -105 
|
-1.5 +115 
|
|
3.42 |
+140
|
u7.5 -105 
|
+1.5 -125 
|
Philadelphia
- Over is 3-0-1 in Sanchezs last 4 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Phillies are 9-1 in Sanchezs last 10 starts with 4 days of rest.
- Phillies are 6-1 in Sanchezs last 7 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
- Over is 5-1 in Phillies last 6 games as a road underdog.
NY Mets
- Mets are 5-0 in their last 5 home games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Under is 2-0-2 in Mets last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Mets are 8-1 in their last 9 vs. National League East.
- Over is 7-1 in Mets last 8 games as an underdog.
Top Projection
Bryce Harper o0.5 Total RBIs (+179)
o0.5+179
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.85 |
+100
|
o8.5 -105 
|
-1.5 +165
|
|
5.05 |
-110
|
u8.5 -113
|
+1.5 -190
|
Kansas City
- Under is 7-0-1 in Royals last 8 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 4-0 in Royals last 4 during game 3 of a series.
- Under is 4-0 in Royals last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Royals are 5-1 in Wachas last 6 starts vs. National League Central.
Pittsburgh
- Pirates are 6-0 in their last 6 during game 3 of a series.
- Under is 4-0-1 in Bachars last 5 starts on grass.
- Over is 4-0 in Pirates last 4 overall.
- Over is 4-0 in Pirates last 4 home games.
Top Projection
Brandon Lowe o0.5 Total RBIs (+191)
o0.5+191
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.03 |
+125
|
o7.5 -118 
|
+1.5 -170
|
|
4.04 |
-134
|
u8.0 -115
|
-1.5 +150
|
Boston
- Under is 5-0 in Red Sox last 5 vs. American League East.
- Red Sox are 5-0 in their last 5 games as a road favorite.
- Under is 7-0 in Red Sox last 7 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 6-0 in Red Sox last 6 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Tampa Bay
- Under is 4-0 in Rays last 4 vs. American League East.
- Under is 4-0 in Rays last 4 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 4-0 in Jaxs last 4 starts when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Rays are 4-0 in their last 4 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.46 |
+203
|
o6.5 -140
|
+1.5 -112
|
|
4.58 |
-230
|
u7.5 -135
|
-1.5 +100
|
Athletics
- Over is 3-0-2 in Perkins' last 5 starts as a favorite.
- Over is 3-0-1 in last 4 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
- Over is 8-1 in last 9 during game 3 of a series.
- Under is 4-1-1 in last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
Cleveland
- Over is 5-0-1 in Guardians last 6 overall.
- Guardians are 6-0 in their last 6 vs. American League West.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Guardians last 5 home games.
- Over is 5-0-1 in Guardians last 6 on grass.
Top Projection
Shea Langeliers o0.5 Total RBIs (+260)
o0.5+260
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5.94 |
-154
|
o9.5 -110
|
-1.5 +102
|
|
4.78 |
+135
|
u10.0 -122
|
+1.5 -120
|
Chi. Cubs
- Over is 5-0-1 in Cubs last 6 during game 3 of a series.
- Over is 6-1 in Cubs last 7 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 4-1-1 in Cubs last 6 overall.
- Over is 5-1 in Cubs last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
Cincinnati
- Reds are 6-0 in their last 6 games as a home favorite.
- Over is 5-0 in Lowders last 5 starts with 4 days of rest.
- Reds are 6-1 in their last 7 during game 3 of a series.
- Over is 6-1 in Lowders last 7 starts when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.35 |
+126
|
o8.0 -114
|
+1.5 -170
|
|
4.77 |
-139
|
u8.5 -122
|
-1.5 +150
|
Atlanta
- Over is 7-0-1 in Braves last 8 overall.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Braves last 5 road games.
- Over is 7-0-1 in Braves last 8 on grass.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Braves last 5 vs. American League West.
Houston
- Astros are 8-1 in Browns last 9 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 7-1 in Astros last 8 games as a favorite.
- Under is 7-1 in Astros last 8 games as a home favorite.
- Under is 6-1 in Browns last 7 starts vs. National League East.
