We’re looking for runs and more runs in tonight's Padres vs. Diamondbacks predictions, as both starting pitchers have struggled this season.
The San Diego Padres visit the Arizona Diamondbacks at Chase Field as slight -107 favorites at Polymarket, looking to split the four-game series.
With two of three games going Over so far, we’ll see much of the same tonight. Let’s get right into my MLB picks for Thursday, Aug. 6.
Who will win Padres vs Diamondbacks tonight: Diamondbacks moneyline (-103)
The Arizona Diamondbacks’ offense has been as potent as they come over the last week, scoring five or more runs in five of their last six games.
Against a wild pitcher like Walker Buehler, who has a 4.45 xERA this season, you can rest assured there will be a lot of traffic on the base paths tonight.
On the other side is the Diamondbacks’ No. 12 prospect Kohl Drake, who’s run into some trouble of his own this season but has shown glimpses of becoming a serviceable pitcher in two of his last three starts.
Over those two games, he’s allowed just three earned runs across nine innings while striking out 11. Against a struggling Padres offense (24th in baseball with a .694 team OPS), I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt tonight.
I’d play this one up to -115.
Looking for more moneyline plays? Jason Wilson’s MLB predictions and moneyline picks for Thursday have you covered.
COVERS INTEL: Buehler has a problem this year, and that's his hard-hit percentage (40.6%) — the second-highest of his career coming into tonight; his .234 xBA against is the third-highest of his nine-year MLB tenure. That should play in our favor over the course of his start.
Padres vs Diamondbacks Over/Under pick: Over 9.5 (+119)
For as bad as Buehler has been, Kohl still gives up the long ball himself, allowing three home runs across his last three starts. His 15% barrel rate and .299 xBA against him should be enough for the Padres to help us get across the line.
Both Ketel Marte and Nolan Arenado have taken Buehler deep in their career, which means the righty’s 40.6% hard-hit rate should come into play tonight.
I’d play this up to -145 and am dropping a full unit here.
- ML/RL bets: 0-2, -2 units
- Over/Under bets: 0-2, -2 units
Padres vs Diamondbacks weather
The Diamondbacks play at Chase Field, which is a dome. The weather will have no impact on the game conditions tonight.
Padres vs Diamondbacks odds
- Moneyline: Padres (-107) | Diamondbacks (-103)
- Run line: Padres -1.5 (+152) | Diamondbacks +1.5 (-168)
- Over/Under: Over 9.5 (+119) | Under 9.5 (-131)
Padres vs Diamondbacks trend
These two teams have exchanged blows this series, scoring 33 runs across three games so far — flying Over the number in two of the three matchups. Find more MLB betting trends for Padres vs. Diamondbacks.
How to watch Padres vs Diamondbacks and game info
| Location | Chase Field, Phoenix, AZ |
| Date | Thursday, August 6, 2026 |
| First pitch | 9:40 p.m. ET |
| TV | Padres.TV, Dbacks.TV |
| Padres starting pitcher | Walker Buehler (6-5, 5.18 ERA) |
| Diamondbacks starting pitcher | Kohl Drake (0-0, 4.85 ERA) |
Padres vs Diamondbacks latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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