Let's kick off this beautiful Sunday with three of my favorite home run props and predictions for today's MLB slate.
Find out why I am backing Kyle Stowers, Spencer Jones, and Rafael Devers.
Here are my favorite MLB picks for Sunday, Sept. 6.
MLB home run props for today
For help understanding Polymarket probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Player to hit a HR | Chance |
|---|---|
 Kyle Stowers |
17% |
 Spencer Jones |
16% |
 Rafael Devers |
22% |
| 💲Today's HR parlay | 118.00x |
Home run prediction: Kyle Stowers (17%)
Miami Marlins slugger Kyle Stowers has been on a heater, and we have to back him to leave the yard against Chicago Cubs right-hander Clay Holmes.
Over his last few games, Stowers has been generating too much hard contact to ignore. Over his last 30 at-bats against right-handed pitching, he has an 83.3% hard-hit rate and a 25% barrel rate. On top of that, he owns a .577 SLG, .977 OPS, and .269 ISO.
According to Batters-Box, where he owns an elite rating today, Stowers covers more than 83% of Holmes' pitch mix.
Despite Holmes' success against left-handed hitters this season, the way Stowers sees and hits the ball makes this hard to pass up.
Take this down to 20%.
- Time: 1:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MIAM, MARQ
Home run prediction: Spencer Jones (16%)
In my Yankees vs. Padres predictions, I wrote that I liked Ben Rice over Spencer Jones, but I kept coming back to Jones. He is 100% a go this evening.
Jones has been crushing right-handed pitching over his last 30 at-bats, owning a .538 SLG and .307 ISO while generating a 62.5% hard-hit rate and 25% barrel rate.
Over the last 60 left-handed hitters Padres starter Michael King has faced, they are generating a barrel rate of nearly 10%, while posting a .291 xBA, .548 xSLG and .406 xwOBA.
Five of Jones' last 10 batted balls have been at least 102 mph off the bat. It is hard to pass up backing a guy making that much hard contact.
Take this down to 20%.
- Time: 4:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: YES, SDPA
Home run prediction: Rafael Devers (22%)
Another heavy hitter who has been making a boatload of hard contact is San Francisco Giants slugger Rafael Devers. Over his last 10 games, he has generated the third-highest barrel rate while posting a 62.1% hard-hit rate and .949 SLG.
This afternoon, he draws New York Mets right-hander Christian Scott, who has been getting lit up by left-handed hitters. The last 30 lefties he has faced own a .346 xBA, .526 xSLG and .383 xwOBA. Scott is also allowing 2.70 HR/9 during that span.
Devers enters Sunday with the second-highest matchup rating on Batters-Box, where he covers 100% of Scott's pitch mix.
Ride the hot bat.
Take this down to 24%.
- Time: 1:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: SNY, NBCSBA
- HR picks: 120-411, +25.3 units
Best home run combo for Sept. 6
| Kyle Stowers |
Trade Now 118.00x |
| Spencer Jones |
|
| Rafael Devers |
Want more baseball parlays? Check out our MLB parlay picks page!
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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