Top Projection
Ronald Acuna Jr. o0.5 Total RBIs (+215)
o0.5+215
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.78 |
+104
|
o8.0 -115
|
+1.5 -200
|
|
4.78 |
-115 
|
u8.5 -115
|
-1.5 +163
|
Detroit
- Over is 6-0 in Tigers last 6 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 4-0 in Meltons last 4 starts as a road favorite.
- Tigers are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a favorite.
- Under is 4-0 in Meltons last 4 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Chi. White Sox
- Over is 4-0 in White Sox last 4 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 6-1 in Martins last 7 starts as a home underdog.
- White Sox are 10-1 in Martins last 11 starts as a home underdog.
- White Sox are 6-1 in their last 7 during game 4 of a series.
Top Projection
Hao-Yu Lee o0.5 Total RBIs (+215)
o0.5+225
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.63 |
+120
|
o8.5 -115
|
+1.5 -165
|
|
4.94 |
-130
|
u8.5 +105
|
-1.5 +152
|
Washington
- Nationals are 7-0 in their last 7 games as a road favorite.
- Nationals are 6-0 in their last 6 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 4-0 in Nationals last 4 road games.
- Over is 4-0 in Nationals last 4 vs. a team with a losing record.
St. Louis
- Over is 5-0-1 in Cardinals last 6 vs. National League East.
- Under is 5-0 in Mathews' last 5 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 4-0 in Cardinals last 4 home games.
- Under is 4-0 in Mathews' last 4 starts on grass.
Top Projection
Andres Chaparro u1.5 Total Bases (-190)
u1.5-190
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.45 |
+145
|
o7.5 +105
|
+1.5 -157
|
|
4.31 |
-152
|
u7.5 -113
|
-1.5 +138
|
Toronto
- Over is 7-1 in Blue Jays last 8 overall.
- Over is 5-1 in Blue Jays last 6 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 4-1 in Blue Jays last 5 road games.
- Under is 4-1 in Blue Jays last 5 vs. American League West.
Texas
- Over is 9-0 in Rangers last 9 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 5-0-1 in Rangers last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 6-0 in Rangers last 6 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 5-0 in deGroms last 5 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Top Projection
George Springer o0.5 Total RBIs (+232)
o0.5+232
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
6.61 |
-155
|
o10.5 -119
|
-1.5 -105
|
|
5.02 |
+141
|
u11.0 -120
|
+1.5 -110
|
Seattle
- Over is 4-0-1 in Mariners last 5 during game 3 of a series.
- Under is 4-0 in Mariners last 4 vs. National League West.
- Under is 4-0 in Mariners last 4 interleague games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Mariners are 4-0 in their last 4 interleague games vs. a right-handed starter.
Colorado
- Over is 6-0-1 in Rockies last 7 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 4-0-2 in Rockies last 6 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Rockies last 5 games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Under is 5-0 in Suganos last 5 interleague starts.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.82 |
-120
|
o8.0 -110
|
+1.5 -250
|
|
4.31 |
+105
|
u8.5 -125
|
-1.5 +200
|
Minnesota
- Over is 5-0 in Twins last 5 games as an underdog.
- Over is 6-1 in Twins last 7 overall.
- Over is 6-1 in Twins last 7 games as a road underdog.
- Over is 6-1 in Twins last 7 on grass.
LA Angels
- Under is 6-0 in Johnsons last 6 starts as a home underdog.
- Under is 5-0 in Johnsons last 5 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 6-0 in Johnsons last 6 home starts.
- Under is 4-0 in Johnsons last 4 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.51 |
+121
|
o7.5 -132
|
+1.5 -178
|
|
4.60 |
-138
|
u8.5 -125
|
-1.5 +155
|
Miami
- Over is 6-0-1 in Marlins last 7 games as a favorite.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Marlins last 4 games as a road favorite.
- Marlins are 4-1 in their last 5 overall.
- Over is 4-0 in Alcantaras last 4 starts on grass.
San Diego
- Padres are 5-0 in their last 5 vs. National League East.
- Over is 5-0-1 in Padres last 6 during game 3 of a series.
- Padres are 5-0 in their last 5 games as a home underdog.
