MLB Predictions and Moneyline Picks for Thursday, August 6

It's a slightly reduced slate on getaway day, but there is MLB action from noon until late, and I'm breaking down all the action with today's MLB moneyline picks.

I'm going with a chalk-heavy approach in these MLB picks, but there is some value to be found on underdogs, notably the San Diego Padres at even money against the Arizona Diamondbacks to cap off Thursday, Aug. 6.

MLB moneyline picks for August 6

Matchup	Pick
Angels vs Orioles	-186
Athletics vs Reds	-156
Mets vs Guardians	-104
Pirates vs Brewers	-127
Blue Jays vs Cubs	-113
Tigers vs Mariners	+117
Nationals vs Phillies	-317
White Sox vs Red Sox	-178
Marlins vs Braves	+133
Twins vs Royals	+117
Padres vs Diamondbacks	+100

Prices courtesy of Polymarket as of August 6.

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Expert MLB moneyline picks for August 6

Angels vs Orioles: Orioles (-186)

Orioles win probability: 65%

I want to bet against the juice, but the Los Angeles Angels have one of the worst offenses over the last 30 days, strike out more than anyone, and are deploying a starter in Ryan Johnson who suppresses hard contact but not much else. They traded one of their best hitters, Jo Adell, at the deadline, and simply won't put up much resistance against Brandon Young.

Meanwhile, the Baltimore Orioles have about a league-average offense in the last month. That'll be enough.

Athletics vs Reds: Reds (-156)

Reds win probability: 61%

The A's showed some promise early, but with Nick Kurtz sidelined again, Brent Rooker out for the season, and Zack Gelof not quite game-ready, the offense has completely dried up.

And even aside from the injuries, the Athletics own the second-worst road offense in baseball this season with an 82 wRC+ (league average is 100). Even at a hitter-friendly park like Great American Ballpark, I give the Cincinnati Reds the edge to get the job done at home. 

Mets vs Guardians: Guardians (-104)

Guardians win probability: 51%

We've only got coin-flip odds here because Nolan McLean is starting for the New York Mets, so I'll grab the home team. Foster Griffin makes his Cleveland Guardians debut, and the Mets have already waved the white flag on the season. I don't necessarily believe in Griffin's long-term success with one of the slowest fastballs in the game, but as long as he keeps locating, he should keep the Mets at bay.

Pirates vs Brewers: Brewers (-127)

Brewers win probability: 56%

Pittsburgh Pirates starting pitcher Braxton Ashcraft has hit a wall. Over his last six starts, he owns a 6.75 ERA and has allowed nine home runs in 30 2/3 innings. Ignore the 4-1 record in that span, because the Pirates have given him enough run support to withstand those headwinds. Ashcraft did not, however, pick up the win against the Milwaukee Brewers when he surrendered five runs in five innings on July 11. Milwaukee's a well-oiled machine and has the third-best home record in MLB.

Blue Jays vs Cubs: Blue Jays (-113)

Blue Jays win probability: 53%

Very tempted to take the hometown Chicago Cubs as underdogs here, but the starting pitching matchup between Dylan Cease and David Peterson is too lopsided to ignore. The Toronto Blue Jays should be somewhere around -125 on the moneyline even with an offense that wouldn't hit water if it fell out of a boat.

Tigers vs Mariners: Tigers (+117)

Tigers win probability: 46%

Framber Valdez is an extreme ground-ball pitcher, which will help him navigate the winds blowing to right field at T-Mobile Park tonight. I don't give him the edge over Bryce Miller, who has been excellent, but this is a terrific value play on the Detroit Tigers, who have won four of five on this West Coast road swing.

Nationals vs Phillies: Phillies (-317)

Phillies win probability: 76%

It's Miles Mikolas vs. Cristopher Sanchez. It's as lopsided a pitching matchup as you'll see. I can't, in good conscience, go with the underdog in a cheeky bit of counterprogramming. 

White Sox vs Red Sox: Red Sox (-178)

Red Sox win probability: 64%

Until the Chicago White Sox can wake up an offense that owns an 81 wRC+ over the last 30 days, I won't be backing them in a matchup like this. While Ranger Suarez hasn't gone deep into either of his starts since coming off the injured list, the Boston Red Sox have the best bullpen ERA in baseball this year, so they are equipped to deal with extra use if the lefty gets the early hook.

Marlins vs Braves: Marlins (+133)

Marlins win probability: 43%

As good as the Atlanta Braves have been at Truist Park, this is a rock-solid value play. The Miami Marlins aren't especially good, but veteran lefty Martin Perez has largely been smoke and mirrors, with his 4.42 expected ERA far higher than his actual 3.24 ERA on the season. 

Twins vs Royals: Twins (+117)

Twins win probability: 46%

The Minnesota Twins have hit the skids offensively, especially since Byron Buxton went down with yet another injury. But I like getting plus money on the better overall team, as I don't think the starting-pitcher matchup between Bailey Ober and Michael Wacha gives the Kansas City Royals this much of an advantage.

Padres vs Diamondbacks: Padres (+100)

Padres win probability: 50%

Kohl Drake ain't it. Look, Walker Buehler ITYOOL 2026 isn't either, but Drake has allowed three home runs in 13 innings at the MLB level and 11 more in 66 frames at Triple-A this season. The San Diego Padres don't handle lefties, which is somewhat surprising, but Fernando Tatis Jr. has been exemplary in the split. At even money, the Friars are the pick.

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