My Yankees vs. Padres predictions and MLB picks for Sunday, Sept. 6, back New York as a 51% favorite.
After a 5-1 N.Y. win on Saturday, the Yanks look to Gerrit Cole to keep their winning ways alive. First pitch comes to you live from Petco Park at 4:10 p.m. ET.
Who will win Yankees vs Padres today: Yankees (51%)
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
Very simple get-in-and-get-out reasoning: The San Diego Padres have been lifeless at the dish.
Over their last 12 games, they own an 82 wRC+, .128 ISO, and .631 OPS while producing just a 5.9% barrel rate.
That lineup now draws New York Yankees ace Gerrit Cole, who has been nails over his last five starts, owning a 2.97 ERA and 3.02 xERA while allowing just a 3.49% barrel rate to opposing hitters.
Padres starter and former Yankee Michael King has been very solid over his last three starts as well, but the Yankees have been light-years better than the Padres at the dish this past week. Lean on the hot bats and the more consistent arm.
Play to 54%.
COVERS INTEL: Spencer Jones has been crushing right-handed pitching over his last 30 at-bats, owning a .538 SLG and .307 ISO while generating a 62.5% hard-hit rate and 25% barrel rate.
Yankees vs Padres Over/Under pick: Under 6.5 (44%)
With how poorly the Padres have been swinging the bat lately and how well Gerrit Cole and Michael King have been on the rubber, this game should stay under this low total.
Cole has been allowing a ton of hard contact over his last five starts, but that comes with being a heavy fastball pitcher.
He still has a 1.12 WHIP over that stretch. King has done a great job limiting hard-hit balls across his last five starts, where he also sports a 1.71 ERA and 1.04 WHIP.
This feels like a 3-2 ballgame.
Yankees vs Padres home run prediction: Ben Rice (18%)
Yankees young slugger Ben Rice was the one guy who really stood out to leave the yard in this matchup. I also didn’t mind Spencer Jones or Fernando Tatis Jr., but Rice has been making a ton of hard contact while posting a 15% barrel rate over his last 30 plate appearances against right-handed pitchers.
Over his last 10 games, he also sports a .600 SLG and .659 xSLG while elevating the ball 65.6% of the time.
- 2026 MLB bets: 465-926, -6.9 units
- Home run bets: 120-411, +25.3 units
Yankees vs Padres weather
Ideal baseball weather this afternoon, with temperatures in the mid-80s and a 9 mph wind blowing in. Should make for a beautiful day at the ballpark and a great game to take in.
Yankees vs Padres odds
- Moneyline: Yankees 51% | Padres 50%
- Run line: Yankees -1.5 (38%) | Padres +1.5 (63%)
- Over/Under: Over 6.5 (57%) | Under 6.5 (44%)
Yankees vs Padres trend
The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 23 of their last 35 away games (+9.85 Units / 25% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Padres.
How to watch Yankees vs Padres and game info
| Location | Petco Park, San Diego, CA |
| Date | Sunday, Sept. 6, 2026 |
| First pitch | 4:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | YES, Padres.TV |
| Yankees starting pitcher | Gerrit Cole (8-7, 3.29 ERA) |
| Padres starting pitcher | Michael King (9-9, 3.11 ERA) |
Yankees vs Padres latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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