- Over is 8-0 in Padres last 8 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Top Projection
Heriberto Hernandez o0.5 Total RBIs (+215)
o0.5+215
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.23 |
+100
|
o8.0 -125
|
+1.5 -220
|
|
4.68 |
-113
|
u8.5 -113
|
-1.5 +175
|
NY Yankees
- Over is 5-0-1 in Yankees last 6 road games.
- Yankees are 5-0 in Warrens last 5 starts as a road favorite.
- Over is 5-0-1 in Yankees last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Yankees are 6-0 in their last 6 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Arizona
- Over is 5-0 in Diamondbacks last 5 vs. American League East.
- Diamondbacks are 4-0 in their last 4 interleague games as an underdog.
- Diamondbacks are 4-0 in their last 4 games as an underdog.
- Over is 4-0 in Diamondbacks last 4 interleague home games vs. a team with a winning record.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.69 |
+230
|
o8.0 -115
|
+2.0 -126
|
|
5.21 |
-265
|
u8.5 -120
|
-2.0 -103
|
San Francisco
- Over is 4-0 in Giants last 4 road games.
- Over is 4-0 in Giants last 4 games as a favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in Giants last 4 games as a road underdog.
- Over is 4-0 in Giants last 4 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
LA Dodgers
- Dodgers are 5-0 in their last 5 home games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Over is 2-0-2 in Dodgers last 4 overall.
- Over is 2-0-2 in Dodgers last 4 games as a favorite.
- Over is 2-0-2 in Dodgers last 4 on grass.
Top Projection
Jonah Cox o0.5 Total RBIs (+305)
o0.5+330
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5.07 |
-200
|
o7.0 -150
|
-1.5 -115
|
|
3.65 |
+180
|
u7.5 -105
|
+1.5 +100
|
Milwaukee
- Over is 4-0-1 in Brewers last 5 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Brewers are 5-0 in their last 5 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Brewers are 5-0 in Misiorowskis last 5 starts when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 5-0 in Brewers last 5 interleague road games vs. a right-handed starter.
Baltimore
- Orioles are 4-0 in their last 4 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Orioles are 4-0 in Youngs last 4 starts when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Orioles are 4-0 in Youngs last 4 interleague starts.
- Orioles are 5-1 in Youngs last 6 starts during game 3 of a series.
Top Projection
Colton Cowser o0.5 Total RBIs (+411)
o0.5+411
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
4.33 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
4.08 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Toronto
- Over is 5-0 in Blue Jays last 5 vs. American League East.
- Over is 5-0 in Blue Jays last 5 during game 1 of a series.
- Under is 4-0 in Yesavages last 4 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
- Over is 7-1 in Blue Jays last 8 overall.
Baltimore
- Under is 6-1 in Orioles last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
- Under is 6-1 in Orioles last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Orioles are 6-1 in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
- Orioles are 5-1 in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
3.99 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
4.31 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Washington
- Nationals are 7-0 in their last 7 games as a road favorite.
- Under is 6-0 in Nationals last 6 interleague games as an underdog.
- Nationals are 6-0 in their last 6 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 4-0 in Nationals last 4 road games.
Detroit
- Under is 6-0 in Tigers last 6 interleague games as an underdog.
- Tigers are 6-0 in their last 6 interleague games as a favorite.
- Over is 2-0-2 in Tigers last 4 home games.
- Tigers are 4-0 in their last 4 home games.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
4.81 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
4.19 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Minnesota
- Over is 5-0 in Twins last 5 games as an underdog.
- Over is 4-0 in Twins last 4 interleague road games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 7-1 in Twins last 8 interleague games as a favorite.
- Over is 6-1 in Twins last 7 overall.
San Francisco
- Over is 6-0-1 in Giants last 7 games a home underdog.
- Over is 5-0-1 in Giants last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
- Over is 4-0 in Giants last 4 home games.
- Over is 4-0 in Giants last 4 games as a favorite.
PHI
@
NYM
Sun, Sep 20 • 1:10 PM ET
Total Bases
Bryson Stott o1.5 Total Bases (+165)
Projection 1.47
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Bryson Stott in the 84th percentile when assessing his batting average ability.. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 10.4-mph in this match-up, the strongest of the day for bats.. Hitting from the opposite that Jonah Tong throws from, Bryson Stott will have the upper hand in today's matchup.. Bryson Stott hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.8% — 97th percentile) and is fortunate to face MLB's shallowest CF fences today.. The New York Mets infield defense profiles as the 5th-worst among every team today.
