The Chicago Cubs and Detroit Tigers will begin an intriguing series this evening.
Two strikeout-heavy throwers are on the mound tonight, and my Cubs vs. Tigers predictions are targeting Seiya Suzuki's strikeout prop as a result.
Here are my full MLB picks for Friday, June 6 from Detroit's Comerica Park, with first pitch scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET on Apple TV+.
Cubs vs Tigers prediction
My Cubs vs Tigers best bet: Seiya Suzuki Over 1.5 strikeouts (+125 at Bet365)
It's Tarik Skubal day, and you'd be hard-pressed to bet against him in this matchup. However, there's little value in backing the Detroit Tigers ace.
Skubal boasts a K rate in the 96th percentile of baseball. That's where the value lies — not in a straight strikeout prop, but in targeting a specific player.
Seiya Suzuki rarely strikes out, partly because he faces changeups infrequently. The reason is apparent: teams know he crushes them.
Check his stats: a .350 batting average, .750 slugging percentage, and .491 wOBA against changeups. So, most teams avoid throwing him that pitch, which explains why he's only seen it 8% of the time this season.
Skubal, however, is an exception, and he'll likely use his changeup against Suzuki.
Despite Suzuki's strong numbers, he also swings and misses a lot against changeups. Among active Chicago Cubs, he ranks second in K rate and whiff rate against the pitch.
You might think it's a small sample, but last season's full data showed an even higher K rate nearing 40%. If anything, his swing-and-miss tendency is due for negative regression, not positive.
That's trouble against Skubal, whose changeup, like most of his pitches this season, is an elite weapon in his arsenal.
The young star will arrive at this game with the changeup producing a 49.2% whiff rate, but perhaps just as importantly, a batting average of .163 with a hard-hit rate that's well below the league average.
Skubal is not going to shy away from throwing this pitch, and with that comes the increased likelihood that he can expose perhaps the one pitch that Suzuki will strike out at a reasonably high clip.
Lastly, a key portion of this is where Suzuki is batting in the order, and being scheduled to go third adds some great value. Skubal's outs prop is set at 18.5, and even if he falls short of that, you'd still expect a performance that works him deep into the game, delivering three head-to-head matchups with Suzuki.
Using a probability model that emphasizes Suzuki's struggles with the changeup, I made the fair price on this prop -110 if Skubal sees him for three plate appearances, and around +118 if he only sees him twice.
Either way, there is value in this number, and the opportunity to have such a large edge with three plate appearances was enough for me to make it my favorite bet in the game.
Cubs vs Tigers same-game parlay (SGP)
Seiya Suzuki Over 1.5 strikeouts
Tarik Skubal Under 7.5 strikeouts
The dueling narratives in this same-game parlay give us a nice boost for the same-game parlay.
While there's a ton to suggest that Suzuki gets a ton of whiff today, there's not much elsewhere in the lineup. You could consider throwing Dansby Swanson into the mix here because, much like Suzuki, Swanson struggles to put the main putaway pitch in the changeup into play.
Outside of that, though, every other player in the Cubs lineup has a below-average K rate against Skubal's two primary putout pitches. I made his fair number almost right at seven strikeouts.
Cubs vs Tigers odds
Cubs vs Tigers live odds
Cubs vs Tigers opening odds
- Moneyline: Chicago +158 | Detroit -189
- Run line: Chicago +1.5 (-135) | Detroit -1.5 (+115)
- Over/Under: Over 7 (-110) | Under 7 (-110)
Cubs vs Tigers trend
The Cubs have hit the Over in 35 of their last 57 games (+8.55 Units / 12% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Cubs vs. Tigers.
How to watch Cubs vs Tigers and game info
| Location | Comerica Park, Detroit, MI |
| Date | Friday, 6-6-2025 |
| First pitch | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | Apple TV+ |
| Cubs starting pitcher | Ben Brown (3-3, 5.72 ERA) |
| Tigers starting pitcher | Tarik Skubal (5-2, 2.26 ERA) |
Cubs vs Tigers latest injuries
Cubs vs Tigers weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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