Total RBIs
Mark Vientos o0.5 Total RBIs (+252)
Projection 0.44
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
As it relates to his home run skill, Mark Vientos ranks in the 88th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Mark Vientos is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in this game.. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 10.4-mph in this match-up, the strongest of the day for bats.. Mark Vientos will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Cristopher Sanchez in today's game... and even better, Sanchez has a large platoon split.. Mark Vientos hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40.5% — 99th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the game's shallowest CF fences in today's game.
KC
@
PIT
Sun, Sep 20 • 1:35 PM ET
Moneyline
PIT (-120)
Phil Naessens
Betting Analyst
Kansas City's lineup is completely lost right now, hitting an MLB-worst .197 with a punchless 73 wRC+ over their last twelve games. Pittsburgh's pitching staff gets an easy target here, giving the home club a straightforward path to cash.
Total Bases
Konnor Griffin o1.5 Total Bases (+125)
Projection 1.77
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
When assessing his BABIP talent, Konnor Griffin is projected as the 3rd-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Konnor Griffin has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (60% of the time), but he is penciled in 1st in the batting order today.. High humidity has a small but significant connection with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast predicts the 4th-most humidity on the slate at 86%.. Home field advantage generally boosts hitter stats in all categories, and Konnor Griffin will hold that advantage today.. Placing in the 90th percentile, Konnor Griffin has posted a .350 BABIP this year.
BOS
@
TB
Sun, Sep 20 • 1:40 PM ET
Total RBIs
Adley Rutschman o0.5 Total RBIs (+221)
Projection 0.5
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Adley Rutschman in the 87th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive skill.. Adley Rutschman is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup.. The #1 park in baseball for boosting home runs to left-handed hitters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Tropicana Field.. The 5th-shallowest right field dimensions among all parks are found in Tropicana Field.. Adley Rutschman has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 90.7-mph average in the past week to his seasonal 88.7-mph EV.
Total Bases
Nick Fortes u1.5 Total Bases (-260)
Projection 0.74
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nick Fortes in the 4th percentile as it relates to his BABIP ability.. Nick Fortes is projected to hit 7th on the lineup card today.. The Boston Red Sox outfield defense grades out as the 3rd-strongest out of all the teams today.. Nick Fortes's average exit velocity has fallen off this year; his 87.5-mph figure last year has dropped to 85.1-mph.. Nick Fortes's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has decreased from last season to this one, falling from 15.4% to 7.1%.
ATH
@
CLE
Sun, Sep 20 • 1:40 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Shea Langeliers o0.5 Total Home Runs (+700)
Projection 0.18
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When it comes to his home run ability, Shea Langeliers ranks in the 97th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Shea Langeliers is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in this matchup.. Built 673 feet above sea level, Progressive Field has the 7th-highest elevation among all major league parks, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to more offense.. Shea Langeliers pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34.7% — 80th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 3rd-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.. Shea Langeliers has recorded a .348 Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season, placing in the 82nd percentile for offensive ability according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.
Total RBIs
Lawrence Butler o0.5 Total RBIs (+275)
Projection 0.43
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Lawrence Butler is penciled in 4th on the lineup card today, which would be an upgrade from his 59% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.. The #2 park in the majors for boosting base hits to lefties, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Progressive Field.. Built 673 feet above sea level, Progressive Field has the 7th-highest elevation among all major league parks, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to more offense.. Batting from the opposite that Gavin Williams throws from, Lawrence Butler will have an edge in today's game.. Lawrence Butler has a 96th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.2%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of the league's 3rd-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.
CHC
@
CIN
Sun, Sep 20 • 1:40 PM ET
Total Bases
Ian Happ o1.5 Total Bases (+125)
Projection 1.8
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Ian Happ ranks in the 90th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Ian Happ is projected to hit 5th in the batting order today.. The #4 ballpark in baseball for boosting home runs to LHB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Great American Ball Park.. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast forecasts the 2nd-highest temperatures of all games on the slate at 88°.. The switch-hitting Ian Happ will get to bat from his strong side (0) today against Rhett Lowder.
Total Bases
JJ Bleday o1.5 Total Bases (+175)
Projection 1.59
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The #4 ballpark in baseball for boosting home runs to LHB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Great American Ball Park.. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast forecasts the 2nd-highest temperatures of all games on the slate at 88°.. JJ Bleday pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (38.2% — 94th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game's 8th-shallowest RF fences today.. Extreme flyball batters like JJ Bleday tend to perform better against extreme groundball pitchers like David Peterson.. JJ Bleday will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to improve all of his stats.
ATL
@
HOU
Sun, Sep 20 • 2:10 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Ronald Acuna Jr. o0.5 Total Home Runs (+406)
Chris Faria
Betting Analyst
Ronald Acuna Jr. leads MLB with seven dingers in September, including three in his last four games.
The Braves star has an insane .714 SLG and 1.096 OPS this month, while he also carries a .444 average and 1.111 OPS in his career when facing Astros starter Hunter Brown.
Total
u8.5 (-123)
Chris Faria
Betting Analyst
Martin Perez has been solid down the stretch, and he'll be backed up by a Braves bullpen that ranks third in ERA (3.41).
Atlanta should be able to quell a Houston offense that’s averaging just 2.89 runs per game over their last nine contests, with three runs or fewer in six of those outings.
DET
@
CHW
Sun, Sep 20 • 2:10 PM ET
Total Hits
Munetaka Murakami o0.5 Total Hits (-127)
Colby Marchio
Contributor
Chicago White Sox rookie Munetaka Murakami has struggled at the plate lately, but there are plenty of reasons to expect a bounce-back against Detroit Tigers right-hander Troy Melton. Murakami owns the No. 1 rating on Batters-Box among players with at least 100 at-bats and records a hit nearly 62% of the time when rated elite. He also covers more than 70% of Melton’s arsenal. Melton has struggled against left-handed hitters, with his last 60 allowing a 46.5% hard-hit rate, 11.6% barrel rate, and .368 xBA. Murakami is worth backing to record a hit at -145 or better.
Total Bases
Kyle Teel o1.5 Total Bases (+188)
Projection 1.47
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Kyle Teel in the 92nd percentile as it relates to his BABIP ability.. Kyle Teel is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in this game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Guaranteed Rate Field as the 6th-best park in the majors for boosting offensive stats to left-handed batters.. Long-balls are generally more common at parks with shallow fences, and Guaranteed Rate Field has the 3rd-shallowest in Major League Baseball.. Hitting from the opposite that Troy Melton throws from, Kyle Teel will have an edge in today's game.
WAS
@
STL
Sun, Sep 20 • 2:15 PM ET
Total Bases
James Wood o1.5 Total Bases (+126)
Projection 1.72
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects James Wood as the 4th-best hitter in MLB when assessing his BABIP talent.. James Wood is projected to hit 1st in the batting order in this matchup.. On average, the fence height at Busch Stadium is the 9th-shortest among all major league baseball stadiums.. The weather forecast projects temperatures in this matchup to reach the highest level on the slate at 89°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. James Wood has seen a substantial increase in his exit velocity on flyballs recently; just compare his 104.7-mph average over the last 14 days to his seasonal EV of 100.7-mph.
Total Bases
JJ Wetherholt o1.5 Total Bases (+153)
Projection 1.71
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
As it relates to his overall offensive skill, JJ Wetherholt ranks in the 87th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. JJ Wetherholt is projected to bat 1st in the batting order in today's game.. On average, the fence height at Busch Stadium is the 9th-shortest among all major league baseball stadiums.. The weather forecast projects temperatures in this matchup to reach the highest level on the slate at 89°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. JJ Wetherholt will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Jake Irvin today.
TOR
@
TEX
Sun, Sep 20 • 2:35 PM ET
Total
u7.5 (-120)
Dustin Saracini
Senior Analyst
I haven't seen a Spencer Miles opener day I haven't liked, so we're going to ride with the Under here. Miles hasn't allowed an earned run since Aug. 8, throwing up 14 consecutive zeros in each appearance since - we'll take that to the bank. On the other side is veteran ace Jacob deGrom, who gets a struggling Toronto Blue Jays offense. The bats are cold in Toronto, scoring two or fewer runs in three of their last four games.
Total Bases
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. o1.5 Total Bases (+145)
Projection 1.59
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
When assessing his batting average skill, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is projected as the 3rd-best hitter in baseball by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in this matchup.. On average, the fence height at Globe Life Field is the 7th-shortest among all major league baseball stadiums.. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has made significant improvements with his Barrel% recently, improving his 7.1% seasonal rate to 20% over the past week.. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 90.5-mph to 93.7-mph over the past 14 days.
SEA
@
COL
Sun, Sep 20 • 3:10 PM ET
Total Bases
Lazaro Montes o1.5 Total Bases (+133)
Projection 1.64
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Lazaro Montes in the 94th percentile when it comes to his home run ability.. The #1 park in the majors for boosting offensive stats, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Coors Field.. Built 5197 feet above sea level, Coors Field has the highest elevation among all parks, which generally leads to higher offensive output.. Lazaro Montes will have the handedness advantage against Tomoyuki Sugano in today's matchup.. Lazaro Montes is likely to have the upper hand against every reliever throughout the game, since the bullpen of the Colorado Rockies only has 1 same-handed RP.
Total Bases
Cal Raleigh o1.5 Total Bases (+100)
Projection 2.13
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Cal Raleigh projects as the 5th-best home run batter in the league, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Cal Raleigh is penciled in 4th in the lineup today.. The #1 park in the majors for boosting offensive stats, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Coors Field.. Built 5197 feet above sea level, Coors Field has the highest elevation among all parks, which generally leads to higher offensive output.. As a switch-hitter who performs better from the 0 side of the plate, Cal Raleigh will have the advantage of batting from from his good side against Tomoyuki Sugano in this game.
MIN
@
LAA
Sun, Sep 20 • 4:07 PM ET
Total Bases
Mike Trout o1.5 Total Bases (+145)
Projection 1.82
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Mike Trout projects as the 8th-best hitter in the league, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Mike Trout is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in this game.. Angel Stadium has the 2nd-lowest fences in MLB.. As far as temperature and humidity go, the 4th-most suitable hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this contest.. Out of every team in action today, the 3rd-weakest outfield defense is that of the Minnesota Twins.
Total Bases
Royce Lewis o1.5 Total Bases (+150)
Projection 1.58
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Angel Stadium has the 2nd-lowest fences in MLB.. As far as temperature and humidity go, the 4th-most suitable hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this contest.. The Los Angeles Angels infield defense profiles as the 3rd-worst among all the teams playing today.. Royce Lewis's launch angle this year (20.8°) is a considerable increase over his 17.5° mark last year.. Royce Lewis's launch angle recently (24.2° in the last two weeks' worth of games) is significantly higher than his 20.8° seasonal angle.
MIA
@
SD
Sun, Sep 20 • 4:10 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Fernando Tatis Jr. o0.5 Total Home Runs (+390)
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst
Fernando Tatis Jr. is crushing Sandy Alcantara’s pitch mix.
He has managed an impressive .333 ISO with a 20.7% barrel rate and 69.2% hard hit rate over the last 25 games when facing Alcantara’s four most-used pitches.
Using the same criteria, Tatis Jr. owns a low 4.3% walk rate. He is tearing the cover off the ball and not doing so aggressively. He’s not grinding out free passes.
Moneyline
SD (-134)
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst
I’m on the San Diego Padres up to 58%.
Sandy Alcantara has allowed at least four runs in four of his past five starts, posting a 5.52 xFIP along the way.
It’ll be tough to get back on track against the San Diego Padres. They rank sixth in hard hit rate, fifth in xwOBA, and first in xSLG against right-handed pitching in September.
NYY
@
AZ
Sun, Sep 20 • 4:10 PM ET
Total
u8.5 (-114)
Colby Marchio
Contributor
The way Warren has been pitching, runs will already be at a premium for the Diamondbacks, while if Burnes can lock in, it should be the same for the Yankees. The Arizona right-hander owns a 3.39 xERA and just a 37.50% hard-hit rate since returning. If he can limit those hard-hit balls, this could end up being a pitching duel.
Moneyline
NYY (-114)
Colby Marchio
Contributor
Will Warren has been pitching at an elite level lately, posting a 0.64 ERA, 3.08 FIP and 1.00 WHIP over his last three starts. With Arizona striking out at a high rate as of late, Warren has a strong opportunity to shut down the Diamondbacks lineup.
On the other side, Corbin Burnes has been solid since returning, but he is allowing a near-17% barrel rate, while opposing hitters have a .360 xwOBA.
With the Yankees generating a hard-hit rate above 43% lately, I expect New York to bounce back and give Warren enough run support this afternoon.
SF
@
LAD
Sun, Sep 20 • 4:10 PM ET
Strikeouts Thrown
MW
Matt Wilkinson o2.5 Strikeouts Thrown (+113)
Projection 3.14
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Brennan Miller grades out as a Pitchers Umpire and is likely to be umping in this game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Dodger Stadium as the 7th-best field in the majors for strikeouts.. Given that flyball pitchers hold a sizeable advantage over flyball hitters, Matthew Wilkinson and his 39.9% underlying FB% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a favorable spot today matching up with 3 opposing FB hitters.
Total Bases
Bryce Eldridge o1.5 Total Bases (+164)
Projection 1.56
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Bryce Eldridge in the 90th percentile when estimating his home run talent.. Bryce Eldridge is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in today's game.. Dodger Stadium ranks as the #2 field in baseball for left-handed home runs, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. On average, the fence height at Dodger Stadium is the lowest among all major league baseball stadiums.. As far as temperature and humidity go, the 5th-best hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this game.
MIL
@
BAL
Sun, Sep 20 • 7:20 PM ET
Hits+Runs+RBIs
Garrett Mitchell o1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (-110)
Colby Marchio
Contributor
Garrett Mitchell is easily my favorite bat to back in this matchup. The Brewers outfielder has been destroying right-handed pitching, posting a .697 SLG, .333 ISO, 37.5% line drive rate, near-60% hard-hit rate and 16.7% barrel rate over his last 10 games. He also owns a .821 SLG and 1.254 OPS against the last 30 right-handed pitchers he has faced. Mitchell draws Orioles right-hander Brandon Young, who has allowed lefties to produce an 11% barrel rate, .374 xBA and .673 xSLG over his last 30. Mitchell also clears this prop over 68% of the time in elite ratings. Take this down to -125.
Hits+Runs+RBIs
Pete Alonso o1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (+105)
Colby Marchio
Contributor
Pete Alonso has been seeing the baseball extremely well, making him my favorite option from the Orioles' side in this matchup. The Polar Bear enters Sunday with a .658 SLG and .395 ISO, while posting a near-20% barrel rate over his last 10 games. He has also crushed right-handed pitching recently, sporting a .731 SLG and 25% barrel rate over his last 30 at-bats against righties. Jacob Misiorowski has been lights-out against right-handed hitters, but the last 30 he has faced own at least a .346 xBA and .436 xSLG. At plus money, Alonso is worth backing.
TB
@
NYY
Tue, Sep 22 • 1:05 PM ET
Total RBIs
Austin Wells o0.5 Total RBIs (+305)
Projection 0.41
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Yankee Stadium ranks as the #7 ballpark in the majors for left-handed home runs, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Yankee Stadium has the 7th-lowest average fence height among all parks.. Hitting from the opposite that Drew Rasmussen throws from, Austin Wells will have an edge in today's matchup.. Extreme flyball batters like Austin Wells generally hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Drew Rasmussen.. The Tampa Bay Rays infield defense grades out as the 2nd-weakest among every team on the slate today.
Total RBIs
Cody Bellinger o0.5 Total RBIs (+206)
Projection 0.55
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Cody Bellinger in the 89th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive talent.. Cody Bellinger is projected to hit 4th in the lineup in today's game.. Yankee Stadium ranks as the #7 ballpark in the majors for left-handed home runs, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Yankee Stadium has the 7th-lowest average fence height among all parks.. Hitting from the opposite that Drew Rasmussen throws from, Cody Bellinger will have an edge in today's game.
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